Marquee Matchups: NFL Wild Card Weekend

The NFL playoffs put the 12 best teams in the league together for one final month of football action, and it’s fantastic. The games are so much more meaningful, and usually don’t feature any truly bad teams that lead to disappointing or boring contests. The same is true in DFS.

With a limited slate of games, and with only the best teams represented, we can’t rely on old standby processes like starting a kicker against the Jaguars, or playing the defense facing the Jets. Instead, Grinders will have to dig deep into the matchups to figure out which players have the best chance to shine in these marquee games.

So for Wild Card Weekend, here are your marquee matchups to target in all four Wild Card Weekend games.

Cardinals at Panthers

Luke Kuechly

Panthers Defense vs. ARI – Over the final four games of the regular season, which all ended in Panther wins, the Carolina defense picked up 2, 3, 3 and 6 sacks, while collecting four fumble recoveries and five interceptions over that same span. That’s an average of multiple impact plays per game, which is what we’re looking for in DFS. Tournaments are won on defensive touchdowns, not on low points allowed totals.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, regressed on offense as the season went on, as injuries at the quarterback position sunk their previously promising passing attack. Over the final four games, the Cardinals allowed nine sacks, and they coughed up four interceptions in their last two games. They haven’t scored more than 18 points since Week 10 and are maybe the safest offense to target in DFS.

When you combine these two factors, it makes the Carolina defense the safest and highest upside defense at the same time. I believe they’re a must-play team at the position across the industry this weekend.

Ravens at Steelers

Steelers Defensive Backs vs. BAL – It might seem like targeting the Steelers defensive backs is the thing to do, as they’re down to backups thanks to injuries to a couple of key contributors. But the stats and tape tell us otherwise.

Devin Hester

Football Outsiders’ DVOA has charted the Steelers are being especially vulnerable to “Other WR” (which means a team’s third, fourth, and fifth options in the passing game), and to tight ends according to their DVOA metric. This falls in line with the box scores from this season. The top receiver performances against the Steelers came from A.J. Green, Kenny Stills (who is barely a top-two receiver), T.Y. Hilton, Kelvin Benjamin, and then a bunch of third and fourth options. Donte Moncrief, Devin Hester, Nate Washington, Harry Douglas, T.J. Graham, Louis Murphy and Travis Benjamin all had pretty big days against the Steelers, as they lined up against lesser defenders in an already banged-up defensive backfield.

I don’t think Torrey Smith is a bad play, but don’t count out the possibility of another Baltimore passing game option emerging to win some tournaments for those bold enough to roster them. Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown have both seen at least one target in each of the past five weeks, with the former actually scoring twice over that span. Grinders seeking to really differentiate their lineups should consider throwing a lineup or two out there with Aiken in a WR spot, and enjoy the savings by spending up elsewhere.

Bengals at Colts

Colts Running Back Defense vs. CIN – The Colts have not allowed a ton of production on the ground to running backs this season, as teams have struggled to get a running game going against Indy on several occasions, and often find themselves needing to throw to keep up with the high-octane offense led by Andrew Luck. But that doesn’t mean running backs are bad plays against Indianapolis.

In fact, on six occasions this season, the Colts have allowed a 4+ reception, 50+ yard performance to opposing runners, which would be good for nine points on DraftKings before the back even took a carry. There’s upside in targeting the Indy defense with receiving backs, as well, as we saw in Darren Sproles’ huge game against them in Week 2.

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Here’s just one example from that game, which will show how poorly the Colts defend backs out of the backfield. Darren Sproles is going to run the most basic of running back routes, the angle route. His job is to get outside of the tackle and then cut back toward the middle of the field, as if he were running a post as a receiver. (This was a primary component of the San Diego offense early this season when they torched the Seattle defense, as we profiled on RotoGrinders.)

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As Sproles turns the corner, his defender is turned completely in the wrong direction. The hips of the linebacker are facing the sideline, while Sproles is about to duck inside to run his route. By giving up inside leverage with his hip positioning, he’s set the whole defense up for failure on the play.

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By the time he’s able to turn around and start heading in Sproles’ direction, he is thinking about getting a good angle to chase him down the field, rather than worrying about breaking toward the ball. The act of flipping his hips and then driving to Sproles would have left him watching the Eagles back sprinting down the field, so instead…

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… he’s going to try to give chase to one of the league’s more dynamic runners. It results in a big gain for the Eagles.

