NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 17, Eagles at Giants
This week, we’ll take a closer look at the divisional battle between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. Who should we be considering for our lineups in Week 17? Find out below.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
From a DFS perspective, this is one of the most exciting games we have seen in a while. Each team in this game plays at a fast pace. Each team in this game has a bad defense. Each team in this game has an offense with the potential to put up high-powered stats.
Better yet? The Eagles players will be looking to finish strong after the firing of Chip Kelly (we often see a team have a strong game right after a coach has been fired), and the Giants will be looking to finish strong for Tom Coughlin in what may end up being his last game with the team.
The first place I will want to look in this game – for fantasy goodness – is the Giants’ passing attack. We have seen this year that Eli Manning has a much lower floor than most of the other “big name” quarterbacks – but we have also seen that his ceiling can be as high as anyone’s in the NFL. This game pits Eli against an Eagles pass defense that has been regularly abused by opposing quarterbacks, and by opposing “number one receivers.” The likely game flow in this one and the lack of resistance Eli should see through the air should combine to make him one of the top plays on the weekend.
Of course, part of the equation here – in order for Eli to have success – is the return of Odell Beckham, who will be looking to “show up” all those who have been talking about him over the last couple weeks, with a big game to close out the season. With all the injuries the Eagles have endured in their secondary, they have no one who can keep up with Beckham, and he should have no problem posting one of the top wide receiver stat lines on the weekend.
While plenty of people will move toward Eli Manning and Odell Beckham in this one, far fewer people are going to look at the third guy I really like on the Giants: Rashad Jennings. The Eagles have actually been much worse this year against the run than they have been against the pass, and the Giants – finally – have committed to cutting their four-man running back committee down to two guys: Jennings and Shane Vereen, with Jennings grabbing most of the early-down work and Vereen playing on third downs and in the two-minute offense. Over the last three weeks, Jennings has seen touch totals of 24, 17, and 16, and we should be able to expect him to be involved heavily in this one as well.
On the other side of the ball, we have an offense that may slow down the pace a little bit now that Chip Kelly is gone, but considering Kelly was fired on Tuesday, that’s about the extent of the changes the Eagles will be able to make. Otherwise, they’ll be running pretty much the same offense – which leaves the backfield a bit too muddled for us to really feel great about rostering anyone here (though – considering that DeMarco Murray is still under contract for next year and the Eagles would surely like to send him into the offseason on a good note – I could see him having some nice usage here and a solid game, making him a very intriguing tournament option).
The main place we want to look here, however, is in the passing game – and there are three core components who make for interesting options.
The first, of course, is Sam Bradford. Bradford has topped 300 yards in each of the Eagles’ last two games, and he’ll now be closing out the season against a Giants pass defense that is among the worst in the NFL. Bradford will be a free agent once this year concludes, and he’ll be bringing it in this one to finish the season on a good note.
The second guy worth looking at is Jordan Matthews, who has really come on lately – playing much closer to his talent level, and putting up the sort of number we all expected at the start of the season when he was widely viewed as a high-end WR2. This is a great spot for Matthews to finish strong, especially as he will have a great matchup in the slot this week against Trevin Wade.
The third guy worth looking at is none other than Zach Ertz – another preseason favorite who took all season to start getting the snaps and usage we all expected way back in Week 1. Over the last two weeks, Ertz has a total of 30 targets(!), and he is still priced like a five-to-seven target guy. If he gets five to seven targets in this one, you’re paying for him at the place where he should be priced; if he tops ten targets again, you get one of the best bargains on the board. Best of all, the Giants are absolutely atrocious at defending tight ends – making the Ertz play that much better.
Guys I like in cash games and tourneys: Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashad Jennings, Sam Bradford, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz
Guys I like in tourneys only: DeMarco Murray
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ FanDuel Expert Picks (Incentives)
Eli Manning – $7,500
Vegas
Line: NYG -3
Team Total: 27.5
Statistics (Last 3 Weeks)
DYAR (FootballOutsiders): 19 of 32
Matchup
Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
Pass Defense DVOA (Football Outsiders): 13 of 32
Defense vs. Position (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule): 30 of 32
Analysis: If you want to fade Ryan for a lower owned quarterback, Manning is a nice pivot at a similar price point. He looked awful last week against the Vikings, but he will have his best and really only weapon back this week in Odell Beckham Jr. Manning draws a favorable matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. The Giants have an implied team total of 27.5 points and most of their scoring should come through the air.
STLCardinals84’s DraftKings Tournament Picks (Incentives)
Zach Ertz – $3,600 – Ertz is going to be a primary piece of most of my DraftKings lineups this weekend. He has 21 catches over the past two weeks and is coming off a 13-catch, 122-yard performance against the Redskins last Saturday. There is no reason for him to still be priced as low as $3,600 given his current role in the Philadelphia offense. Fire him up as one of the best bargains of the week.
Who do you like from this game? Comment below!