Week 12: In Which I’m Not The Best-Looking Guy

I’m not the best-looking guy you’ll ever meet. I have no problem admitting that. I mean, I’m not ugly – I work out, I take good care of myself, I have a solid beard, and I carry myself well – but I’m not the type of guy you would be concerned about your girlfriend falling in love with from afar. That’s just the truth.

In spite of this, however, I never had a particularly difficult time dating beautiful women when I was in the dating game, and my wife – in addition to being a freaking awesome woman – is quite the looker herself.

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There are a lot of things to which I can attribute this (part of it, of course, is due to the fact that – thankfully – women’s brains are generally geared to be more concerned with elements other than “looks”), but one of the main reasons I feel this was always the case was because I have always had a fair amount of confidence.

Yes. I know. We talked about confidence in this space before – back around Week 3 or 4 or 5. But it’s worth bringing up again, for a few reasons:

1) Back around Week 3 or 4 or 5, a smaller number of you were seeking out this article each week, so a recycled premise remains like-new to many of you.

2) Confidence is always worth bringing up, as I see it as a huge part of success in daily fantasy sports.

3) I could do with a bit of “listening to my own advice” at the moment – and I mean that in a number of ways…

Every week, I email a small group of friends with my thoughts on that week’s daily fantasy football slate. Generally, the information in that email ends up making its way into this article, but putting together that email is a great way for me to start organizing my thoughts on the week, and it gives me a chance to help my buddies get an early start on their week of preparation.

On Tuesday morning, I received a text from a buddy who is in that email thread. He thanked me for helping him win $500 off his $5 entry. He mentioned several pieces of advice that helped him take down such a big score, but the main thing he was grateful for was the fact that I mentioned in that email that I expected the Patriots to really try to pound the ball up the middle on the Colts – a perfect opportunity to use Jonas Gray for some high-upside salary relief in DFS.

My buddy listened to my advice and plugged Jonas Gray into his lineup.

I, on the other hand, did not listen to my advice.

Throughout the week, I was borderline-shocked to see how many people had Shane Vereen in their top 10 RBs on the week. And I don’t just mean random fantasy football rankers – I mean pretty much all of the top rankers, and pretty much all of the guys across the fantasy football landscape for whom I have a ton of respect.

I mentioned in my article last week that, after researching things out for myself, I still could not bring myself to be nearly as high on Vereen as all these other brilliant fantasy football minds. The more I looked at things, the more I felt it was going to be a game in which the Pats would lean on Jonas Gray.

And yet, I did not use Jonas Gray myself. Why? Well, a large part of it was simply because none of the most reliable fantasy football minds seemed to be on him at all. I thought, “I know I’m good, but these guys really, really know their stuff. I can’t bring myself to use Vereen, but I also know it would be dumb to go the complete opposite direction and put in Gray.”

Oops.

The funny thing (or…the not-so-funny thing if your name is JM Tohline and you watched that game on Sunday night with 94% of your brain thrilled that your team was destroying such a good opponent on the road…but with the other 6% of your brain wondering why on Earth you failed to use Jonas Gray in any of your three lineups) is that four weeks ago, “putting in Gray” is exactly what I would have done! Four weeks ago, when I was on an epic DFS tear (having cashed in the top 10% of GPPs with roughly 60% of my lineups through the first eight weeks of the season!), I would have basically said, “Hey, these guys know their stuff, but I know my stuff too. I’m putting in Gray.”

The other funny thing is: The beginning of this evaporation of confidence began in Week 9…when I recommended Edelman and Mike Evans (this was back when Evans cost $4700…oh, sweet nostalgia! – we probably won’t see Evans under $5k again for seven or eight years), and each scored over 30 points. In spite of recommending them fairly heavily, I had neither of them on any of my rosters.

This evaporation of confidence continued through Weeks 10 and 11 – weeks in which I finally started playing a higher volume of 50/50s…which is a good thing, because I did not cash in any GPPs in either of those weeks.

Bankroll-wise, the last three weeks have not been so bad, as I’ve had no real problem offsetting GPP losses with solid 50/50 play. But confidence-wise, the last three weeks have been rough. The golden era of this article series – Weeks 5 through 8, when I was consistently recommending guys who were under 5% owned and were scoring 30+ points – feels like another lifetime. But the craziest thing of all is this: Every week, the guys I am “leaving in the bucket,” so to speak – the guys, that is, to whom I am narrowing down my list, but whom I then leave off my teams and out of this article – are the guys who are going off, and are the guys about whom I am left saying that awful phrase, “Crap! – why didn’t I have that guy on my team!”

Over the last three weeks, in fact, I have received a total of six texts from six different friends, thanking me for helping them have their best week of the season. All of these have been friends who received my advice in the aforementioned email. And that email, of course, always contains my early-week thoughts – my thoughts before I start heavily reading the opinions and advice of others and changing my own opinions as a result. Each week, that email contains my most confident personal thoughts. Each week, that email contains the advice I should be listening to myself.

