NFL Grind Down: Week 10

This analysis should point you in the right direction for your Week 10 daily fantasy football games, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our FanDuel Daily Research Console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs Buffalo Bills
Chiefs Bills
Sun – 1:00 PM Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-1.5 41.5 21.5 1.5 41.5 20
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.0 12 23 1 Offense 22.3 20 15 28
Defense 22.3 20 15 28 Defense 25.0 12 23 1
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Buffalo Bills 3 5 23 14 Kansas City Chiefs 6 3 9 16
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Bowe 46 31 0 398 Watkins 67 38 5 590
Jenkins 11 8 0 66 Woods 51 28 2 294
Hammond 6 2 0 31 Hogan 15 13 1 176
Kelce 42 32 4 419 Chandler 36 23 1 290

Quick Grind

Lowest Vegas total of the week limits appeal
Tough matchups for both teams

Core Plays: KC RB Jamaal Charles (tough matchup!), BUF WR Sammy Watkins
Secondary Plays: KC TE Travis Kelce
GPP Plays: KC WR Dwayne Bowe, BUF QB Kyle Orton
Salary Relief: KC TE Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

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RB Jamaal Charles — $8800 — 14.67% of cap — 3rd-most expensive RB

Jamaal Charles wasn’t able to truly punch through the Jets stonewall front-seven in Week 9, but did cash in a TD along with his 88 total yards. Despite the mediocre performance, it’s encouraging to see Charles’ usage back above 20 touches – his 22 touches were the 2nd highest amount he’s seen this season. This week, Charles faces another stiff matchup vs a Bills squad that grades out as the 5th-best team in run defense (per Pro Football Focus), and is allowing just 71 rushing yards per game to RBs, the 4th-stingiest mark in the NFL. Just like last week, this is a game where most will be off Charles due to matchup concerns. Given the low Vegas total, rostering Charles is a purely contrarian tournament play.

WR Dwayne Bowe — $6000 — 10.0% of cap — 40th-most expensive WR

After going 6-64 and 6-55 in two cake matchups the last two weeks, it seems unlikely that Dwayne Bowe will emerge as even a reliable matchup play at WR any time soon. Bowe racked up 10 targets last week despite the Chiefs rolling early, but as usual didn’t do much other than pull in a few 10+ yard catches. This week, Bowe faces another secondary that has been beat up by featured receivers, as the Bills gave up nearly 200 yards and 2 TDs to Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell in Week 6, and 134 yards and a TD to Golden Tate in Week 5. That offers some hope for Bowe’s production, but we shouldn’t get too excited. Another 5-6 catch, 60-70 yard performance is likely in store.

TE Travis Kelce — $6200 — 10.33% of cap — 5th-most expensive TE

Well at least SOMETHING went as planned. Baby Gronk spread his wings just a bit last week, turning 5 targets into 4 catches for 67 yards and a TD. He basically dominated the Jets at will, or rather, whenever he was lucky enough to run a route and be targeted. Linebackers continue to be no match for Kelce, but the wait for him to be truly featured in the passing game continues. This week Kelce faces a Bills defense that has been middle-of-the-road vs TEs – they’ve seen lots of mediocre TEs this season but have been exposed by quality receivers (Martellus Bennett 8-70-1, Gronk 7-94). Can Baby Gronk build on last week’s success, and continue the success of the Gronkian Clan against the Bills? Given the likely low-scoring environment and the Bills stiff run-defense, Kelce will again be their best option to produce offense. Don’t bank on Kelce suddenly getting 10 targets after one solid week, but treat him as a solid low-cost TE that has massive upside.

Buffalo Bills

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WR Sammy Watkins — $8100 — 13.5% of cap — 10th-most expensive WR

Injury Update: Ian Rapoport tweeted Sunday morning that the Bills are optimistic Sammy Watkins will play

Sammy Watkins bombed another defense last week – this time the victim was the Jets, who allowed 157 yards and a TD (which of course should have been 2) on just THREE CATCHES. Watkins has 3 TDs and nearly 280 yards over his last two games and is proving basically impossible to contain. This kid can fly, and he uses his elite athleticism to consistently gain separation and blow the lid off defenses. Note that his athleticism might be a bit bottled up this week due to a groin injury that has Watkins Questionable to play — keep an eye on his health. Despite the matchup with a Chiefs defense that is allowing just the 9th-fewest FPPG to WRs, Watkins remains a high upside tournament play.

The Bills Replacement RBs

Injury Update: Ian Rapoport tweeted Sunday morning that the Bills are optimistic RB Fred Jackson will play. If FJax does go, it further muddies an already unclear backfield, and will be a downgrade to Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown.

