Daily Fantasy Soccer DFS Strategy: Using Vegas Odds
As soccer’s popularity rises in the United States, it’s going to be interesting to see if the sport’s daily fantasy market can follow suit. The fantasy soccer model has long been proven elsewhere in the world, so there’s reason for optimism when it comes to the daily version.
That said, while fun, it can also be somewhat intimidating to dive into a new DFS sport as a player. Let’s try to help ease your transition into the wonderful world of daily fantasy soccer by going over an introductory strategy element to consider during lineup construction.
Glancing over the Vegas odds
As you get set to make daily fantasy soccer lineups, you may want to check out the odds for each match on the slate. That will give you a general overview of which teams and, more importantly, which players will be in the best positions to rack up fantasy points.
If you see Manchester City listed at -750 on the moneyline to win against weak opposition, you have to figure they’re going to be heavily targeted throughout the DFS community. And for good reason, as the odds suggest it’ll be a one-way affair and that City’s players will assert their control throughout.
Then what?
Confidence plays a massive role in a player’s performances, and there’s no better way to build up that confidence than by playing well and helping your team to wins. As a result, to start your research process, perhaps consider the perspective of the teams first and then move to the individuals.
From a team perspective
Why team first? Well, you mostly want to pick players on teams that have been playing well and are in favorable situations. As mentioned above, Vegas odds are telling and can help you pinpoint which teams are expected to fare best on that day.
In general, the bigger the favorite, the more that team will have possession of the ball. Time of possession may very well be a basic stat, but it’s a quick and easy way to tell who is bossing a match.
Say you see that Liverpool is at home to Southampton. You know the Reds are going to be controlling things and that the odds will be heavily in their favor. That means the likes of Mohamed Solah and Sadio Mane, among others, are going to generate scoring chances and therefore accrue fantasy points.
From a player perspective
Taking what we’ve learned from the odds and thus the teams likeliest to score goals, we can begin to narrow down our player pool further.
There are exceptions, like for special talents (think Messi or Ronaldo) who will generate substantial fantasy production no matter what. They are “matchup-proof”, ala LeBron James in basketball or Justin Verlander in baseball. Generally speaking though, we want to target players (on heavily favored teams) who will get a lot of touches, particularly in the attacking third.
In sum, knowing likely match flows and outcomes can go a long way in your pursuit of crafting winning daily fantasy soccer lineups. Approaching from a different angle, if you think an underdog team has a good chance of performing well, you can try to locate undervalued (in your estimation) options who others may not be considering. If they come through, you’ll be sitting pretty.
Huh? You want me to actually watch the games?
Well, yes, of course. We’re lucky to have the amazing TV coverage we do in the US (kudos to NBC in particular), and the Premier League is an enthralling league to follow.
The more you watch, the more familiar you’ll get with the skill sets of the players. Numbers can be deceiving sometimes, so actually watching matches to get a feel for the players and how aspects of the sport relate to DFS production can’t exactly hurt, can it?
Any other DFS soccer topics that you’d like to see discussed? Comment below!
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