Any time I have used this space to talk about strategy, one of the things I have mentioned is that you should know the NFL so well (from reading RotoWorld, reading FantasyPros, reading reports from beat writers, and watching games) that you do not need to do a ton of week-specific research. You should know, simply looking at that week’s slate of games, what stands out to you and what situations you feel you should avoid. You should be able to look at the week and see a compact list of players about whom you feel supremely confident, all on your own.

Of course, when things are going well, it’s easy to do that. Frustratingly, my experience has revealed to me that DFS is a streaky enterprise at times – and I believe a large part of this is due to escalated confidence when things are going well, and crumbling confidence when things are going not-so-well (“going not-so-well” being a better label for how things have been going for me lately than to say things have been going “poorly,” as it’s still tough to complain about cashing with roughly 97% of 50/50 entries over the last three weeks – even if this has come with a grand total of zero GPP cashes).

This week, I am going to get my groove back (just like Stella). Maybe I will be right with my confidently-chosen picks. Maybe I will be wrong. I don’t know. But what I can tell you is that I am setting my lineups this week with absolute confidence!

As for the remainder of this week’s article: I will be changing up the format yet again. The week in which I discussed my belief that each of us should be making notes on every single fantasy-relevant player, in order to know exactly why we did and did not use certain players, and then proceeded to provide you with my personal notes on that week, a handful of you complained, saying that you preferred the more streamlined approach we normally take in this article. Far more of you, however, complained the next week when we did not take that approach – saying, basically, that it had been really beneficial to you to see the exact thought process behind the guys I did and did not like.

This week, I am going to be giving you something new that, once again, shows “thought process,” while (as always) revealing the guys I do and do not like. This is what I sent this week in that “email I should be listening to myself.” This is my game-by-game breakdown – detailing fully, game by game, how I see each contest playing out, and who I like and dislike as a result.

The time commitment for reading an article such as this is obviously going to be greater than your time commitment for a standard article. If you do not wish to sit there and truly get inside my mind for the next 20 or 30 minutes, please realize that I am not the only writer on this site; there are plenty of other, tremendous writers who provide great picks for the week. Feel free to leave this article right now and surf on over to those!

But if, on the other hand, you have a bit of time to spare and wish to explore each of this weekend’s games alongside me, go brew a cup (or perhaps a pot) of coffee, settle into your favorite squashy armchair, and come along for the ride.

Finally, realize that this is not a replacement for the weekly Grind Down from Ohnjz. That article takes a very different, and extremely valuable approach – analytically breaking down each game – and is very much worth your attention as we get closer to Sunday. This, instead, is simply my thoughts on how I see each game playing out, and is – as a result – a sort of map that shows you what is leading me to the guys I like this week, and what is leading me to the guys I will not be using.

Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro. Let’s get to this week’s supremely confident game-by-game breakdown!

Browns at Falcons

Either team could win this one, but I expect it to be close. Each team has a poor run D, and running the ball is the strength of the Browns, and is what their entire offensive strategy is centered around. I think they will pound the rock, but I also think they will take a few shots with JOSH GORDON. Kyle Shanahan always gets huge production from his “X” receiver (Pierre Garcon in Washington last year, and Andre Johnson in Houston), and I think he’ll try to get Gordon going right away. I know everyone will be on Gordon, but I think it’ll be like Calvin Johnson’s first game back from injury: even if Gordon doesn’t have a huge game, I expect them to make every effort to get him a TD and get him several looks to get him going. With Ben Tate being cut, ISAIAH CROWELL or TERRANCE WEST could be in for a very solid game. If you want, pay attention to Browns beat writer Tony Grossi’s Twitter account Sunday morning. Two weeks ago, he reported around an hour before games started that West was going to get all the carries that day. He did. And last week, around an hour before games started he reported the same thing about Crowell. The dude is plugged in and seems able to decipher this muddled RB situation. Crowell is $3800 and West is $3400, so they’re pretty much interchangeable. You could slot in Crowell if you decided to go here, and drop down to West if he’ll be the one getting the carries. I could also see a scenario in which each guy gets 15 carries. I probably won’t be going here as I don’t love uncertainty, but it’s a great spot for them.

