DRAFT PGA Value Watch: The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges
Each week, Justin Van Zuiden will list the players he is overweight (heavier exposure than the field) and underweight (lower exposure than the field) on. Dominate your DRAFT drafts with this cheat sheet from one of the best in daily fantasy sports!
The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges
Golfers I Am Overweight On
Justin Thomas – He’s my pick if I get the top selection on DRAFT. There is always merit to targeting Justin Thomas in these no cut events, as Thomas is never shy about taking the “grip it and rip it” approach and hunting birdies. Sure, he will make some bogeys when he is not completely on his game, but his go low upside is as high as any player in the field. Thomas is now healthy and is a past champion here, and his stats line up well for this course. He ranked 22nd on Tour in ball striking a year ago and led the universe in par five scoring. Eagles are a huge boost to fantasy production, and Thomas has the most potential of anyone in the field. Look for him to try to grab his second win in three tries at Nine Bridges.
Brooks Koepka – If you get a later pick in the first round, you can try to grab Koepka. DRAFT has him below seven other golfers this week, including Andrew Putnam. That’s just too low for a golfer who is elite by every measure and is the defending champion of this event. While he missed the cut in his last tournament, that should be well into the rear view mirror by now. Expect Koepka to feast on the four par fives at this course.
Marc Leishman – The summer of 2019 was not kind to Marc Leishman. As we transitioned into the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the close of the 2018-2019 season, the bloom was falling off every rose for the Aussie. His withdrawal at the Greenbrier got the fall swing off to a poor start. That led to Leishman garnering sub-5% ownership everywhere for the Safeway Open a few weeks back… where he of course proceeded to shoot 67-65 on the weekend to surge up to third place. That certainly doesn’t mean that he is all the way back, but it’s a promising sign. I’d rather try to peg him a week early than miss the boat on his resurgence, especially since ownership will remain low at these salaries (particularly on DK/FDRFT). Leishman is a good wind player with a solid short game, and he still finished ranked 31st in par five scoring and 41st in putting during a down 2018-2019 year. I’m happy to start captaining the ship again. He’s a fine pick in the middle rounds.
Rafael Cabrera Bello – I will not have much RCB exposure on the salary cap sites this week, but he is a worthwhile late round investment in larger field DRAFT games. He clearly has an affinity for this course, as he has finished 3rd and 11th in his previous two trips to Nine Bridges. The tee to green game is solid, and RCB has the upside to win this event. Give him a look in the 4th or 5th round.
Tyrrell Hatton – His PGA Tour putting stats look terrible from last year, but we can attribute some of that to the fact that Hatton generally only plays in stronger events. He is generally known for an immaculate short game, one which should serve him well here. Hatton was one of two golfers who did not log a three putt at this event a year ago on his way to a 14th place finish. He has posted solid recent results on the European Tour with back-to-back top 20’s at the Alfred Dunhill and the Italian Open, so the form is also trending in the right direction. He’s a fine pick to round out your roster on DRAFT.
DRAFT is starting to peg the young golfers somewhat correctly, but both Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa remain a great value if they last to the mid/later rounds.
Golfers I Am Underweight On
Viktor Hovland – I’m a big fan, but DRAFT has finally pegged his projection correctly. Now that he’s the second projected option on the entire board, I’m happy letting someone else spend a first round pick on him. After all, you can get elite names that have won here before in the first round like Thomas and Koepka, whereas Hovland is making his first trip.
Andrew Putnam – Sure, the form is pretty good and he’s a reasonable mid-range play on the salary cap sites, but DRAFT simply has Putnam pegged far too highly. There is no reason he should be projected ahead of the likes of Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood. I’ll pass on using a late first round pick on him.
Billy Horschel – We have yet to see Horschel so far in the fall swing, and he finished 67th in his first trip here a year ago. This does not profile as his type of course, and we often see him struggle on layouts that don’t fit his game well. I’ll happily let someone else take the chance in the middle rounds.
Kevin Na – The recent form is likely going to see Na get over-drafted in most DRAFT contests this week. He’s played in both previous editions of this event, with finishes of 47th and 52nd in a 78-man event. I’m not going to overpick him, and that will lead to be having very little exposure.
Pat Perez – He has good results in his first two trips here, but I am not convinced that Perez is operating at 100% health. He was unable to compete in Houston a week ago and was a super late withdrawal from the event. Tread carefully if you are thinking of taking him on DRAFT.