So did the Colts learn from this mistake? A handful of plays against Washington later in the season would suggest not.

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Look familiar?

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You can see the linebacker here already tracking Roy Helu coming out of the backfield, and then just like his teammate several weeks prior…

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He gives up inside leverage with poor hip positioning (which would be avoided by backpedaling and not committing to one direction or another, or by knowing where help is on defense and funneling players in that direction, when possible).

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The Indy linebacker is caught totally off balance, and actually takes the longest route possible to recover from his mistake, as he spins all the way around to the outside after stumbling in his attempt to flip his hips and chase Helu.

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The play results in a touchdown for Washington and a very similar result to the one we saw in Week 2 against the Eagles.

The question that these examples beg is the money-making question for this weekend: Which Bengals back is the one to take advantage of these mistakes? The Colts history this season sends mixed messages.

The best rushing performances against Indy have come from backs who aren’t exactly the most explosive of athletes. Jonas Gray, Arian Foster (twice) and Shonn Greene posted the most productive rushing games from a yardage perspective against the Colts, and they all have similar athletic profiles to Jeremy Hill. But Giovani Bernard most closely resembles Roy Helu and Darren Sproles, who we saw catching passes for big gains against the Colts linebackers.

So the problem DFS players have had all season emerges again in the playoffs, as we try to figure out which Bengal back to start. I think Jeremy Hill has proven to be the better all-around player, but should Cincy find themselves trailing in this game, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bernard getting his fair share of work out of the backfield. I’ll be using both across the industry, but on a PPR site, I may lean toward Gio to distance myself from others in a GPP, and because of the upside he has in facing this struggling linebacker unit.

Lions at Cowboys

Cowboys Run Offense vs. DET – I’ve seen a lot of very smart analysts around the industry suggest that DeMarco Murray isn’t as good of a play with Ndamukong Suh allowed to play after his suspension was overturned. I understand their concerns, but I’ll politely suggest that it’s a flawed premise.

The Cowboys offensive line is like Aaron Rodgers or Calvin Johnson. It’s matchup proof. It’s elite. You can trust it in any situation. And with DeMarco Murray costing so much this weekend, he’ll likely be owned by very few other players, giving you a chance to cash in on his consistent production with confidence.

When Murray was looking uncertain to suit up for Dallas thanks to a broken hand, I profiled the dominance of the Dallas line when Joseph Randle carried the ball earlier this season, including some big runs against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is by far the league’s best run defense, with disruptive linemen and instinctive linebackers backed up by an elite run defender at safety in Kam Chancellor. The Cowboys were up to the task and picked up several huge plays on the ground.

Dallas also passed the test when they faced the league’s best player, J.J. Watt, in a Week 5 matchup against the Texans. Watt is more disruptive than even Suh, but the Cowboys were able to handle him as they ran the ball well all day against their in-state rivals.

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The Cowboys are going to run a zone run to the left on this play, and I’ve circled Watt so you can see how he’s dealt with.

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Notice how quickly Watt is up in the face of his blocker. This anticipation and burst is one of the key traits for an elite lineman, and the Houston defender has those traits in spades. But the Cowboys use that aggression against him on this play.

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The blocker allows Watt to follow his own momentum to the outside, as the play is flowing left and Watt is tracking in that direction, which will open up an inside running lane.

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This gives Murray a clean running lane and picks up a nice gain for the Cowboys.

In that game against the Texans, Murray carried the ball 31 times, and 17 of those carries went for five or more yards, with only three resulting in lost yardage. That’s ridiculous consistency against one of the league’s better defenses anchored by one of the best players in this generation.

So while there are other options at running back this week, and you’re certainly welcome to try to pick up some points from lower salary backs and pay up elsewhere, don’t count out Murray just because of the Lions or Suh. He’s a great back playing behind a ridiculously good offensive line that’s well coached and plays cohesively every week. I won’t be surprised if Murray is on the winning team in GPPs across the industry this weekend, and I hope to have him on my teams as salary allows.

About the Author

LeoTPP
LeoTPP

Leo Howell is an associate editor, weekend site manager and writer for RotoGrinders. He has played fantasy sports for as long as he can remember, and has been playing DFS since 2012. He can be found on Twitter at @LeoHowell8