NASCAR First Look: Auto Club 400
It’s really hard to wait for me until Friday night to write about NASCAR, so we’ve decided to start a weekly preview article. Each week we will break down the upcoming race, post recent results, and throw out a few tips as well.
If there’s anything you’d like to see in this preview article, just leave a comment below and we will do our best to make it happen.
Track Preview
Auto Club Speedway
- 2-mile D-shaped oval
- 400 miles/200 laps
- Comparable to Michigan
- Track Width: 75 feet wide with 15-foot apron
- Turns 1-2; 3-4: 14-degree banking
- Front Stretch: 11-degree banking; 3100 feet in length
- Back Straightaway: 3-degree banking; 2500 feet in length
Weekend Strategy
Looking back at past results, there have been two to four people who have led over 10% of the laps per race. This week I recommend finding two guys you think can lead a lot of laps and finding four guys with place differential upside. Qualifying is always important, but even more this week. Below are charts that you can sort to get an idea of where the place differential guys are coming from.
Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson are the two drivers I’m looking at the most for qualifying position. If either one of them qualify up front, they should lead a good amount of the laps on Sunday. They’re both very solid at this track, and they are the early favorites for me.
Brian Vickers should be back in the #14 car this weekend, though nothing is official yet. He has an average finish of 14.6 in 13 career races here and should be a good value play if he’s priced in the 5K range again.
Stats from 2005-Present
Top 5 Driver Rating
Denny Hamlin – 103.3
Tony Stewart – 103.0
Jimmie Johnson – 100.8
Brad Keselowski – 99.8
Kyle Busch – 97.2
Top 5 Average Running Position
Chase Elliott – 10.206 (1 Race)
Denny Hamlin – 11.093
Brad Keselowski – 11.263
Kevin Harvick – 11.292
Tony Stewart – 11.371
Jimmie Johnson – 11.392
Top 5 Average Finish
Denny Hamlin – 10.2
Brad Keselowksi – 10.7
Tony Stewart – 11.0
Jimmie Johnson – 11.3
Greg Biffle – 12.4
Top 5 Fastest on Restarts
- Average speed of first two laps under green.
Rank Car Driver Team Avg. Finish Speed
1 10 Danica Patrick Nature’s Bakery 26.1 126.245
2 18 Kyle Busch M&M’s 14.2 122.424
3 23 David Ragan Dr. Pepper 26.5 122.415
4 38 Landon Cassill Snap Fitness 31.5 122.143
5 2 Brad Keselowski Miller Lite 10.7 122.075
2015 Race Results
| Driver | Starting Spot | Finishing Spot | Car |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | 8 | 1 | #2 |
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 2 | #4 |
| Kurt Busch | 1 | 3 | #41 |
| Paul Menard | 11 | 4 | #27 |
| Ryan Newman | 9 | 5 | #31 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 17 | 6 | #88 |
| Joey Logano | 13 | 7 | #22 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 12 | 8 | #78 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 14 | 9 | #48 |
| Jeff Gordon | 7 | 10 | #24 |
| Aric Almirola | 23 | 11 | #43 |
| Justin Allgaier | 31 | 12 | #51 |
| Carl Edwards | 15 | 13 | #19 |
| Tony Stewart | 20 | 14 | #14 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 27 | 15 | #17 |
| Austin Dillon | 21 | 16 | #3 |
| Kasey Kahne | 19 | 17 | #5 |
| David Ragan | 4 | 18 | #18 |
| Danica Patrick | 22 | 19 | #10 |
| Chris Buescher | 33 | 20 | #34 |
| Jamie McMurray | 26 | 21 | #1 |
| Brett Moffitt | 30 | 22 | #55 |
| Casey Mears | 37 | 23 | #13 |
| Cole Whitt | 32 | 24 | #35 |