Julio Jones

As for the Falcons – a lot of very smart people seem to be on them because they play better at home. But it hasn’t mattered where they have played this year – they’ve been bad outside of Week 1. The Browns have a very good secondary. Of course, Haden is a big part of that, and their #2 corner (sometimes Skrine, sometimes Gilbert) is very burnable. But as the Falcons really only have two truly solid weapons, I expect the Browns to take one away with Haden and roll coverage over to the other guy. A lot of the top rankers have RODDY WHITE right below JULIO JONES this week (presumably assuming Haden will be on Julio), but I could just as easily see the Browns sticking Haden on Roddy, as Haden has a little more trouble with super shifty WRs (not that Julio is an Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton, or Andrew Hawkins – but he’s closer to that type of player than other top WRs such as Dez or Megatron would be, for example). The Browns could then use scheme to take away Julio. This would be similar to what the Pats did last week with T.Y. Hilton – sticking Revis on Wayne quite a bit, and using scheme to take away Hilton. Also, the run game for the Falcons is unpredictable. I don’t want to go there. I’m not comfortable taking anyone from this side of the offense. Over/under on this game is a moderate 47. I could see it hitting the “under” pretty easily.

Titans at Eagles

The Eagles have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL, and the Titans grade out as a very poor pass blocking unit. I know the temptation may be there to use the Titans passing game because we keep hearing about how bad the Eagles outside corners are, but I don’t see ZACH METTENBERGER having tons of time to exploit these corners. Even if he does have time, who’s to say he and JUSTIN HUNTER can actually connect? Eagles also have a very good run defense, and as good as BISHOP SANKEY has continued to look (not in the box score, of course, but in real life), he’s not getting enough carries. I expect the Eagles to get up by a lot, and to keep running lots of plays as they always do. This will give Mettenberger lots of opportunities to play catch-up, and I expect this will lead to a number of mistakes on his part (sacks and picks). I like the Eagles D here. I like no one on the Titans.

The Eagles are near the top of the NFL in plays per game, and the Titans are near the bottom of the league in time of possession. This shapes up, then, for the Eagles to be able to run even more plays than normal. I was surprised on Monday night when the Steelers kept trying to attack the Titans through the air, as the Titans have a very good pass rush and an okay secondary, but they have a very bad run D. Finally, in the second half, the Steelers changed course and started pounding the ball, and we saw what happened. I am done loudly proclaiming that LESEAN MCCOY is a great value and a must-play…but he does appear to be a great value and a must-play this week. I think the Titans will try to take away the middle of the field where MARK SANCHEZ likes to throw (which would limit JORDAN MATTHEWS upside), and I think the Eagles will give LeSean the same number of carries (22 to 24) he’s been getting almost every single week. I would not be surprised if he turns that into 100+ yards and a TD. Eagles have one of the highest-projected scores of the week from Vegas (they’re 12-point favorites with an over/under of 48 – which puts them at around 30 points), and I think many of those points could come from LeSean. JEREMY MACLIN is also in play, of course, but he is quite expensive and there are probably better values elsewhere.

Lions at Patriots

The Patriots D is good, and the Lions are regularly dysfunctional. I assume the approach on D will be to take away CALVIN JOHNSON with Revis and to scheme GOLDEN TATE out of the game, but the Pats could just as easily put Revis on Tate and use Browner to wreck Megatron at the line of scrimmage with safety help over top. Either way, I don’t want to mess with the Lions pass game. A week ago, I would have liked JOIQUE BELL in this game. And Joique did do well against a tremendous run D in Arizona. But…well, yeah. The Colts are generally bad at running the ball (even if 4 rushing yards on 14 carries on Sunday night is far beyond just “generally bad”!), so I guess I could still see Joique having a good game. I do, however, think the Pats take a lead and the Lions are forced to limit the run. Yeah. I could see Joique having a good game. But I don’t want to bet on it, as it could just as easily go the other way. If anything, I would expect the Lions to have to lean on REGGIE BUSH / THEO RIDDICK (not sure if Bush will be playing), but I wouldn’t want to put money on a guess there, either.

Tom Brady

The Lions, on the other hand, have a tremendous run D and a great pass rush, but their secondary is only so-so. Given the ability TOM BRADY has to avoid pressure as well as any QB in the league, I’m not concerned here. I also feel McDaniels will insert a lot of quick passes to keep the Lions’ D off balance, and will balance this with some runs (even if the Pats get stuffed) that will open up play-action for a few deep shots (BRIAN TYMS could be the guy here, or BRANDON LAFELL, but I really don’t want to guess there!). I do like this to be a game in which the Pats use SHANE VEREEN a lot (the Pats always attack an opponent’s weakness, rather than trying to beat their strength), and I would not touch JONAS GRAY with even a free entry this week. I like ROB GRONKOWSKI (although there are cheaper TEs I like a lot as well, so I won’t be paying up for Gronk), and I love Brady. I think Brady will be low-owned and will have a big game – particularly because the Pats will continue passing into the 4th quarter even if they have a lead, as this will be their preferred method of “running out the clock” against this run D. Brady is alongside Luck as my two favorite QBs of the week.

