"Sure Thing" - A Week 11 FanDuel Feature

Editor’s Note: For Week 11, JMToWin has released a one-time feature article geared towards FanDuel contests. Enjoy!

“Sure thing.” It’s a beautiful phrase to hear.

As in, “Bro, I’m moving this weekend. Can you help?”

“Sure thing.”

Or, “Hey, Mom, can you watch our eight kids for the week while we go on vacation without them?”

“Sure thing.”

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Or the classic (I’m sure we’ve all had this exact one before), “Want to go on a date next Thursday night…to see ‘Mike Tyson: Undisputed Truth’ live?”

“Sure thing.” (No, really, that was a conversation I had with Abby last night. Mike Tyson? Yes! Next Thursday night is going to be awesome.)

Of course, there are also times at which hearing “Sure thing” is not quite as pleasant. Oh, what’s that? You were expecting me to follow up that statement with a funny example of an instance in which “Sure thing” is not the response you want to hear? Yeah, you gave my cleverness more credit than it deserves. (The whole time I was showering this morning, in fact, I was trying to think up a clever example of an instance in which “Sure thing” would NOT be the response you would want to hear, but I came up with nothing. Perhaps you’re more clever than me. If you have any “instances in which ‘Sure thing’ is not what you would want to hear,” feel free to drop those off in the comments!)

But as much as we all love the idea of that phrase – “Sure thing” – we rarely look for “Sure things” when filling out our daily fantasy football rosters.

There is a pervasive thought in regards to constructing a GPP lineup that goes like this: “You need to fill out your roster with a handful of studs (a handful of ‘Sure things,’ that is), and then you need to fill out the rest of your roster with some low-priced lottery tickets in order to afford those studs. If the low-priced guys have a huge game, you’re in for a big week!”

Okay. True. But what about all the weeks in which those lottery tickets do not blow up? Or the weeks in which your lottery tickets do well, but the studs you paid up for all have poor games?

Apologists for this strategy will argue that all it takes is one big week to make up for all those losing weeks (all those weeks in which your “lottery tickets” were duds, or in which your studs did not pay off). And this is true. But I contend that there is a better way.

As many of you know, this is my first season playing DFS. What you may not have known, however, is that maybe 3% of my total play this year has been in cash games. The rest of my play has been in GPPs – and using this (admittedly stupid) approach (yeah, next year I am definitely expanding to include more cash game play!), I have made more money off DFS this year than I have made with my fiction and freelance writing (and while I won’t tell you how much I make with my writing, I will point out that I’m a good writer, so you can surmise that I do not lack for work opportunities). Is that a not-so-subtle brag? Okay, maybe it is. But it’s not there for the purpose of bragging; it is there, instead, because – as much as many of you seem to enjoy my writing on RotoGrinders – I am still not nearly as big of a “name” in the industry as many of the other guys out there. As such, I feel there is a belief among many readers that my advice must be taken with a grain of salt. “He’s a good writer, sure, but I’m not one hundred percent certain he really knows his stuff” – yeah, that sort of thing. So there you have it. The “not-so-subtle brag” is in place in order to reinforce: I am a non-mass-entry guy who plays mostly GPPs, and yet, I am able to consistently cash in tournaments, even when I do not have those “big, winning weeks.”

Why?

Because I always aim to fill my entire roster with “sure things”! In fact, in some ways, my GPP lineups very much resemble cash game lineups.

Now, the thought others have in regards to this strategy tends to go like this: “Okay, that sounds good in theory, but while you’re finishing in the money more often than guys with true GPP lineups, you’re limiting your chances of actually winning a GPP.”

My track record with this approach, however, has revealed to me that this is not the case at all. I would say that – on a per-roster basis – my “tournament wins and close calls at tournament wins” rival anyone with an approach built on “true GPP lineups.” And, again, these lineups I prefer to build – these lineups that are rife with “Sure things” – are far more likely to finish in the money than “true GPP lineups,” thereby providing me with an equal chance of winning tourneys, and a far greater chance of finishing in the money in tourneys! All in all, this leads to more money coming in, and more opportunities to see Mike Tyson in person.

In order to determine “sure things” (as always!), I am focused on talent, matchup, and opportunity (with “price” – as mentioned many times before in my RotoGrinders articles – being the fourth element I look at). As you will see below, there are a number of “sure thing” players this week who you can fit on your roster together! These are not “guys you can fit on your roster so you can pay up at other spots.” These are “guys you can fit on your roster together for a GPP lineup that has a shot at winning AND a shot at cashing in any tournament you enter”!

For each player below, we will assume we all understand they are talented. That marks “talent” off our list and leaves us looking at each player’s matchup and opportunity to understand exactly why they are a “sure thing” in my book!

Assuming you spend around $9500 between your defense and kicker on FanDuel, this leaves you with roughly $7200 remaining per player. As you will see below, the issue you should be likeliest to run into is, “Crap, I have all this extra salary left over and nowhere to use it,” rather than running into the issue of, “Crap, I’m about $10,000 over budget…let’s figure out where I can punt a few players.”

