NASCAR By the Numbers: Brickyard 400
This weekend, we head to Indy for the Brickyard 400. I’m really sad I had to cancel my trip – I can’t remember the last time I felt this sick. The race is Sunday at 3PM EST on NBCSN.
This weekend, we will be focusing on one to two dominators and going really heavy on place differential guys. We typically see one guy lead around 40-60% of the laps, and then it’s mixed up pretty good after that. It’s been a while since someone led over 100 laps (2009 – Juan Pablo Montoya – 116 laps). There’s a lot of talk surrounding Jeff Gordon this weekend, and he’s won this race five times in his career. This will be his first race this season and only his third time in this new aero package that they tested twice in his final season. I think it’s a great week for Fantasy NASCAR, and I’m excited for the RotoGrinders NASCAR announcement coming soon.
Kyle Busch – $10,400 – Starting 1st – Above, I mentioned that we want one to two dominators, and Kyle Busch is our guy this weekend. With clean air, Kyle could be the first person since 2009 to lead over 100 laps in a race. I’m going to be extremely heavy on him this weekend, and I think he’s by far the best play on the board. Kyle has finished second or better in three of the last four races here, and he’s the defending race winner. This is his first career pole at Indy. He comes in with the third-highest driver rating, and again, he’s as close as it gets to a must play in cash games.
Matt Kenseth – $9,600 – Starting 18th – While Kyle might be the best dominator play, Kenseth looks to be the best place differential play. Kenseth was one of my favorite plays coming into the weekend, and he’s coming off a win at New Hampshire last weekend. Current form is always something to consider when building lineups, and Kenseth has four top tens in his last seven races. He’s finished seventh or better in four of the last five Indianapolis races. Kenseth leads all active drivers with 1,369 laps in the top 15. I’m locking him in with Kyle for cash games this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson – $9,700 – Starting 13th – Johnson just missed the final round of qualifying, and he actually sets up as a very good play. While place differential is important, finishing position could put Johnson in the top five in fantasy points scored this weekend. It’s very rare to see his price tag under $10,000, and Gordon is the only active driver with more wins at Indy. Johnson has won four of the last ten races here. He struggled the last two years, but I really like his chances to get back on track this year. Johnson has the highest driver rating among active drivers and would score at least 47 fantasy points with a top five finish.
Kasey Kahne – $7,700 – Starting 26th – Kahne really struggled on Saturday during qualifying, which actually makes him a solid option for fantasy. This has been one of Kahne’s best tracks, and he comes in with an average finish of 14.33. In twelve career races here, Kahne has finished 18th or better nine times. With place differential being so important this weekend, Kahne is one of the top options for cash games. As you can see above, Kahne fills the stat sheet here, and he’s in the top five of quality passes, which is always good when starting towards the back. Kahne is one of the drivers trying to take advantage of Dale Jr. not being here and will look to get himself in the top 16 in points this weekend.
Value Plays
Aric Almirola – $6,700 – Starting 29th – I feel like I play Almirola more than anyone else, but this is another spot that I like his chances for a top-twenty finish. If he’s able to pull off a top twenty, he will be a very solid cash game play. He struggled last year and had an issue that gave him his lowest career finish (38th) at Indy. He’s finished 21st or better in the other three races here, and I think he did us a big favor qualifying towards the back. I think Paul Menard is also in play here, and I can’t wait to see the ownership for Almirola.
Casey Mears – $5,900 – Starting 34th – Mears and his team missed the setup on Saturday, and he was very slow in practice. This is risky, he’s been good or really bad in his career at this track. Starting 34th definitely lowers the risk, but the risk is still very real here. With Germain Racing, Mears has five races at Indy, and he has an average finish of 28.6. Last year he finished 20th, and that was his best finish here with Germain Racing. The risk/reward puts him in play for me, and he’s a guy that I’ll be using in GPPs.
Jeff Gordon
“Gordon, who retired at the end of the of 2015 to enter the FOX NASCAR booth as an analyst, most recently raced in the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where he finished sixth in his bid for a fifth NASCAR Sprint Cup Series title. He ranks third in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history with 93 wins and also boasts 325 top fives, 475 top 10s and 81 poles. Gordon, who spent the majority of his childhood in Pittsboro, Indiana, claims five career victories at Indianapolis and six at Pocono – both track records. He last won at Indy – site of Sunday’s race (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN) – in 2015.” – NASCAR Wire Service
I know I’m going to get a million questions about Gordon, so I wanted to just go ahead and give my thoughts here. Jeff Gordon is one of the best, and he’s been amazing at Indy. He wrecked out early last year, but he won the race here back in 2014. He’s posted a top ten finish in four of the last five, and 16 of 22 career races here. They tested this package last season at Kentucky (7th) and Michigan (21st). This will only be his third time in this package, and it’s his first race since Homestead of last year. It worries me, but he’s still Jeff Gordon, one of the best drivers off all time. I don’t think I would play him in cash games, but I do think he’s in play for GPPs this weekend.