NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 14, Steelers at Bengals

In this week’s “Matchup of the Week,” our experts break down an interesting division battle between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. These teams both have potent offenses — where will all of the fantasy goodness come from? JMToWin and other RotoGrinders contributors give their thoughts in this weekly matchup breakdown.

JMToWin’s Matchup Focus

Article Image

It’s good we waited until late in the week to look at this game, as a lot depends on injury news.

Oh, wait. We still don’t have much more clarity on the injury news we are waiting on…

There are a few really interesting things to explore in this game, and this was a great game for us to separate from the NFL Edge this week and to make available for all RotoGrinders readers, as the way you decide to attack this game yourself will ultimately be one of the main things that makes or breaks your weekend in Week 14.

Why is that?

Because Ben Roethlisberger is likely to be the most popular quarterback by the time we reach Sunday, and Antonio Brown is likely to be the most popular play this side of LeSean McCoy if Pacman Jones misses this week (and heck, may even be the most popular play this side of LeSean McCoy even if Pacman Jones plays). As such, the decision to play or fade these guys is one that needs to be made intentionally, knowing that fading them could put you behind a large chunk of the field if you are wrong, while playing them will pack you in alongside high ownership numbers.

Typically, of course, I like to use this space to talk about how a game is likely to play out, but given the fact that we pretty much know how each of these teams will attack the other (the Steelers’ strong run defense funnels opponents toward the pass, and the Steelers themselves are going to chuck the ball into the air all throughout the game regardless), I am instead going to shift attention toward more of a focus on some of the ins and outs of each individual play.

Starting with Antonio Brown: when a player puts up as many monster games as Brown has put up lately, it starts to become an inevitability in our minds that this will continue. It happened with Julio Jones earlier this year; it happened with Devonta Freeman as well; we also saw this with Todd Gurley. Everyone begins to assume these guys are “must plays,” even as they become the highest-priced guys on the slate. The truth is: every player is susceptible to poor games, even in the best of spots, and the Bengals have a strong enough defensive scheme that they may be able to slow down Antonio Brown even if Pacman Jones is out. Reports out of Cincinnati today still leave things murky on Jones, but things are looking up for Leon Hall, who has also played at a very high level this year. Given the high ownership Brown is likely to see, I would not at all dislike the idea of fading him in tourneys. After all, there are a lot of other places to look this week, and Brown is not the only guy on the slate with 30-point upside.

Article Image

Because we know the Steelers are going to pass, and pass, and pass, a solid place to look if you move off Antonio Brown is Martavis Bryant, who will have a premium matchup for large chunks of the game against Dre Kirkpatrick. Bryant is one of the most inefficient wide receivers in the NFL – rarely catching more than 50% of his targets – but he is seeing a solid floor of around eight targets each week, with upside for more. On top of that, he is one of the most explosive players in the NFL on a per-catch basis. He is far too cheap on DraftKings, making him a great play there, and he is a bit too pricey on FanDuel for the risk he carries, which should lower his ownership and make him a great play on there as well.

Roethlisberger is probably one of my three favorite plays on the weekend at quarterback, as I do not expect a repeat of his poor performance in his last game against Cincinnati (remember: that was his first game back from injury – a situation in which Roethlisberger has consistently struggled). The volume will be there to give him a high floor, and we all know Roethlisberger in this Todd Haley offense has one of the highest ceilings any time he plays.

The final spot to turn our attention on the Steelers is toward the backfield. Vontaze Burfict missed practice on Thursday (as of this writing, there is no word on whether it was just a day of rest or was instead an injury situation), and he is one of the best run-stoppers on the Bengals. If he misses this week’s game, this upgrades DeAngelo Williams – but even if Burfict plays, DeAngelo Williams’ massive involvement in the offense makes him a strong consideration. D-Will is going to see several targets, 20+ carries, and a few touches close to the goal line, making him a safe, high-upside option.