Note: Just because a player is a “sure thing” does not mean they are going to have a great game. Anyone can put up a dud on any given week. But by filling out a roster full of “sure things” – rather than paying up for “name value” and punting a few other spots as a result – you greatly increase the chances of all the players on your roster putting up big scores, and of your team soaring to the top of GPPs as a result!

Let’s get to it. Here are my “Sure things” for FanDuel in Week 11.


SURE THINGS at QB in Week 11

$8500 – PHILIP RIVERS

Matchup: According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Raiders have a bottom-10 pass coverage unit. While their pass rush grades out above average (and the Chargers’ O-line grades out below-average), the Chargers have been able to use scheme this year to mask pass blocking deficiencies against all but the toughest of pass rushing units. Also, Frank Reich is their O-coordinator, and I remember watching him lead that epic playoff comeback against Warren Moon and the Houston Oilers when I was a kid. Even as a Pats fan, my dad and I always loved Frank Reich. Which has nothing to do with anything. But I felt like mentioning it anyway.

Opportunity: This is the only concern with Rivers, as the Chargers could get up big and take the foot off the gas. Generally speaking, however, teams never take the foot off the gas until at least the 4th quarter (unless the QB has already thrown 5 TD passes – which you would not complain about anyway!), and in their meeting earlier this year, Rivers ripped apart this D for 313 yards and 3 TDs. In my opinion, Rivers is as close as you need to come to “paying up for QB” this week.

$7900 – ANDY DALTON

Andy Dalton

Matchup: The part about “talent” in regards to Andy Dalton may be a stretch, but he does have talent around him, which always helps a QB look more talented than he really is. As for matchup: the Saints have a bottom-5 coverage unit (PFF), and their pass rush – although not exactly poor – is nothing to be feared.

Opportunity: Drew Brees, in New Orleans. That means this game is likely to be a shootout. Dalton should be forced to drop back about 40 times, which will create plenty of opportunity for him to put up points.

$7400 – ROBERT GRIFFIN III

Matchup: While the Buccaneers have a decent pass rush unit, the Redskins have a decent pass blocking unit themselves, which somewhat neutralizes the threat of the pass rush seriously disrupting RGIII. This takes us to the Bucs’ secondary: the third-worst unit in the NFL according to PFF.

Opportunity: While the Bucs have the third-worst coverage unit in the NFL, the Redskins have the second-worst coverage unit (PFF). This means that the Bucs should be able to move the ball and put up points, which will leave RGIII needing to keep throwing and putting up points himself. Yup – that’s opportunity.

$7000 – JOSH MCCOWN

Matchup: I have a buddy named Gabe who is notorious for his “dad jokes.” When the Denzel Washington movie ‘Déjà Vu’ came out, Gabe spent about a week asking people, “Have you seen ‘Déjà Vu‘…have you seen ‘Déjà Vu’?” (Get it? He asked them twice, so it was like they were having déjà vu. Yeah. Dad jokes.) Telling that story was better than simply saying, “It feels like I’m having déjà vu.” As mentioned above, the Redskins have an awful secondary. And…

Opportunity: As mentioned above, the Bucs have an awful secondary. Both teams are likely to have to keep throwing in this game, and even though (déjà vu?) Josh McCown’s “talent” is questionable, the matchup, opportunity, and talent around him should be more than enough to make up for this.


SURE THINGS at RB in Week 11

$8000 – MARK INGRAM

Matchup: The Bengals have been atrocious against the run this year, grading out as a bottom-3 unit according to Pro Football Focus. Also, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics (which adjusts a defense’s performance for schedule), Cincinnati is 24th in the NFL against running backs. Any way you cut it, this defense has been poor against the run.

Opportunity: The Saints have been running Ingram into the ground over their last three games (an average of 27 carries per game over the last three – to go with one or two targets per game as well). They know they will soon have Thomas and Robinson back, and seem comfortable overusing Ingram for the time being as a result. Ingram is a strong bet to lead the entire NFL in carries yet again this weekend, and you can’t ask for much more than that against a bottom-3 run D.

$6500 – JEREMY HILL

Matchup: Football Outsiders DVOA metrics have the Saints at 27th in the NFL against running backs. There’s your matchup goodness right there.

Opportunity: With Gio Bernard likely to be out again, Hill will be the workhorse. After the Bengals strayed from the run in that ugly Thursday Night Football loss to the Browns (a game in which – for all the hand-wringing over Hill’s stats – the guy still averaged over 4.5 yards per carry!), I expect them to make sure to get him at least 20 touches this week in a tough, important road game.

Jerick McKinnon

$5500 – JERICK MCKINNON

Matchup: The Bears have not been awful against the run this year (19th vs RBs by Football Outsiders DVOA), but they are still a bit banged up, and they are susceptible to the big play. The big play, of course, is where McKinnon thrives.

