KenPom vs. Betting Market: Do Texas Tech & Ohio State CBB Futures Have Value?
After a spring without the NCAA Tournament, the 2020-21 college basketball season starts this week. The polls are out, futures odds are available at online sports betting sites, and teams are rated 1 to 357 at KenPom.
Let’s look at a few teams whom the 2021 Pomeroy College Basketball are more bullish on than the betting market is.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
KenPom: 6th
AP/Coaches Polls: 14/13
Betting Odds: +3000 (~16th)
Maybe I’m a homer but in hindsight buying the Red Raiders +4000 as an early March Madness bet for the 2021 Tournament wasn’t a bad idea. Texas Tech didn’t snag Johnathan Kuminga, one of the top-ranked recruits in the nation who decided to forego college and play in the G League. However, Kuminga’s older brother, Joel Ntambwe, will make his debut in Red and Black after sitting out last season due to transfer restrictions. Ntambwe averaged 11.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game as a freshman at UNLV, where he had season-highs of 31 points and 15 rebounds as a starter. It’s been nearly two years since the 6-foot-8 shooting threat has played in a competitive game, and you can bet he made significant improvements working with Chris Beard’s strength and training staff for a whole year. Oh yeah, did I mention he might be coming off the bench?
Texas Tech added two high-profile transfers, Mac McClung and Marcus Santos-Silva, in the offseason. If you pay attention to the Big East, you’re already familiar with McClung who transferred out of Georgetown. Chris Beard won the Mac sweepstakes, and the high-flying junior guard was subsequently given a transfer waiver earlier this fall. While McClung was dropping 14.2 points per game in the nation’s capital, his new teammate Marcus Santos-Silva was busy snagging 9 rebounds and adding 12.8 points per game a few hours south at VCU. These two players will make Texas Tech’s starting lineup one of the most talented groups in that nation. What we could really use is an Over/Under for how soon McClung will make SportsCenter’s top plays.
Additionally, Texas Tech acquired junior guard Jamarius Burton. Burton left Wichita State averaging 10.3 points per game and leading the team in assists. Burton was expected to redshirt instead of seeking a transfer waiver, but plans changed following the NCAA’s announcement that the 2020-21 season won’t count against players’ eligibility. In light of the recent news, Burton will now have an immediate role on an already deep Texas Tech roster.
That’s not to even mention the underclassmen in Lubbock.
Terrance Shannon is already an NBA prospect after starting as a freshman for the Red Raiders last season, and Beard brings in two of the best recruits the program has ever signed. Freshmen Nimari Burnett and Micah Peavy enter as the 22nd and 36-ranked recruits from the 2020 class, per ESPN’s Top 100. Word on the street is that Peavy is a potential one-and-done and that there will be nights where he’s the best player on the floor.
Sadly I’m running out of space to write about Kevin McCullar and Kyler Edwards — the former being Texas Tech’s best defensive player, and the latter of whom played a pivotal role during the program’s first Final Four run in 2019.
All of that to say, Chris Beard is loaded — maybe more so than when he led the Red Raiders to an Elite Eight berth, and dare I say more than when the team lost in the national title game?
Without a doubt this is one of the deepest teams in the country. Beard has to figure out how to make everyone happy since there are so many mouths to feed. If he can make the pieces fit, they’ll be a contender in arguably the best college basketball conference in the nation. If any coach can do it, Beard can.
If you didn’t grab Texas Tech +4000 in the summer, go ahead and bet on them +3000 now. They sit 6th in the KenPom ratings but as low as 18th on college basketball futures sheets, which is closer to their ranking in the national polls.
We’ll get to see how good this team is when they play No. 17 Houston this Sunday on ESPN 2. My advice to betting on this team during the season is to bet on the 2H line. They’ll be leading more times than not, and they conservatively have ten players who can ball. And if they aren’t in the lead, Beard is one of the best when it comes to making halftime adjustments.
[Bet on Texas Tech +3000 at William Hill]
Texas Longhorns
KenPom: 9th
AP/Coaches Polls: 19/22
Betting Odds: +5000 (~25th)
In terms of the gap between the betting market and the Pomeroy ratings, the Longhorns are very similar to the Red Raiders. Sitting 9th in the Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings, Shaka Smart’s squad is one of five Big 12 schools inside the top 10.
Smart has largely been a disappointment after taking over for Rick Barnes. It’s safe to say the eyes of Texas are upon him this season, and not in a good way — Smart is on the hot seat as Longhorns boosters demand a return to national prominence.
Though Smart has failed to meet expectations in the win column, the 43-year-old has done just fine on the recruiting trail. It makes his on-court failures that much more puzzling, but the arrival of 9th-ranked recruit Greg Brown could breathe life into a basketball program that is struggling to keep pace with the likes of their in-state rivals, Baylor and Texas Tech.
[Bet on the Texas Longhorns +5000 at Unibet]
Ohio State Buckeyes
KenPom: 10th
AP/Coaches Polls: 23/24
Betting Odds: +3000 (~16th)
Ohio State ended 21-10, but it was an up-and-down season to say the least. After a 10-0 start, which included a victory against Villanova, they would finish only two games above .500 in Big Ten play.
It’s tough to say how things will play out this season after the Buckeyes lost junior forward Kaleb Wilson to the NBA draft, plus two guards who decided to transfer out. However, they do return four of their top eight scorers while bringing in one of the top grad transfers, Seth Towns.
[Bet on Ohio State +3000 at PointsBet]
Image Credit: Imagn