Packers at Vikings

Packers are a huge favorite in this game, and they could put up a lot of points very quickly – just as they have done in many recent weeks – which could limit the upside AARON RODGERS has. Rodgers is certainly as safe a play as there is, but the only guy potentially safer than Rodgers is Luck, as Luck has topped 300 yards in 9 of 10 games so far, and Luck continues passing into the 4th quarter even in blowouts, as the Colts have no running game. I like the Packers to score 30+ points. I like JORDY NELSON and RANDALL COBB to have big games. I like EDDIE LACY to get his normal 14 carries with a few targets (certainly not paying up for that, as his usage has been much lower than anyone else in his price range), and I like us to not know for sure where the TDs will come from. Given the tighter pricing on DK this week, I will not be paying up for Rodgers and one of his WRs, but I would not blame you if you did (assuming you can find values you like elsewhere). I have no doubt the Packers will score points. I just cannot confidently predict where those points will come from, and I don’t want to tie up that much of my budget in two or three players.

Not much to use on the Vikes. TEDDY BRIDGEWATER is bad, and the Packers’ secondary is good. Hopefully CHARLES JOHNSON will have a bad game so we can all jump on him next week against the Panthers at a cheap price and minuscule ownership. The Vikes have shown an inability to get JERICK MCKINNON going in spite of his immense talent, and I don’t expect there to be enough goodness from their side to make any of their players truly reliable (and no, I’m not on BEN TATE either – thanks for asking). They’ll score some points (probably 14 or 20), but I don’t want to try to guess where they’ll come from. There are much better plays out there.

Jaguars at Colts

With Allen Robinson out, ALLEN HURNS is stepping into an every-down role. There has been a lot of talk about his inconsistency this year…but in the six games this year in which Hurns has played at least 85% of the snaps, he has 4 games with double-digit fantasy points. That would be good enough at a price of $3200, but also worth noting is the fact that 2 of those 4 games have gone for 30-plus points. If you’re taking a shot on a lottery ticket in the “someone got injured and this guy is getting more opportunity as a result” vein, I’d much rather take the guy who has a pair of 30-point games this year (Hurns) over the guy who has topped 6 targets in a game only once in his career (Stills). Hurns could just as easily end up with 6 or 8 points, but he’ll only match up with Vontae Davis about 30% or 40% of the time (Hurns plays about half his snaps in the slot, which should remain the case even with Robinson out, as I imagine Hurns will be outside in 2-wide sets and in the slot in 3-wide sets, and the Jags move their WRs around a lot, while Vontae plays on the same side of the field on 97% of snaps), so I like him to have a lot of upside – especially in a game in which the Jags should be trailing by quite a bit. I love me some DENARD ROBINSON, and we all know by now that the Colts are susceptible on the ground. But Robinson is not very involved in the passing game with his hands of stone, and the Jags should be down early. Robinson could be a lottery ticket that pays off big if the Jags can somehow keep the game close, but I think he’ll be limited to 16 to 18 touches, so I won’t be going there. BLAKE BORTLES is a sneaky option as well, but there are other low-priced guys who have the same upside and are a whole lot safer.

Trent Richardson

The Colts are obviously a top offense, and Vegas has them projected at around 32 points (the highest total on the week). ANDREW LUCK will throw for 300 yards – that’s pretty much a given – which is an extra 3 points on DK. If you’re looking for 4x salary, those extra 3 points are basically worth around $700 of budget right away. Luck won’t quadruple his high salary (he would need nearly 38 points to do so), but I don’t think 34 or 35 points is outside the realm of possibility, and his floor is 25 points (he’s been under 25 points only twice all season – one game with 19, and another with 23; to put that in context, Drew Brees has been over 25 points only twice all season). Luck is the highest-scoring fantasy QB and is facing a poor secondary, on a team that doesn’t run the ball. Speaking of running the ball: Do you know how many 100-yard games TRENT RICHARDSON has in his entire career? Try zero. That’s right. Zero. He was a 25- to 30-carry back in Cleveland (and they did not have an awful O-line), and he never topped 100 yards. A lot of rankers are pushing T-Rich into the top-10 or top-12 backs this week. No thanks. There are a lot of RBs I trust a whole lot more than T-Rich. I do, however, like T.Y. HILTON a lot this week. After back-to-back 3-catch games, everyone is forgetting that Hilton has a 40-point game on his resume this season (to go with a 30-point game and a pair of 20-point games). I think the Colts will make a concerted effort to get him going in this one. I like this entire passing attack, but Luck/Hilton is by far one of my favorite combos on the day.

Bengals at Texans

No telling what the Bengals will do with their backfield in this one, as all signs point to GIO BERNARD coming back. I imagine this will be a 50/50 split this week (or something very close to that), which makes it hands-off for me. This game has a very low over/under (43.5 points), and the Texans are favored by 2, making this shape up as something like a 21-23 game. Obviously, anything can happen in any given game, but that seems about right to me. Houston’s secondary is perfectly average (not good, but not bad either), and they have a great pass rush (obviously). I think this game will be a dog-fight – and as high of a ceiling as A.J. GREEN has, his floor is lower than normal in a game like this. All the rankers are suddenly much higher on him this week than they were last week, but he’s still only getting around 7 or 8 targets per game. He’s an elite talent, but in a game like this, I won’t go there.

