NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 6, Giants at Eagles
This week’s “Matchup of the Week” is a Monday Night Football showdown between the Giants and Eagles. These NFC East foes should both light up the scoreboard and play at a very high tempo, providing a ton of opportunities for fantasy points. Where will those points come from? Our experts break it down from every angle.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
I love writing about football. I love the research, I love the time spent sorting through my thoughts, and I love the composition process. But I’ll be honest: I have been putting off writing about this game for a couple days now. I did not suddenly begin to dislike writing about football; it’s just that there is so much “up in the air” with this game. Primarily: there is so much “up in the air” with the Giants’ passing offense.
I am going to write this article with the assumption that Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. will be playing for the Giants; along with this assumption, however, comes the caveat that this game is on Monday Night Football, which makes it very difficult to trust either receiver.
I will also be writing this article with the assumption that at least one of Rueben Randle or Odell Beckham Jr. will be limited on Monday night. You’ll see in a moment why this is important, but first, let’s talk about the Eagles.
In Week 5, for the first time all season, the Eagles ran over 70 plays (they ran 70 or more plays on 10 occasions last year), and although Sam Bradford continued to look like a backup-caliber quarterback, he also continued to provide merit to the idea that even a backup-caliber quarterback (Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, etc.) can succeed in Chip Kelly’s system.
This week, Bradford will be facing a Giants’ coverage unit that was already ranked 20th according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics (opponent-adjusted), and that just lost Prince Amukamara. With absolutely no pass rush to speak of from the Giants, this shapes up as another excellent game in which to roster Sam Bradford and ride the wave of system-driven success.
The big question, of course – in rostering Sam Bradford – is which pass catcher you should pair him with. Last week, Bradford targeted nine different pass catchers(!), making it difficult to pinpoint one guy who should benefit most from the expected success of the Eagles’ pass game. On the one hand, this lends strength to the notion that you could simply go Bradford naked on your roster(s) and still capture this team’s aerial upside without even grabbing a receiver; if you want to pair Bradford with a receiver, however, Jordan Matthews is the place to go, as he is the only pass catcher on this team seeing reliably consistent targets. Matthews’ 45 targets are most on the team (second-most is Zach Ertz with 26; second-most from a wide receiver is a tie between Riley Cooper and Nelson Agholor at 17 – showing that Matthews is clearly the lead dog among wide receivers), and these targets have been reliably consistent, coming in at totals of 13, nine, eight, eight, and seven. While the effectiveness of these targets has been a bit questionable – making, say, “seven to nine targets” for Matthews a less reliable proposition than “seven to nine targets for Larry Fitzgerald – this does provide us with a high usage floor to rely on. This makes Matthews an especially viable play in cash games, as “floor” should be your first point of concern in cash games – and frankly, Matthews still has the ceiling to be usable in tournaments as well, especially as his disappointing box scores in recent weeks should lower his ownership a bit.
One thing to watch for this week is the injury status of Nelson Agholor. If Josh Huff steps in for Agholor in Week 6, I will still not view Huff as a strong, viable fantasy option (the usage from that role in the offense is too sporadic for me to consider Huff a “positive expected value” play, given his limited talent), but I could see Matthews getting one or two extra looks if Agholor is on the sideline.
I expect there to be some positive attention on DeMarco Murray this week in fantasy circles after he finally broke out with a solid game last week, but it is worth noting that the Eagles have still had one of the worst offensive lines in football this year, and the Giants have one of the best opponent-adjusted run-stopping units in football, and are allowing the fewest yards-per-carry in the NFL. While there is always a chance for DeMarco Murray to pop off for a big game, I see this as the absolute definition of a “negative expected value play” – in other words: If we played this exact slate of games a thousand times, and you rostered Murray every single time, you would lose more money from that play than you would make; remember, if you consistently make +EV plays, you will consistently make money over the long run, and if you consistently make -EV plays, your “good luck” on these plays will run out and you will find yourself losing money. And speaking of -EV plays: Ryan Matthews’ usage is far too spotty for us to be able to justify rostering him, even if he is outplaying Murray on a per-snap basis.
You know who is tied with the Giants for fewest yards-per-carry allowed? The Eagles.
If you didn’t know already, I’ll tell you: Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams are unusable in daily fantasy right now. Facing one of the best run defenses in football doesn’t change that.
One place you could look in the Giants’ backfield, however, is Shane Vereen. I’m still a bit split in my mind at the moment as to whether or not this is a +EV play, as the Giants are not using Vereen as fully as they should. With that said, however, this game sets up perfectly for Vereen to have a big role, as it should be fast-paced and high-scoring, and the Giants should have a difficult time achieving success with traditional running plays. Theoretically, this should lead to the Giants keeping Vereen on the field more and more as the game progresses, and this will inevitably lead to usage. I will not be going out of my way to roster Vereen this week, and I am certainly not recommending him in cash games; in tournaments, however, he makes for a strong option given the upside he has compared to the low ownership we can expect.
