RotoTalk: The Empty Bullpen

Starting pitcher selection is at the heart of what we do as daily fantasy baseball enthusiasts. On Daily Joust, if you whiff on your starting pitcher, you probably aren’t winning. Sure, there are nights where your hitters can carry you, but I don’t recommend going into the fray without a carefully selected starting pitcher. We’ve covered a lot of the basics regarding starting pitcher selection in prior pieces, but today I want to cover a specific situation that one should consider – what happens when the bullpen’s empty?

jered weaver

Bullpen Fatigue

It happens. A starting pitcher comes nowhere close to finishing what he started. Take the case of the man to the right. Jered Weaver left his May 28th start against the Yankees just two pitches into the 3rd hitter of the game, leaving the bullpen to get all 27 outs. Ultimately, the Angels used 5 relievers en route to a 9-8 victory over the boys from the Bronx. That isn’t the worst thing in the world, but when you pile that heavy usage of the bullpen onto the previous two days that both featured 3 relievers used, there were probably a handful of arms that simply weren’t available for game two of that Yankees series. So, what did that mean for that day’s starter Dan Haren ? Simply put, he was going to be hung out to dry. Whether he pitched well or poorly was irrelevant – the Angels needs some innings to give their bullpen a chance to recover…never mind that he threw 126 pitches in his previous outing.

Approaching a Fatigued Bullpen

We’ll encounter this situation nearly every day, so how best do we spin it into DFS gold? The upside in this situation is obvious – you’re essentially guaranteed 110 pitches from your starter. If he’s effective, that leaves him in a very good position to finish the deal, and 27 effectively-obtained outs is a boon to fantasy pitching staff. Of course, the downside is equally tangible – if he’s ineffective against his opponent, he may labor through 6, again throwing 110 pitches, which is likely to yield a sloppy line. Worst case scenario is that he completely implodes and can’t make it through 4, serving up double-digit runs and ruining your team. In a normal situation he may have gotten the hook before too much damage was done, but the bullpen is wiped out, so he just needs to get some outs, regardless of the scoreboard.

These situations tend to be very boom or bust with not much room in the middle, which makes them ideal for large-field GPP exploitation. That day in May, Dan Haren threw 7 effective innings, earning DailyJoust owners with 25 points…which is nearly half way home on a solo. That said, I probably would have avoided Haren against the mighty Yankees. The chance for implosion was very real against a potent offense that had previously had some success against the righty. Handicapping the pitcher placed in a situation where he is apt to be asked to throw a few more pitches than normal is critical.

Another Example

To prove this situation is more like Elvis in Vegas than the Sasquatch, here is anothere example:
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Chris Sale v. Kevin Millwood – June 3
Bullpen Depletion: Total. The previous day featured a 12-inning 10-8 keg-tapper where neither team’s starter saw the mound after the 5th. The two teams used a total of 14 relievers to end the game, leaving pretty much nobody in the pen for Saturday’s fixture. Millwood simply didn’t have it, struggling through 4, allowing 12 base runners and 4 earned runs. Actually, he pitched out of jams pretty well, but it was not a sharp effort. Sale didn’t get off to a great start, allowing 2 runs in the second, but then settled in and completed the game, throwing 119 pitches in the process. In a 4-2 game with a semi-rested bullpen, the Sox surely would have gone to a setup guy and closer Addison Reed with Sale approaching 100 pitches in the 8th, but because of the previous day’s event, Sale was given a chance to finish the game, earning a robust 31 points.

Today’s Case Study

Derek Holland @ Oakland
Scott Feldman was awful last night for Texas, failing to complete two innings, forcing the Rangers to turn to outfielder Craig Gentry to pitch the last inning. They actually only used 3 relievers, so maybe the bullpen isn’t in terrible shape, but Holland will have to work his way through 5, I’d suspect. Considering he was bombed for 8 runs in a short outing in Seattle his last turn, can you possibly trust him tonight in Oakland? He’s had success in the past, but he numbers were good in Seattle, too. Frankly, I don’t know the answer, but I suspect that Holland’s in line for 110 pitches. Your move, gamer.

And now, a lineup…

I’m not using Holland on Daily Joust tonight, but I am looking forward to tonight’s kickoff of SST 9. I’ll be playing 3 lineups, one of which looks a lot like this:

Pos Player Price Notes
SP Cliff Lee 265k This feels like a guaranteed 7 innings, 7 strikeouts and a W. That current Dodger lineup is sad.
1B David Ortiz 104k 6-12 lifetime v. Hammel.
2B Robinson Cano 109k Hitting over .400 against Shields in a meaningful sample size of 62 at-bats.
3B Miguel Cabrera 115k 7-20 against Ubaldo…and you may have heard that Jimenez struggles in Comerica.
SS Asdrubel Cabrera 76k Hitting .336 against lefties and Drew Smyly is nothing special.
OF Alex Gordon 55k I’m surprised to see him at 55k. 5-17 against Liriano and generally swinging the bat pretty well of late.
OF Jose Bautista 113k The power’s picking up. I feel a vintage Joey Bats run coming.
OF Matt Holliday 104k I know the Cards weren’t able to hit the Mets, but a visit to Lucas Harrell should be just what Holliday needs.
C Josh Thole 50k League minimum for a .280 hitting catcher. No power here, but unlikely to get blanked either.

If you’re new to Daily Fantasy, you could try a lineup similar to this out in the new $1 contest, the Page Thomas Daily MLB Tournament. It’s low-cost to join, and the winner also gets a seat in the “All Star Joust” where you will have a shot to win 2 tickets to the MLB All Star Game and $1,500 cash. Click any of the Joust links to join!. There’s also a 40% Deposit Bonus on your first deposit.

Like RotoTalk? Have an idea for a future edition? Leave a comment below or shoot me a private message through RotoGrinders.

About the Author

rotokevin
Kevin Dahle (rotokevin)

RotoKevin has been playing fantasy sports longer than he cares to admit. He compiled stats by hand from newspaper box scores for his first fantasy baseball league. He’s that old. He’s been profitably grinding daily fantasy since 2010, and finally secured a signature W by becoming a FanDuel 2014 DFBC Finalist. You can find him on nearly every site at some point during the year. He probably spends more time than you researching the tax implications of daily fantasy play and has been known to enjoy white wine on occasion.