It’s no secret to anyone: the Texans will try to pound the rock in this one. ARIAN FOSTER could be in for 25 carries, with ALFRED BLUE mixed in for 7 or 8 “breather” carries. In spite of the Bengals stopping Ingram last week, they have been a bottom-barrel run D. I think Foster will have a big game – although, with the tight pricing, I’m not seeing enough great values to justify paying up for Foster (unless you want to take a risk at QB – a Flacco, Kaepernick type of play – but I’d rather take the sure thing at QB than take the sure thing at RB). If you choose to pay up for Foster, however, you should expect a very good game (assuming he stays healthy). I want no part of DEANDRE HOPKINS or ANDRE JOHNSON, even at their suppressed prices, against this secondary. This game will probably not be pretty, and it will probably be close, and it will probably be fairly low-scoring.

Jets at Bills

Editor’s Note: The Bills/Jets game has been moved to Monday and will be played in Detroit.

Percy Harvin

This is a tempting game, with two particular players, in spite of the fact that it has the lowest over/under of the week…and the sharps in Vegas have pushed the over/under down further! (As in: the majority of the public has bet the “over“…and yet, the over/under has gone down instead of going up, as more than 50% of the money was on the “under” side, meaning that the bets on the “under” were from big-money bettors who know what they are doing to a much greater extent than the public knows what they are doing!) Yes, this game should be low-scoring. However, the Jets have used PERCY HARVIN as a big part of their “running game” his three weeks with the team. The two weeks the Jets were losing, this meant a few carries and a lot of short passes that would give him a chance to do something with the ball in open space (a ridiculous 22 targets his first two games with the team!). When they were leading against the Steelers, they gave him 6 actual carries to keep the ball in his hands, but they only targeted him 4 times, as they pretty much stopped passing altogether to preserve the lead. In PPR, Percy could easily get 7 or 8 cheap catches, and given his talent, there is no telling what he could do with those touches. At only $4700, he’s one of the best values on the entire board this week. Justin Boone (one of the most consistently top-notch rankers) has Percy as his #11 PPR WR this week – ahead of T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, Odell Beckham, and Andre Johnson, just to name a few of the vast number of guys more expensive than him. I like Percy a lot this week at the price.

I also like SAMMY WATKINS at only $5600. He’s the focal point of this offense, and even though the offense itself is unpredictable, I like his chances of having a big game. He only had 5 targets last time against the Jets (thankfully, he turned this into 157 yards and a TD!), and he hasn’t topped 4 catches since Week 7, but the targets have been there, and the last two contests were against very good pass Ds (Miami and KC). I think the targets will be there again in this one, and I think he’ll be able to do something with those targets! In spite of the likely low-scoring nature of this game, I like Watkins and Percy quite a bit.

Buccaneers at Bears

This is an interesting one. Lovie Smith and JOSH MCCOWN each travel back to Chicago. The one problem is, Josh McCown isn’t very good…and I honestly don’t know that Lovie Smith is all that good, either. The over/under in this game started at a moderate 48.5, and the sharps have pushed it down so far to 46. That’s a bit surprising to me, as we all know each team has a poor D, but then, this game could play out any number of ways. I’m not touching McCown in this game (too much risk for my taste), and there is no telling how the Bucs’ backfield will be employed (CHARLES SIMS should be the lead dog, but how big a share of the carries will he actually be given?). Obviously, the big guys to look at here are the WRs…or, in the minds of most, the big “guy” – singular – is MIKE EVANS. For me? Price is too high. DFS is all about finding value, and even though Evans is obviously a tremendous WR (and even though there are no embarrassingly obvious values this week, unlike last week with Brandon Marshall at $5800, Alshon Jeffery at $5900, and A.J. Green at $6000), I’d rather allocate my money in a more frugal manner. Furthermore, all the talk right now is that VINCENT JACKSON is obviously “no longer the focal point of this offense.” That may be true, but this is still a Roddy/Julio, Golden/Calvin, Alshon/Marshall situation, where both WRs are talented and will get targets. V-Jax has reached double-digit targets in 6 of the last 8 games. That’s incredible opportunity! I don’t think one game with 4 targets is a clear indication that he is phased out of this offense. If I enter 4 or 5 unique lineups this week, V-Jax will probably be on one or two, given how bad the Bears D is and how talented V-Jax still is. He won’t make my Optimal Team, I’m sure, but I still love his availability at this price. Finally, if Lovie is smart (again, I’m not 100% certain he is), AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS will be a big part of the game plan here. The Bears are so bad vs tight ends that the Packers straight up played their entire game vs the Bears in “12” personnel (two tight ends), even though their tight ends are usually not featured at all! The Bears are this year’s Arizona Cardinals vs TEs, and it’s not being talked about enough. This is good for us. It’s also good for us that ASJ is not only minimum-priced, but is at the very bottom of all the TEs listed, so unless someone is specifically looking for him, they’ll never come across him. This should lead to very, very low ownership this week. I like ASJ a lot this week.