The Bills RBs were completely shut down last week vs the Jets, and now face the defense allowing the 3rd-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. There are enough values this week that you don’t need to gamble on an ineffective timeshare backfield.

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions

Miami Dolphins Detroit Lions
Dolphins Lions
Sun – 1:00 PM Ford Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
2.5 44 20.75 -2.5 44 23.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 26.4 9 17 8 Offense 20.3 24 19 27
Defense 20.3 24 19 27 Defense 26.4 9 17 8
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Detroit Lions 1 11 1 15 Miami Dolphins 2 14 5 11
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Wallace 67 35 5 468 Johnson 37 22 2 348
Hartline 42 25 1 265 Tate 80 55 3 800
Landry 40 30 2 301 Ross 20 15 1 192
Clay 43 27 2 270 Pettigrew 14 9 0 68

Quick Grind

Modest Vegas total as two promising offenses face two of the NFL’s top defenses
Lions WR Calvin Johnson returns
The talent of both defenses makes plays from either offense high-risk/high-reward

Core Plays: DET WR Calvin Johnson
Secondary Plays: MIA WR Mike Wallace, DET QB Matt Stafford, DET WR Golden Tate
GPP Plays: MIA RB Lamar Miller, DET RBs Joique Bell & Reggie Bush, MIA TE Charles Clay
Salary Relief: MIA WR Jarvis Landry, MIA TE Charles Clay

Miami Dolphins

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WR Mike Wallace — $7000 — 11.67% of cap — 14th-most expensive WR

I called for Wallace to get the Squeaky Wheel Treatment last week, but that didn’t really come to fruition as the disgruntled WR merely tied for the team lead in targets. Wallace’s eight targets were only marginally more than the other Dolphins receivers. Wallace also only converted those 8 targets into 3 catches for 50 yards. Wallace also dropped another TD in the endzone. Although Wallace is moved around the formation and often sees targets against a variety of defenders, his likely matchups on the outside aren’t very appealing. The Lions have been surprisingly strong in coverage this season and actually allow the FEWEST FPPG to opposing WRs. I preach about Wallace’s big-play upside every week, but the matchup for both Wallace and the Dolphins offensive line limits his ceiling this week. Wallace is more contrarian than core option this week.

RB Lamar Miller — $7200 — 12.0% of cap — 11th-most expensive RB

Injury Update: Reports are that Miller will be ‘limited’ this week.

Key Injury Alert: LG Daryn Colledge is Out this week. Downgrade the Dolphins offense

Lamar Miller has been consistently efficient this season. Unfortunately he (literally) runs into the Lions defensive buzzsaw this week. Keyed by a tenacious defensive line and the exceptional play of LB DeAndre Levy, the Lions have the NFL’s 4th-best run-defense grade and are allowing the 2nd fewest rushing yards to RBs. The Dolphins exotic run schemes might free up some space for Miller, but he’s no more than a contrarian tournament option this week.

QB Ryan Tannehill — $8000 — 13.33% of cap — 9th-most expensive QB

I have stubbornly written up Ryan Tannehill as a tournament play nearly every week this season, yet somehow left him out of the Dolphins section last week. Sorry about that Grinders. Tannehill dropped 288 passing yards and 3 TDs on the Chargers last week, and also scampered for his usual 47 rushing yards. That’s the potential I preach about each week. Not familiar with OC Bill Lazor’s offense? Here’s the skinny from the last time Tannehill graced the #GrindDown: “The Lazor scheme constantly keeps defenses off-balance with exotic formations, motion, and designed runs to maximize Tanny’s athleticism.” The Dolphins offense is clearly clicking on all cylinders, but Tannehill now faces the defense that allows just 12.3 FPPG to QBs, the FEWEST in the NFL. Given the extremely favorable matchups that several QBs have this week, rostering Tannehill is an unnecessary risk.