Another area that can make or break your lineup this week is the decision you make on A.J. Green. In his last meeting with the Steelers, Green saw 17 targets and crushed the box score with an 11-118-1 line. He also had an 11-224-1 game against the Steelers last season, but as I noted leading up to the Bengals-Steelers clash earlier this year, the overall history of Green against this defense is not great, as they regularly manage to hold him under his normal production. What’s more, the Steelers seem to have moved on from Antwan Blake (who would gift Green an easy matchup) in favor of Ross Cockrell, who has played very well this season. Given the high volatility of Green’s target load and the likelihood that his last game against the Steelers leads to high ownership this week, I am in favor of the A.J. Green fade (though I’m sure I am pretty much alone in recommending that you avoid Green on your rosters, so take that for what it’s worth).

If pivoting off Green, I like the idea of moving toward Tyler Eifert. If the Steelers dedicate extra attention to slowing down A.J. Green (which seems likely), this will funnel more targets toward Eifert. He is already one of the best red zone weapons in the NFL, and while the main concern with Eifert most weeks is his inconsistent targets, I think we’ll see a good seven or eight passes go his way this week, and I like his ownership to be a lot lower than it should be.

Of course, the guy feeding the ball to these weapons is also a very strong play. After a couple disappointing outings scattered throughout the last several weeks, people seem to have lost their love for Andy Dalton, as he is once again going consistently under-owned. In much the same way that LeSean McCoy was a great play the last several weeks largely becuase of the fact no one seemed to want to roster him, Dalton should be a great play this week. His floor is lower than Roethlisberger’s, but his ceiling is just as high, and he’ll see a lot less traffic in tournaments. This makes him a really strong play from a game theory perspective.

Finally: the Bengals’ backfield. As involved as Giovani Bernard is in the pass game, he rarely gets touchdown opportunities, which really lowers his ceiling. And with as uninvolved as Jeremy Hill is in the pass game, he really needs touchdowns in order to pay off, and as such, his ceiling is pretty low most weeks – especially when he finds himself in a tough matchup such as this one.

Guys I like in cash games and tourneys: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, DeAngelo Williams, Andy Dalton, Tyler Eifert


What Our Experts Are Saying

DraftKings Projections

Article Image

According to our free DraftKings projections, it’s actually pass-catching back Giovani Bernard ($4,100 on DK) that’s the top point/$ option (13.87 projected points, 3.38 Pt/$/k) when we zone in on this particular game. Ben Roethlisberger is right up there too though. A very affordable $6,800, he’s shown what he can do when healthy, and we currently have him projected for 22.65 DK points in Week 14.

Elsewhere, Antonio Brown is always in consideration and he checks in highly on the list, as do the likes of Andy Dalton, DeAngelo Williams, A.J. Green, Martavis Bryant and so on. This one’s likely to turn into a shootout, and there’s going to be a lot of fantasy points to be had.

Head on over and check out our projections yourself to see if you can find a hidden gem or two.

FanDuel Expert Consensus Rankings

One of our prized Incentives tools, the Expert Consensus Rankings are an easy-to-understand compilation of all of our DFS experts’ top point/$ plays at each position.

Over on FanDuel, Roethlisberger is third among quarterbacks, behind only Russell Wilson and Cam Newton when all of our experts’ picks are aggregated. Looking closer, we see headChopper and Notorious both have him ranked #2 on their lists. Further down we find Dalton, who is #8 among all QBs on the Week 14 slate.

At running back, Williams is the most appealing running back in this game, as he’s ranked seventh among our experts. Meanwhile, Bernard is headChopper’s tenth-best option at the RB spot; Chop is the only ranker to have him listed, while Jeremy Hill doesn’t make the cut whatsoever.

It’s more exciting at wideout, where the likes of Brown and Green are ranked highly. Brown is the top overall selection and Green is right there in fourth.

And, at tight end, Tyler Eifert can be found at seventh on the list. It looks like JMToWin isn’t the only one considering him this weekend.

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.