Alshon Jeffery

On the other side of the ball, we have a top-4 TE for only $4k in MARTELLUS BENNETT. Obviously, his production has dropped off, but other than last week, he’s still been in the 6- to 8-target range. I may very well use Bennett and ASJ on the same lineup and have tons of money available to spend elsewhere. Bennett has 20+ points in 4 of his 10 games this year. At a price tag of $4k? That’s incredible value. If I didn’t love ASJ so much this week, Bennett would be by far the most obvious TE choice. Outside of Bennett, of course, we also have BRANDON MARSHALL, ALSHON JEFFERY, MATT FORTE, and JAY CUTLER. Once again, it’s worth noting that this game has a surprisingly low over/under given how bad these defenses are, but the Bears are projected at a respectable 26 points. Cutler is cheap and should be highly-owned. Marshall and Alshon are, honestly, about the cheapest top-10 WRs this week as well. Forte is tremendously expensive and will not pay off 4x value, but he could easily put up 30 points vs this defense (heck, he’s scored 30+ on three occasions this year already), which would nearly be worth the price, given the fact that his ownership will be low with people choosing not to pay up for him. I currently do not have any piece of this offense on the Optimal Team I am toying with, but that scares me to a huge degree. There are a lot of pieces in this offense that could have a big game.

Cardinals at Seahawks

What really needs to be said here? This should be a low-scoring game. The Cardinals do not score much, but they also don’t make many mistakes. I do not expect their passing attack to get much going vs the Legion of Boom. And even though ANDRE ELLINGTON has a similar skill set to Jamaal (and Mebane being out certainly hurts the Seahawks run D), Ellington can barely crack 3.5 yards per carry, and while part of that is surely due to his ongoing foot ailment and part of it is due to poor run blocking, it’s still a fact that needs to be taken into account. Even with his pass game usage and his low price tag, I cannot bring myself to use him this week. As for WRs and Drew Stanton, they’re an obvious fade for me vs the Seahawks, especially in Seattle.

I won’t be using the Seahawks D, as the Cards really don’t make enough mistakes – even with Stanton at QB. I don’t like MARSHAWN LYNCH, as good as he has been lately, as this run defense is not something I want to mess with (if I owned him in season-long, sure, I’d start him, but there are too many other options in DFS to use a guy because he is “matchup-proof,” when the matchup is this tough). And I don’t like any WRs on Seattle, vs a secondary that has very much turned the corner in recent weeks (Cromartie has been one of the top CBs in the league for several weeks now, and Patrick Peterson is finally playing much closer to his reputation than to the bottom of the NFL cornerback pack). RUSSELL WILSON could have a decent game on the ground, but I’m not going to go near this offense at all myself.

Rams at Chargers

If the Rams could be guaranteed to have a lead again, I’d be on board with using TRE MASON (as in: if I could bank on 25 carries, I would absolutely use him at $4200!), but he could easily have just 14 to 16 carries also. This is probably going to be a low-scoring game, with the Rams playing it close but coming out on the short end of the straw. I don’t like KENNY BRITT, as I don’t like trusting poor QBs and especially don’t like combining poor QBs with mercurial WRs, so count me out for a seat on the Britt bandwagon. Basically, I don’t hate the Rams offense, but I certainly do not see anything I like, either.

Ryan Mathews

Maybe PHILIP RIVERS isn’t hurt, but he sure didn’t look like himself against the Raiders. I hate to let recency bias wreck my shot at getting a top-6 QB at a bottom-barrel price, but the Chargers looked bad last week against a weak team, and the Rams have looked very good for several weeks (even before their thrashing of the Broncos). Last week, the sharps in Vegas bet down the Rams-Broncos line even though the public was heavily on the Broncos, and this week it appears both the sharps and the public are betting down the line together, taking the Rams against the quickly-shrinking spread. I certainly don’t like RYAN MATHEWS at only 15 carries (nothing against Mathews, who has looked solid this year – I just don’t like any RB who is barely involved in the pass game at only 15 carries), and at this point – as someone who enters only 1 to 5 unique lineups – I’d rather miss the boat on Rivers than sink with him again. Also of note, in case you were wondering: The Rams are tremendous at defending tight ends. Something to think about if you are gravitating toward ANTONIO GATES.