Tournament Options: WR Jarvis Landry & TE Charles Clay

Two sneaky/crazy tournament plays in this game are the Dolphins complementary options in the passing game: WR Jarvis Landry and TE Charles Clay. I’ve written about Landry whenever the Dolphins offense is in a favorable spot, but this time the rookie gets a mention because of how unfavorable other Dolphins matchups are compared to his. The Lions, much like the Panthers, have a glaring weakness in their slot coverage. This week former-Colt Cassius Vaughn will defend the slot. If that name sounds familiar, it’s because Vaughn was repeatedly targeted and exploited as a Colt; the last time Vaughn was a defensive regular was 2012, when he had the 10th-worst coverage grade among all CBs, and gave up 794 yards and 5 TDs. Tannehill targets the open receiver (if you think this is a no-brainer think about Andy Dalton’s approach on Thursday), and Landry should have little trouble meeting that criteria this week. Another preferable option to the Dolphins outside WRs is TE Charles Clay. I’ve been waiting for Clay to get fully healthy and start being featured in this offense, and it seems that time is now. Clay hauled in 4-58-1 and 5-65-1 in Week 7 and Week 9 (with a 1-1 dud mixed in), and completely schooled Chargers LB Donald Butler last week. Clay seems capable of beating LBs with ease again which makes him tournament-viable on a weekly basis. The Lions haven’t faced a legitimate receiving TE since they gave up 72 yards to Greg Olsen in Week 2, and all of their linebackers have negative coverage grades on PFF. Clay is surprisingly pricey on FD this week but is just as capable as any of the TEs priced around him.

Detroit Lions

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WR Calvin Johnson — $8800 — 14.67% of cap — 3rd-most expensive WR

Calvin Johnson’s return this week feels kind of like seeing an old friend after a very long time. It’s like the multiple inactives and DecoyGate never even happened, and we can jump right back into how it used to be – with Calvin as an elite WR play. Miami may allow the 5th-fewest FPPG to WRs, but that ranking is fueled largely by the destruction their pass-rush has caused, not by the talent of their secondary. Dolphins #1 CB Brent Grimes is an unheralded top corner, but the last time he and the Dolphins faced an elite #1 WR, Packers WR Jordy Nelson bullied them for 9-107-1. That performance should be the barometer for Calvin this week. He’s a top-5 WR again.

QB Matthew Stafford — $8500 — 14.17% of cap — 4th-most expensive QB

Though we weren’t able to benefit due to the early start in London, Stafford had a second straight solid performance (on the stat sheet) with 325 passing yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. With Megatron’s maintenance nearly complete, and Reggie Bush also in line to play this week, we’ll finely be able to see the REAL Matt Stafford again. Unfortunately it comes against the defense allowing the 2nd-fewest FPPG to QBs. As is the case with almost all dominant defenses these days, the Dolphins disgusting pass-rush completely disrupts opposing passing games. It also masks some personnel deficiencies in the Dolphins secondary.

Nonetheless, the Dolphins have held 2 of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced to less than 200 sack-adjusted yards, and those 2 QBs were Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers. The one QB to transcend the Dolphins pass rush was Aaron Rodgers, and even he was constantly under duress. I don’t think there’s any middle ground here: either Stafford will be decimated by the Dolphins rush, or he’ll Megatron Bomb his way to a Lions victory and a strong performance. The matchup is fascinating. The upside AND downside are undeniable. And Stafford is the ultimate risk/reward QB this week.

WR Golden Tate — $8200 — 13.67% of cap — 9th-most expensive WR

Tate’s golden run likely comes to an end this week with the return of Calvin Johnson. He simply won’t be the featured option any longer, which won’t be reflected in his price for several weeks. Tate should still produce modestly, but there’s just not much value in rostering him at his current price with Megatron back in the picture.

Detroit RB City

Bell — $6700 — 11.17% of cap — 17th-most expensive RB
Bush — $6600 — 11.0% of cap — 19th-most expensive RB

With the return of Reggie Bush and emergence of Theo Riddick, the Lions backfield is now muddier than ever. Lions coaches have suggested that Riddick will still be utilized even though Bush is healthy, which likely means the two will sap touches from each other; it also means that neither will be an attractive DFS play until we see how their snaps and touches shake out. Bell should still control the Lion’s share (see what I did there?) of traditional carries, but again, the other two backs will leech touches from him. He’s the best bet for a TD, but at his price you can find alternatives with higher upside or more guaranteed volume. Most everyone will avoid the entire trio until we see how they coexist, which gives them a bit of contrarian appeal in tournaments. But the safe (and smart) play here is to avoid the Lions RBs like everyone else.

NFL Grind Down Page 1Page 2

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About the Author

ohnjz
ohnjz

Ohnjz (JJ) was the Director of Daily Fantasy Sports at StarStreet until August 2014 when the company was acquired by Draftkings. Before working with StarStreet, Ohnjz was a player on the site, qualifying for the 2013 PFFC Finals. JJ spends way too much time writing the NFL Grind Down each week, and is really, truly, grateful you took the time to check out his work. You can follow him on Twitter @ohnjz