Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty and Bet Deshaun Watson to Win NFL MVP
Jake Tribbey breaks down NFL MVP odds at online sportsbooks, the precarious off-season situation in Houston, and why there’s betting value on quarterback Deshaun Watson to win the coveted award in 2021.
One of the NFL’s top QBs is fed up with his organization’s consistent mismanagement of their top resources, and as a result, has requested to be traded. The Houston Texans are now in one of the most precarious offseason positions in NFL history. Coming off an abysmal 4–12 season that saw the tenures of both their head coach and GM end, the last thing Houston can afford is their $40-million a year QB to sit out the 2021 season. Their options are severely limited.
Deshaun Watson, on the other hand, is in the most powerful position in football. He’s committed to never playing for Houston again, and nearly every team that can will attempt to sway Watson away from the Texans. Watson’s 2020 numbers look like borderline MVP statistics, despite the fact he played with the worst receiving core of his entire career. In fact, outside of the complete worst-case scenario of a season-long holdout, Watson’s MVP chances skyrocket by having any other name on his jersey besides Houston.
In order to determine Watson’s chances of winning the 2021 MVP, we will need to cover the value of Deshaun Watson as a QB, his potential destinations, and how the MVP race typically shakes out. Time to get comfortable.
The Value of Deshaun Watson
Who is the best QB in the NFL? Most people would likely mention familiar names like reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers or recent Super Bowl champions Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
But what if the best QB in 2020 actually played for a 4–12 team, and had his best season ever at the age of 25?
Let’s start with the obvious: Houston had absolutely nothing going for it in 2020, except Watson.
PFF’s Seth Galina lays out the case for Watson being 2020’s top QB perfectly, saying, “Absolutely nothing went the Texans’ way last year, and Watson still routinely played at an elite level. Former Houston head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien traded his team’s best receiver, yet Watson played better than ever before. O’Brien was fired midseason, but it didn’t phase the quarterback. He played with a terrible defense, a terrible running game and no star receivers and put up the 19th-best regular-season passing grade of the PFF era (91.2). He’s one of 29 quarterbacks to finish a regular season with a 90.0-plus passing grade.
“Those 29 quarterback seasons are generally regarded as the greatest individual campaigns of the past 15 years. Tom Brady 2007, Peyton Manning’s 2013 and Patrick Mahomes 2018 are all included in this group alongside Watson’s 2020.
“Better surrounding factors allow a quarterback to stay away from negative plays. Being down in games forces the quarterback to attempt more difficult passes. Not having a running game puts the quarterback in more ominous down and distances. Not having receivers who can separate forces the quarterback to hold on to the ball.”
And yet Watson managed the best season and biggest step forward of his career.
Not only that, but Houston sat near the bottom of the NFL in the crucial areas that are designed to make a QB’s life easier: ranking 28th in 2020 play-action rate and 21st in screen rate.
The best part, Watson managed to eliminate his worst games in 2020 despite the complete lack of help around him. PFF’s Seth Galina expands on that, saying, “Over the first three years of his career, Watson had 12 games where his passing grade dipped under 60.0. He had no such games in 2020. And getting his turnover-worthy play percentage down to 2% from 3.6% in 2019 was part of that.”
All with the worst receiving core of his entire career and a coaching staff that simply wasn’t giving him enough help.
It’s easy to see why Deshaun Watson is due for a special 2021 if he can land with a functional franchise.
Let’s run through the potential scenarios:
Houston Texans (+175)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +7000 (23rd)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +15000 (32nd)
Personally, I find the Texans being listed as Watson’s most likely 2021 team completely laughable. Watson has overcome a tremendous amount just to make it to the NFL, so the idea that a few million in fines from holding out would ‘force’ him into going back on his word and playing for Houston seems insane.
A 2017 New York Post article expands on Watson’s childhood: “living with his siblings without a father figure in government housing, playing pickup football games with gang members and drug dealers outside 815 Harrison Square, before his mother, Deann, found a way to find them a home and the hope that accompanies it through Habitat for Humanity. There was more to overcome as well.”
During his final season at Clemson, head coach Dabo Sweeney asked players to pick a word to help encourage themselves throughout the season. Watson’s word? Legendary.