Dolphins at Broncos

I am playing no one from this game. No one. The Broncos have a top run D and two of the top corners. That makes the Dolphins and their unpredictable offense an easy fade on the road. That’s all that needs to be said there.

As for the Broncos? Look, the Broncos have an awesome offense. But the Dolphins’ overall defense has a total rating on Pro Football Focus (combining run D, pass rush, and pass coverage) of 101.6. The next highest defense in the entire NFL? The 49ers at 75.8. Yeah. The Dolphins have the #7-rated run D, the #1-rated pass rush, and the #3-rated coverage unit. Could the Broncos put up a lot of points? Of course they could. But so could the Packers, Bears, Patriots, Colts, and Eagles – and all those teams have a much lower likelihood of having a poor game. I’ll fade the Broncos (just as I did last week vs an underrated Rams D) and hope these guys have high-ownership…then I’ll cross my fingers and pray the Broncos have a mediocre game again. No need to match up a top offense against a top defense when there are so many other options for top offenses playing poor defenses (says the Patriots fan who is going to be using Brady and Vereen against the Lions’ elite unit…).

Redskins at 49ers

Another offense I do not want to touch. This offense has been a mess almost all season, and the only player who seems to consistently look good is ALFRED MORRIS – who will have nowhere to run in this one, facing off against the 49ers. The 49ers have an excellent secondary and an excellent run D. They have not been getting as many sacks or forcing as many mistakes as I would like to see in order to pick them as my DST (although they are at home against a mistake-prone offense, which is obviously a bonus), but they have certainly been good enough that I do not want to use a poor offense against them.

There are a lot of ways you could go here with the 49ers offense. You could fade them, of course. You could go with COLIN KAEPERNICK and assume he will be able to torch this Washington secondary as so many other QBs have done this year. Or you could go with FRANK GORE, assuming the 49ers will continue their commitment to the run. If Gore could top 100 yards (gaining that 3-point bonus for 100 yards) and score a TD, he would basically quadruple value at only $4900. With the 49ers having the 3rd highest-rated run blocking unit and the Redskins having the third lowest-rated run defense, this is definitely in the realm of possibility. If Gore gets 20 carries, I see him as one of the safest plays of the day, and as a great way to raise the floor of a team. If, however, the 49ers get up by a lot early, they could give Hyde extra carries to keep Gore fresh for the playoffs. That’s the one big concern in this one. In all, however, I’d say I would rather lean on Gore than on Kaep, as Kaep has just shown so little for so much of this season, and as the 49ers truly are a run-first offense.

Cowboys at Giants

The Giants, of course, have had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL ever since losing Jon Beason, and the Cowboys are surely going to look to pound the rock with DEMARCO MURRAY. At the same time, with Amukamara out, we could see DEZ BRYANT heavily involved as well. Given the price tags of these two, I’m not sure I want to try to spend up for one, but I certainly see big games coming from one or both of these dudes. TONY ROMO is also appealing at his price, but of course, the Cowboys could be in a position where they are not having to pass nearly as much. One point worth noting: It has gone largely unremarked-upon, but the Cowboys have severely limited DeMarco’s carries lately. He’s had exactly 19 carries in three consecutive games, compared to the 25-30 he was getting early in the season (of course, he has averaged just over 5 catches per game during that span – bringing his total touches to a still-elite 24+ per game, but that’s nevertheless far below the 30(!) touches per game he averaged through the first seven weeks of the season). With the Cowboys shaping up as heavy contenders for a playoff spot, they are clearly trying to be smart with their workhorse. As we saw with the Steelers on Monday night, this plan can go out of the window if the run is working and the game is close, but if the Cowboys get an early lead, DeMarco could again find himself at or under 20 carries. I like this offense plenty this week, but I do not want to pay up for either of the two guys who are truly most appealing (and I don’t like anyone else enough to use them over other guys available in their respective price ranges).