| Landon Cassill | 40 | 25 | #40 |
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 26 | #42 |
| Brian Scott | 25 | 27 | #33 |
| Denny Hamlin | 6 | 28 | #11 |
| Trevor Bayne | 36 | 29 | #6 |
| Clint Bowyer | 10 | 30 | #15 |
| Matt Kenseth | 3 | 31 | #20 |
| Greg Biffle | 29 | 32 | #16 |
| Alex Bowman | 28 | 33 | #7 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 18 | 34 | #47 |
| David Gilliland | 43 | 35 | #38 |
| Josh Wise | 35 | 36 | #98 |
| J.J. Yeley | 41 | 37 | #23 |
| Michael Annett | 24 | 38 | #46 |
| Jeb Burton | 34 | 39 | #26 |
| Mike Bliss | 39 | 40 | #32 |
| Brendan Gaughan | 38 | 41 | #62 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 42 | 42 | #83 |
| Sam Hornish Jr. | 16 | 43 | #9 |
Top 5 Lap Leaders
Kurt Busch – 65
Denny Hamlin – 56
Matt Kenseth – 43
Kevin Harvick – 34
Martin Truex Jr. – 5
Top 5 Positive Place Differential
Justin Allgaier +19
Landon Cassill +15
Casey Mears +14
Chris Buescher +13
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +12
Top 5 Negative Place Differential
Matt Kenseth -28
Sam Hornish Jr. -27
Denny Hamlin -22
Kyle Larson -21
Clint Bowyer -20
Top 5 Average Running Position
Kurt Busch – 2.225
Kevin Harvick – 2.340
Matt Kenseth – 6.553
Denny Hamlin – 6.708
Jimmie Johnson – 6.713
2014 Race Results
| Driver | Starting Spot | Finishing Spot | Car |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 14 | 1 | #18 |
| Kyle Larson | 11 | 2 | #42 |
| Kurt Busch | 17 | 3 | #41 |
| Matt Kenseth | 1 | 4 | #20 |
| Tony Stewart | 10 | 5 | #14 |
| Jamie McMurray | 25 | 6 | #1 |
| Brian Vickers | 19 | 7 | #55 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 18 | 8 | #47 |
| Paul Menard | 30 | 9 | #27 |
| Carl Edwards | 9 | 10 | #99 |
| Austin Dillon | 20 | 11 | #3 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 15 | 12 | #88 |
| Jeff Gordon | 6 | 13 | #24 |
| Danica Patrick | 27 | 14 | #10 |
| Casey Mears | 31 | 15 | #13 |
| Clint Bowyer | 5 | 16 | #15 |
| Sam Hornish Jr. | 13 | 17 | #11 |
| Cole Whitt | 34 | 18 | #26 |
| Michael Annett | 23 | 19 | #7 |
| Ryan Newman | 16 | 20 | #31 |
| Reed Sorenson | 36 | 21 | #36 |
| Alex Bowman | 40 | 22 | #23 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 12 | 23 | #78 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 3 | 24 | #48 |
| Landon Cassill | 43 | 25 | #40 |
| Brad Keselowski | 2 | 26 | #2 |
| David Ragan | 41 | 27 | #34 |
| Justin Allgaier | 28 | 28 | #51 |
| David Reutimann | 33 | 29 | #35 |
| Marcos Ambrose | 8 | 30 | #9 |
| Ryan Truex | 39 | 31 | #83 |
| Joe Nemechek | 42 | 32 | #66 |
| Travis Kvapil | 35 | 33 | #32 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 22 | 34 | #17 |
| Brian Scott | 37 | 35 | #33 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 36 | #4 |
| Josh Wise | 38 | 37 | #98 |
| David Gilliland | 29 | 38 | #38 |
| Joey Logano | 7 | 39 | #22 |
| Greg Biffle | 24 | 40 | #16 |
| Kasey Kahne | 26 | 41 | #5 |
| Parker Kligerman | 32 | 42 | #30 |
| Aric Almirola | 21 | 43 | #43 |
Top 5 Lap Leaders
Jimmie Johnson – 104
Brad Keselowski – 38
Jeff Gordon – 23
Matt Kenseth – 19
Kyle Busch – 5
Top 5 Positive Place Differential
Paul Menard +21
Jamie McMurray +19
Landon Cassill +18
Alex Bowman +18
Casey Mears +16
Top 5 Negative Place Differential
Kevin Harvick -32
Joey Logano -32
Brad Keselowski -24
Marcus AMbrose -22
Aric Almirola -22
Top 5 Average Running Position
Jimmie Johnson – 4.437
Matt Kenseth – 4.573
Kyle Busch – 6.097
Brian Vickers – 6.883
Jeff Gordon – 7.262