NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 15, Lions at Saints

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In this week’s “Matchup of the Week,” our experts break down the matchup between Detroit and New Orleans. JMToWin and other RotoGrinders contributors give their thoughts in this weekly matchup breakdown.

JMToWin’s Matchup Focus

If you are willing to wait until Monday night for your fantasy goodness, you may be well rewarded, as we have a couple of explosive offenses playing against a couple questionable defenses. The game is being played indoors, in prime time, and there is every reason to expect each team to show up in top form.

Let’s start our exploration of this game with the visiting Lions.

Typically, when a team is playing the Saints, the issue we run into is that we do not know if the offense in question will choose to attack on the ground or through the air, as the Saints are among the worst in the NFL at defending both the run and the pass. The good news for us in this area is that the Lions have the fewest rushing yards and the second-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL (as a side note: the only team with fewer rushing attempts than the Lions is actually somehow 20th in the NFL in rushing yards; if you’re wondering how that’s possible, the answer comes in two parts: 1) Lamar Miller, and 2) The complete idiocy of the Dolphins’ coaching staff). Although I do see Ameer Abdullah as an intriguing, deep tournament option (he should get a good 12 to 15 touches, after all, and anyone can do a lot against this defense with that kind of work), we also know that the Lions are going to attack primarily through the air. This enables us to jump straight to that area of the matchup and decide who we want to load up on this week.

The big question here is “WWDBD?” (“What will Delvin Breaux do?”) Over the last three weeks, Breaux has allowed a grand total of one receiving yard. That’s pretty good. But since Rob Ryan was fired as defensive coordinator of the Saints, Breaux has not been deployed in shadow coverage. Considering that includes a game against DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans, we can (somewhat safely) assume that Breaux will stick to the right side of the offense, leaving the Lions free to shuttle Calvin Johnson over to the left side (and to Brandon Browner) as often as possible. While the Lions’ coaching staff is probably not intelligent enough to pull the “sacrificial lamb” treatment that we have seen a handful of smart teams pull against the Seahawks over the last couple years (wherein teams would stick their number three wide receiver on Richard Sherman all game – before this year, when Sherman started shadowing from time to time – effectively “shadowing” the opposing team’s weaker corners with their best weapons), I do think we’ll see Browner picked on a decent amount.

Of course, if we expect the Lions to go pass-heavy and have success, we need to also acknowledge that Calvin Johnson is probably not the only guy who will have success. While Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick have an outside shot at having an impact (and while I had a dream last night that Joique Bell had a big game against the Saints – true story), the place where the Lions are likeliest to also achieve success is by getting the ball into Golden Tate’s hands. Tate has not been used much this year as a downfield threat, but there is still plenty of PPR floor, with big-play upside against this Saints defense that frequently breaks down on the back end.

Since the Lions began using Darius Slay in shadow coverage, their defense has been playing a whole lot better. This would matter to us a lot more, however, if the Saints were a team that had only one premium weapon. Instead, the Saints are basically a team full of secondary weapons – any of whom can step up on any given week.

The most bankable component of the Saints’ offense, of course, is Drew Brees, as we are going to see the same heavy volume from him we always see (incredibly, Brees has been under 38 pass attempts just once all season!). While everyone is looking toward Stafford as a sneaky tournament option, don’t overlook Brees. Stafford will only reach his ceiling if Brees is also reaching his, and the back-and-forth nature of this game could easily lead to a monster game from Brees as well.

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The second most bankable component of the Saints’ offense is actually Benjamin Watson. This game pairs two of the worst teams in the NFL against tight ends (by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Saints are 32nd against the tight end position, while the Lions are 30th), and Watson has not been below five targets since Week 4, while seeing target totals over the last three weeks of 11, eight, and nine. Especially with the Lions doing a much better job lately on the outside, this game sets up nicely for Watson to see heavy volume and to have another solid game.

While there is always a chance that someone like Marques Colston ends up in the end zone, the floor is too low for most of the ancillary pieces on the Saints for me to want to go there. There are, however, still three places left where you can look:

1) Brandin Cooks: Cooks’ volume is too unpredictable for him to be a cash game option, and there is certainly a chance Cooks is followed all game by Darius Slay. With that said, Cooks has a big ceiling in this likely shootout, making him a sneaky tournament option.

2) Willie Snead: Everything said above about Cooks could be said here for Snead. Volume and Slay are concerns, but the ceiling is big, and he’s a sneaky tournament option.

3) Tim Hightower: I am not in love with Hightower, as I don’t expect him to be massively involved in the pass game (it seems Mark Ingram’s targets are likelier to go to Benjamin Watson than to Hightower), which lowers his floor/ceiling combo quite a bit. But even if this game is a back-and-forth affair, we should see 15 to 18 touches for Hightower, with the potential for a couple carries near the goal line. That kind of work is always worth looking at – especially when the player in question is priced as affordably as Hightower is priced.

Guys I like in cash games and tournaments: Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Drew Brees, Benjamin Watson

Guys I like in tournaments only: Ameer Abdullah, Eric Ebron, Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Tim Hightower


What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Incentives)

Below you will find a couple of writeups taken from our Incentives. We have a lot of premium content available for subscribers each week, including GPP picks, H2H picks, Cheat Sheets, Expert Consensus Rankings, and much more.

STLCardinals84’s DraftKings Tournament Picks

Calvin JohnsonYou have to like the upside for Matthew Stafford this week against the Saints. New Orleans ranks 30th in the NFL in pass defense, and they allow 279 yards per game through the air. Calvin Johnson should have one of his better games of the year in this matchup, even though he will likely see quite a bit of Delvin Breaux’s coverage. If that scares you away, you can pivot to Golden Tate at just $5,500 on DraftKings. One of them is going to have a big night.

Hoop2410’s FanDuel Head-to-Head/50-50 Picks

Tim HightowerThe Saints made one thing very clear last week; with Mark Ingram sidelined for the remainder of the season, Tim Hightower is their new workhorse back. Hightower was very effective with 28 rushes last week (85 yards and a TD). The Saints have no reason to not continue giving Hightower the ball at this point in the season, meaning he is an excellent value this week at home against the Lions.

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.