Rueben Randle

The offense on the other side of the ball provides a lot to pick through. ELI MANNING is an obvious fade in my mind, as the Cowboys D – for all the talk about how awful they were supposedly going to be – has been very solid in most areas, and I don’t want to trust Eli when he could return a sub-10-point game. I’d much rather pay an extra $1k or $2k for a sure thing at QB and pick up one of the great values at other positions to make up the difference. That said, there are other intriguing pieces on this offense. LARRY DONNELL is out for me, as he is only $100 less than Martellus, who has a far higher ceiling (and a higher floor, for that matter) – although, if not for the price being so close between the two, I would like Donnell plenty this week. I also like ODELL BECKHAM JR. and RUEBEN RANDLE a fair amount. Beckham is obviously a superior talent, but Randle is still leading the team in targets each and every week. That’s tough to ignore. If the discount from Beckham to Randle were greater than $1k, Randle would be the very obvious choice; with the price difference between the two being not too terribly massive, however, I’d be fine paying up for the talent of Beckham if I had the space in my budget. He’s not my favorite play of the week by any means, especially given the fact that the Cowboys could hold the ball for much of the game. But he’s a solid floor with a ton of upside. At the same price as Randle, we also have RASHAD JENNINGS, who is widely ranked – especially be the most accurate rankers – as a top-10 RB this week (Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus – who has been the most accurate running back ranker in the country two years in a row – has Jennings as the #5 PPR back this week). He’s extremely, extremely cheap for how highly he is ranked, and he may even go somewhat unnoticed, as he didn’t do much last week vs SF and was out for a while before that (at the very least, he won’t be the first guy who will come to mind for most people). I don’t love him, as he is probably only going to get around 15 carries, but he is very involved in the pass game, he should be the one getting the ball near the goal line, and a lot of smart people love him this week. I have no reason not to love him. This is probably a week in which it is far likelier to hurt you if you fade him than it is to hurt you if you use him. Just some rambling thoughts on a running back I don’t love this week for some reason, but that there is every reason to love. A low-priced, top-10 RB with potentially low ownership to boot? That’s tough to pass up.

Ravens at Saints

A lot of people who are far smarter than me when it comes to ranking/predicting QBs have JOE FLACCO ranked as somewhere around the #15 QB this week. I find that hard to believe, as the Saints have a poor secondary and should put up points, thereby forcing the Ravens to throw to keep up. But then again, it’s not like Flacco has shown a ton this year outside of one game vs TB, and JUSTIN FORSETT has also been very good, and New Orleans is susceptible on the ground (which also helps an offense keep the ball away from Brees). I liked Forsett this week before pricing came out, but at $6500, there are simply too many other RBs I like more, for less money. But I could see the Ravens only throwing for about 200 yards, and piling up another 150 to 170 on the ground between Forsett and LORENZO TALIAFERRO. I don’t know. On the other hand, I could see Flacco going for 300 yards and 3 TDs, with STEVE SMITH SR. and/or TORREY SMITH having a big game. OWEN DANIELS could be involved as well, although the Saints do a good job defending TEs. This game is tough to get a read on. I’ll probably fade this offense, as I’ll only be building somewhere between one and five lineups, and there are too many other guys I feel more confident in. But I certainly do not hate this offense this week, and I would not blame anyone for using guys from the Ravens in this one.

Marques Colston

As for the Saints – MARK INGRAM is hands-off against this top-5 run defense (PFF). Another concern – as beat-up as the Ravens secondary is – is that the Ravens also have the #2 pass rush unit in the NFL, and the Saints grade out at negative 23.6 as a pass blocking unit on the season (nearly halfway to the worst unit in the NFL – the Panthers at negative 53.6). This could lead to another disappointing output from DREW BREES. Furthermore, for all the love JIMMY GRAHAM is getting with Cooks out, the Ravens are awesome against TEs. I know it’s Jimmy, but why risk it with him when the Bucs are awful against TEs and Martellus is only $4k? I like KENNY STILLS and/or MARQUES COLSTON just fine with Cooks now out for the year, but I think trying to predict the Saints’ WR usage is like trying to predict the Patriots’ RB usage – just because something seems obvious does not mean it is. Will Stills really get 8 or 9 targets with Cooks out? Maybe. But as I said above, I think Hurns’ opportunity will be much more predictable, and I think his upside is similar to Stills, at a price tag of $1000 less than Stills. I don’t know. It’s scary to fade what could be a high-scoring Monday night game, because then you’re stuck sitting there as people are catching up from behind in tourneys, but I don’t see anything on this offense I love enough to use if I’m just putting in a few lineups. If I do put in five lineups, I could pick up a little bit of exposure to the Saints, and I’d definitely roll with some Saints if I had, say, 10 lineups. But if I’m at one, two, or three lineups, I would strongly bet there will be no Saints on those teams.


Now, it’s your turn. Sure, I know a lot – but so do you! What do you think I got wrong in this article? Which players are you looking at that I am fading (and why?). Be confident in your picks! Let me (and everyone else) know in the comments your confident thoughts on the week.

(Note: The comments on this article usually exceed the 25 comments that fit on one page. In order to see all comments – including any response(s) I may leave you – you may need to go down to the bottom of the comments and press the “next” button. Many of you may not have realized that. In order to see everyone’s “confident thoughts,” and in order to see any responses I happen to have, scrolling back through the comments will probably end up being your go-to move!)

(Note 2: Also, if you’re not doing so already, be sure to give me a follow on Twitter (JMToWin is the handle!), as I’ve been using Twitter lately to share late-week thoughts and answer questions.)

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to stare in the mirror and do my “confidence drills” so I can still feel good about my picks after you guys tell me about all the players I should like more than I do this week. (Just kidding. I don’t really have “confidence drills.” I promise…)

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.