Opportunity: If you can get a nearly-guaranteed 18 to 20 touches from a talented RB who costs only $5500, you take it, even if that guy does not get the goal line looks. McKinnon can score from anywhere on the field, and we will hope for that this week if he’s on our teams. But even if he does not score, he is a good bet for production with the opportunity he’ll receive.

$5300 – BISHOP SANKEY

Matchup: Advanced stats and metrics (all of which put the Steelers in the middle of the pack as a run defense) cannot reveal the impact that losing Shazier and Polamalu has on this D. This is a very solid matchup for Sankey.

Opportunity: He probably won’t top 20 touches, but he’ll get close to that mark. Again: if you can get a nearly-guaranteed 18 to 20 touches from a talented RB who costs only $5300, you take it, even if that guy does not get the goal line looks.


SURE THINGS at WR in Week 11

$7100 – BRANDON MARSHALL

Matchup: The Vikings have a middling coverage unit – one that is not a concern for a player as talented as Marshall (assuming, of course, that Marshall is healthy this week!).

Opportunity: Marshall has exactly 10 targets each of the last three games. Ten targets per game would put him fifth in the entire NFL in targets! If he can get 10 targets again in this one, he can feast – all for an extremely low price.

$6800 – RODDY WHITE

Matchup: The Panthers have the lowest-rated coverage unit in the NFL, and as they roll coverage and scheme as best they can to take away Julio Jones, Roddy should be left open plenty. (In fact, Roddy’s slight decline has perhaps been the best thing that has happened to his ability to get open, as defenses are dedicating less attention to him at last!)

Roddy White

Opportunity: While Roddy has had exactly 6 targets in half his games this year, he also has one game of 13 targets and one game of 15 targets. I do not expect him to quite reach that level of opportunity, but I see this being a game in which he’ll come closer to 8 or 9 targets than to 6 targets.

$6600 – KELVIN BENJAMIN

Matchup: On the other side of the ball from Roddy, we have a super talented Rookie facing the 4th-worst coverage unit in the NFL. Enough said.

Opportunity: Even though Kelvin thinks it’s fun to drop nearly 9% of his targets, Cam keeps going back to him. He has been targeted over 8 times per game on average, and he is third in the entire NFL in touchdown opportunities. It may not always be pretty, but the opportunity is always there.

$6500 – VINCENT JACKSON

Matchup: “Look, there’s a dead horse. Let’s beat it.” V-Jax faces the Redskins this week. The Redskins are awful against the pass.

Opportunity: Remember when I said that Brandon Marshall would be 5th in the entire NFL if he averaged 10 targets per game all season? Well, you know who actually does rank 5th in the entire NFL with an average of 10 targets per game over the entire season? That’s right, Vincent Jackson (how did you know?). V-Jax is also in the top 15 among all WRs in touchdown opportunities, and sooner or later, things are going to start breaking his way. I think that this week will mark the “sooner” part of that “sooner or later” statement.


SURE THINGS at TE in Week 11

$8100 – ROB GRONKOWSKI

Matchup: Football Outsiders DVOA has the Colts ranked 32nd against tight ends. Hint: there are 32 teams in the NFL. That’s not good.

Opportunity: 10, 9, 8, 9, 11. Those are Gronk’s targets over his last five games. Nothing more needs to be said than that!

$7900 – JIMMY GRAHAM

Matchup: The Bengals do not have as difficult a time covering tight ends as the Colts do, which is why I am slightly higher on Gronk this week than I am on Jimmy. That said, the Bengals are bad against tight ends also. And this is Jimmy Graham.

Jimmy Graham

Opportunity: You don’t need fancy numbers to know that Brees likes targeting Jimmy, but here are some fancy numbers anyway: In the games this year in which Jimmy has been healthy, Brees has targeted him an average of 10.6 times per game – leading to an average of one touchdown (and zero goal post dunks) per game as well.

$7000 – GREG OLSEN

Matchup: Although the Falcons have not given up a ton of fantasy points to tight ends, DVOA has them ranked 16th vs tight ends. That’s a low enough rank to justify using a guy as talented as Greg Olsen against them.

Opportunity: Olsen remains one of Cam’s favorite targets – and for once, Cam should actually have a bit of time to throw this week, which should lead to a few solid connections between these two.

$5900 – TRAVIS KELCE

Matchup: It’s hard to believe, but the Seahawks have had a very difficult time shutting down tight ends this year.

Opportunity: As of today, we’re not sure. If things remain as they have been all season, predicting “opportunity” here is a risky venture. But if Anthony Fasano is out or limited with his knee contusion (a fancy word for “bruise” – but what football player wants to say they’re at risk of missing a game because of a bruise?), Kelce will take on a much bigger role – receiving a lot of opportunity that has not yet been factored into his price!


That’s what I have for you this week. Now go forth, and win some GPPs with the “sure things” on your rosters!

In the meantime, I’ll be checking the comments and Twitter (JMToWin is the handle!) to see if any of you were able to come up with an instance in which “Sure thing” is decidedly NOT what you would want to hear…

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.