Why would someone who has gone through what Watson’s gone through—someone who wants to be Legendary—back down from their own word to placate an organization that does not put them in a position to be successful? In my opinion, they won’t. The likelihood Watson plays for Houston again is much closer to 0% than sportsbooks are willing to admit. This presents an opportunity for NFL futures bettors.
Carolina Panthers (+400)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +15000 (t-28th)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +4000 (t-18th)
Now we are talking. Both the possibility of landing Watson and the crucial building blocks of a solid coaching staff and plenty of young talent has catapulted the Panthers’ Super Bowl odds up nearly 10 spots from last season.
The real question: Does Carolina have the cap room and resources necessary to make a compelling offer?
According to overthecap.com, Carolina currently sits 14th in available 2021 salary cap with about $18.4 million. Close enough to Watson’s $40 million a year number to make it there with modest roster turnover/cuts.
Affording Watson isn’t even half the battle, as whoever lands him will need to part ways with significant draft capital and (potentially) a star player or two. Carolina, fortunately, owns all of their own draft picks for the next four seasons. Parting ways with nearly all of those early-round picks would certainly sting, but it’s easy to see the justification given how Watson has performed on the field. Throwing in a player like Christian McCaffrey could be the icing that convinces Houston the cake is sufficiently sweet.
How good of an offer Carolina ends up making is anyone’s guess, the bottom line is they are well-positioned to at least give themselves a chance. The idea of Watson at the helm of a Joe Brady offense is incredibly tantalizing, given check-down King Teddy Bridgewater had a career season in 2020 despite his minuscule 7.6 ADoT and subpar rushing ability.
[Bet Carolina +6000 to Win the SB at PointsBet]
Chicago Bears (+400)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +5000 (t-17th)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +6000 (t-22nd)
Setting aside the humiliation aspect of trading the farm for a player they passed on in the 2017 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears clock in as the third most likely team to start the season with Watson. Recent ESPN reports even suggest the Bears may have the best offer currently on the table.
According to ESPN, the Chicago Bears have a massive offer on the table for Deshaun Watson. 👀 pic.twitter.com/IJKHwt2kY4
— Gridiron (@Gridiron) March 4, 2021
What are the chances he winds up in Chicago, though?
The raw numbers: -$17.5 million in cap room (5th-worst).
Entering the 2021 league year, Chicago is 1 of 10 teams with negative cap space per overthecap.com, and is the only team with negative cap space in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes according to the DraftKings Sportsbook odds above.
I’m sorry to all you Illinois bettors. Without a litany of cuts and roster reorganization, it doesn’t appear the Bears can realistically afford Watson.
Can they at least provide the draft capital?
After departing with their 2019 and 2020 first-round picks to secure the Khalil Mack trade, Chicago actually has full control of their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round selections for the next four years, similar to Carolina. Granted, they do also offer one of the worst possible 2021 first-round picks (of teams in the hunt for Watson), clocking in at #20 overall.
The most important thing to keep in mind with the Bears is that Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy are making the decisions. Ryan Pace orchestrated the trade to move up in the 2017 Draft to select Mitch Trubisky (and thus passing on Watson). If Pace trades for Watson, he’s openly admitting his biggest move as GM was a mistake, one that surely wouldn’t be viewed kindly by Chicago media.
On the other hand, an argument could be made that since both Nagy and Pace are fighting to keep their jobs, they will mortgage the Bears future (again) to give themselves a 1-year window at contract extensions.
Personally, I think the humiliation and post-hindsight regret will prevent the Bears from securing Watson. Oh, and also the salary cap.
Denver Broncos (+400)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +5000 (t-17th)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +6000 (t-22nd)
Denver has both the available cap room ($32.3 million) and, just like Carolina and Chicago, all of their day 1+2 picks for the next four years.
Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and K.J. Hamler running routes with Deshaun Watson under center would surely be a sight to behold, which makes Denver one of the better potential outcomes here.
Unfortunately, the idea Denver would hold off on pursuing Watson in order to give the sometimes-mediocre Drew Lock another year needs to be entertained. In 2020, Lock finished 30/35 QBs with at least 250 dropbacks in PFF passing grade, last in adjusted completion %, 32/35 in passer rating, and most importantly: 4–9 as a starter.
Expect the Broncos to make some serious offers.
[Bet Broncos +6500 to Win the SB at BetMGM]
San Francisco 49ers (+800)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +1000 (t-3rd)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +1500 (7th)
If he ends up a 49er, sportsbooks should go ahead and pay out MVP bets on Watson before the season starts.
With a solid cap number of $23.9 million and control over all their high-round draft picks (except their 2021 3rd-rounder), San Francisco would need to let some guys go (cough Jimmy G cough), but still has a serious chance at getting Watson.
Given how well the 49ers have drafted in the Kyle Shannahan era, it’s possible they look at 3–4 years of 1st round picks as too valuable to part with - even for a franchise player like Watson.
The obvious counterargument is Jimmy Garoppollo and Nick Mullens. Neither QB, despite excellent offensive play calling and tremendous personnel talent, have been able to help this offense reach its true ceiling.
Deshaun Watson would open up one of the league’s most efficient offenses in a way almost no other NFL QB can. The 49ers know that and they will act accordingly.
Miami Dolphins (+800)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +15000 (t-28th)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +2500 (t-11th)
The 2020 Dolphins made the biggest step forward of any team in the NFL, but Tua Tagovailoa’s unwillingness to push the ball downfield led to missing the playoffs and a surprising amount of playing time for backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, a situation Miami coaches would love to avoid in 2021.
The Dolphins offer the 10th-best current cap situation in the NFL ($24.3 million) and they have the Texans 2021 first and second-round draft picks (#3 & #36 overall) along with all of their own day 1+2 draft picks for the next four years.
Out of any team discussed thus far, the Dolphins can absolutely put together the most compelling package of draft picks. Why aren’t they the most likely to land Watson?
Similar to the psychological barrier of the Bears trading for a player they passed on in the 2017 draft, the Texans trading away their top asset for draft picks that used to be their own is…suboptimal. This by itself is enough to depress Miami’s odds all the way down to 8–1.
Expect the Dolphins to make a run, but offering an asset back to the people you bought it from at a higher price hasn’t been historically successful in the NFL. Yet.
New York Jets (+1100)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +10000 (26th)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +8000 (t-29th)
Of potential trade destinations, no team would harm Watson’s 2021 MVP chances as much as the Jets.
While they do offer the 2nd-most cap room of any team ($69.2 million) and four first-round picks over the next two seasons thanks to the Jamaal Adams trade, the Jets see depressed odds of landing Watson due to the assumption they would rather draft a QB 2nd overall.
With so much draft capital and cap room to sign free agents, the Jets should be able to drastically improve without trading for Watson. They can certainly make a strong offer, but sportsbooks seem to agree that New York has its eyes on the draft, and likely not a blockbuster trade.
What gang green ends up offering is anyone’s best guess.
Washington Football Team (+1400)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +25000 (31st)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +6000 (t-22nd)
With $38.9 million in cap space and a full complement of draft picks (plus an additional 2021 3rd rounder), Washington could at least make a compelling offer for Watson.
Thus far, all reports indicate the Football Team hasn’t even picked up the phone yet. This leaves some serious doubt on if they will even make an attempt at the star QB.
Given the greater organizational dysfunction we’ve seen from Washington in recent years, we can safely view them as a very unlikely but still kinda possible destination.
New England Patriots (+1400)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +2200 (t-9th)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +4000 (t-18th)
Just as unlikely as Washington, New England has never been the kind of team to give up years of first-round draft picks for anyone, even a QB of Watson’s caliber. With the rest of the offensive roster in subpar shape, to say the least, it’s quite a longshot Belichick would put all his eggs in the Watson basket without access to stronger offensive weapons.
Even so, New England presents the 3rd-most cap room of any team ($68.5 million) and with the exception of a 2021 third-rounder, all of their day 1+2 picks for the next four years.
The bottom line is New England can make a strong run at Watson, but it’s much more likely they don’t view the roster as being ready to do so. Belichick has always taken a slow and steady approach to roster building and I don’t expect that to change.
Las Vegas Raiders (+2000)
2020 Super Bowl Odds: +8000 (25th)
2021 Super Bowl Odds: +5000 (t-20th)
The Raiders have the distinction of being both the last team I will mention and the least likely to grab Watson. Let’s break it down.
With $17.9 million in cap space, Las Vegas offers one of the more mediocre cap numbers of any team in the hunt for Watson.
Like many other teams, they control all their own early-day draft picks, and could thus put together a package of picks that could at least compete with other offers.
Realistically, the only way the Raiders can make a deal for Watson happen is if they trade Derek Carr. Anything could happen, but that seems like a stretch.
The True Odds of Landing Watson
The general assumption of logic and rationality among members of NFL front offices is one that’s often incorrect but needs to be taken in order to continue this analysis.
After breaking down each potential suitor, it’s safe to say we can eliminate the Texans from contention. If we do so, what are each remaining team’s true odds of landing Watson? (Using implied odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
What complicates this is DraftKings’ absurd 45.01% hold percentage on just these top ten teams. Adjusting for that is crucial to determining the ‘true’ odds of landing Watson, and it also showcases how sportsbooks make it difficult to bet (and prof) on futures, but that’s a topic for another day.
What if we take this one step further, and using a bit of that logic and rationality, assume Chicago is out of serious contention due to their present cap situation. What are the odds then?
This second chart is what I believe to be the best possible approximation of how likely each of the top 10 teams is to land Watson. If you think the Bears are in contention, you can use that first chart to guide you.
The 2021 MVP Race
Since the MVP award is decided by humans, there are some clearly observable trends that we notice in the voting.
The first, and most obvious, is that back-to-back MVPs are an extremely rare breed. Since 1989, only Joe Montana, Brett Favre (Favre won three consecutive, splitting the 1997 award with Barry Sanders), and Peyton Manning have had the honor of winning the award in consecutive seasons.
Winning two MVPs in three seasons is just as unlikely, as only Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, and Steve Young have managed to snag the trophy twice in three seasons without back-to-back honors (since 1989).
We obviously can’t completely eliminate Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, but voter trends suggest it’s (at the very least) more difficult for them to win the award than it would be for a first-timer like Watson or Kyler.
As of this moment, Watson is listed 10th in MVP odds, clocking in at 20–1. Looking at the overall board, it’s fairly obvious Watson’s odds are inflated due to the risk of a season-long holdout, granted that risk is borderline 0% if we take the leap and assume rational decision-making from Houston.
The Texans being regarded as the worst team in the league right now (32nd in Super Bowl Odds) doesn’t help his MVP odds much either. This brings us to another obvious MVP trend: playing on a great team.
Since the MVP award was created in 1957, only two award winners played on teams who missed the playoffs, and both of those instances took place before 1975 (1967 Johnny Unitas and 1973 OJ Simpson). Modern MVP voters simply won’t give the award to players on non-playoff teams, so we can safely eliminate Watson from the race if he somehow ends up playing for Houston in 2021.
When it comes to the remaining nine teams in contention for Watson, just two of them (CHI and WAS) managed to make the 2020 playoffs. Even so, Carolina, San Francisco, Denver, and Miami fall into both the categories of teams who could have made the playoffs with elite QB play and also being the most likely potential destinations for Watson.
If we combine the ‘Watson probabilities’ of both the two 2020 playoff teams and the four teams that could have been playoff bound with stronger QB play, we get a roughly 81.7% chance Watson ends up on a playoff team in 2021, if we assume Houston is completely out of the running. Even eliminating Chicago still leaves Watson with a roughly 77.7% chance of landing on a likely 2021 playoff team.
Does 20–1 seem like a value yet? With an estimated 80% probability of playing for a potential playoff team, anything close to a repeat of his 2020 outputs along with a playoff birth would surely keep Watson near the top of the MVP conversation.
Conclusion: Bet on Deshaun Watson to Win NFL MVP
If you’ve made it this far, you’ve likely noticed the most difficult part of this kind of analysis is all the assumptions we have to make about NFL front offices and their decision-making process.
Crazy things happen in the NFL, and teams often make irrational decisions.
None of that changes how special Watson’s 2020 season was. None of that changes that he will refuse to ever play for the Texans again. None of that changes the fact that all the most likely destinations would be playoff-caliber teams with Watson under center.
By carefully analyzing as many details of the situation as we possibly can, we can easily eliminate much of the uncertainty that’s suppressing Watson’s MVP chances (the risk of a holdout/bad trade destination) and conclude there is value in embracing the unknown, as risky as that may be.
[Bet Watson +2000 to Win MVP at PointsBet]
[Bet Watson +2000 to Win MVP at DraftKings]
Image Credit: Imagn