The main place where the Giants will be attacking the Eagles, of course, is through the air. Because of all the attention on just how bad Byron Maxwell has been for the Eagles, however, most people are not realizing that the Eagles allow the eighth-fewest yards-per-attempt in the NFL, and that Football Outsiders’ DVOA has the Eagles ranked as the tenth-best pass defense. The Eagles’ secondary has played well outside of Maxwell, and this would have me preaching caution with Odell Beckham Jr. even if he were fully healthy. Furthermore, the Eagles’ ability to stop the pass on a per-attempt basis would have me leaning away from Rueben Randle if we get news before the weekend that Beckham will miss and Randle will be the number one guy.
One pass catcher I do like in this matchup, however, is Dwayne Harris. The slot receiver in the Giants’ offense has seen decent usage all year, with Preston Parker receiving six targets in Weeks 1 and 2, and with Harris seeing at least six targets in each of the last two games. This is not the greatest matchup the Giants will face this year, in terms of “resistance against the pass,” but in terms of “expected game script,” it could not set up much better, as we can A) expect the Eagles to score and force the Giants to have to keep up, and B) expect the Giants to lean on the pass, as they will have a tough time with their efforts on the ground. As such, it is not outside the realm of possibilities that Harris could see eight or nine targets, which will be more than enough for him to pay off his salary. If you roster him and we find out on Monday that OBJ or Randle will be missing that night’s game, Harris’ value rises even more, making him a great bonus on your team.
The final guy I want to examine on the Giants is Eli Manning. Eli has been excellent lately, and he finds himself in what should be a high-scoring affair. This alone makes him a viable option, and the fact that he is likely to go largely overlooked raises him even higher up our list of “quarterbacks to consider.” Because of the difficulties this matchup presents (and the chance that Eli is missing a couple of his most important weapons), I like guys like Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer, and even Sam Bradford a bit more in a strict, point-per-dollar sense. In terms of game theory, however – with the extent to which I expect Eli to go under-owned – he makes for a very strong tournament option for your Week 6 teams.
Guys I like in cash games and tourneys: Sam Bradford, Jordan Matthews, Dwayne Harris
Guys I like in tourneys: Shane Vereen, Eli Manning
LeoTPP’s Grind Down
The Odds
Odds will vary based on the day, and which sportsbook you check, but as of the writing of this article, the over/under for this game is set at 49 points, with a four-point spread favoring the Eagles. This implies a 27-23 type of final score with Philadelphia coming out on top, but as always, it’s important to remember that higher totals correlate strongly with fantasy performance. Our RotoAcademy lesson on Vegas lines in daily fantasy football includes research that shows just how much of a difference there is between fantasy point scoring in games with totals over 50 or under 50, and with this game being available with a total of 50 at some sportsbooks, we can look to it for increased production from all players on both offenses.
Matchups by the Numbers
Pace is an element of fantasy football that often goes unnoticed, but as JMToWin mentions above, the Eagles are a team that play fast and get a bunch of snaps in on offense. The Giants are one of the quicker offenses in the NFL, as well, and this game is the only one this weekend to feature two teams in the top five in seconds per play. This boosts every matchup, as an offense running 60 or 70 plays is due for 5-10 more handoffs and completions than an offense running 50.
So with that in mind, how do these matchups stack up? Both teams are tough against the run, ranking in the top five in Football Outsiders DVOA against opposing rushing attacks. That doesn’t translate to fantasy points allowed for the Giants, however, as New York has allowed 321 receiving yards and two touchdowns through the air to running backs so far this season. This all adds up to a team that has allowed the 13th-most points per game to backs over the first five weeks of the season. The Eagles on the other hand, back up their strong Football Outsiders ranking by sitting 30th in points allowed per game to opposing backs. No running back has crossed the goal line or eclipsed 100 yards against Philly yet this year, and Bilal Powell seven catches for 44 yards is the most impressive receiving day against them this year. Powell, along with Devonta Freeman, Lance Dunbar, Chris Thompson and C.J. Spiller, represent some of the best receiving backs in the NFL, and the Eagles held them all in check.
The points in this one have to come from somewhere, and based on the first five weeks of the season, we should expect them to come via the passing game for either team. While the Eagles rank tenth in DVOA against the pass, and rank 20th in points allowed to quarterbacks due to their opportunistic playmaking, they rank third in points allowed to receivers. And the Giants are subpar in Football Outsiders’ rankings, have lost some talent in their defensive backfield, and rank as one of the ten easiest teams to score against for fantasy passers and tight ends. And when you dig a bit deeper, you can see a path to success for the starting quarterbacks in this one. Despite all of their solid numbers per-attempt and using advanced metrics, the Eagles have still allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the NFL. They run at such a fast tempo, and have had such a hot-and-cold offense, that they’re constantly giving the ball back to their opponents so they can throw some more. They force turnovers, so quarterbacks are risky to use against them, but receivers and tight ends will be running tons of routes and seeing more targets than usual. On the other side of the ball, the Giants have allowed the most passing yards so far this season, and have actually had more passes thrown at their defense than even the Eagles. Again, a high tempo, an inconsistent offense, and a stout run defense that leads teams to abandon the rushing attack in favor of passes contribute to a high volume of passing attempts and opportunities for points from passers and catchers.
Players to Target
On the Philadelphia offense, we’re looking at a familiar battery of Sam Bradford and Jordan Matthews. As JM mentions above, no receiver sees the kind of volume in this offense that Matthews does, and while he’s been inconsistent and Bradford isn’t the best of passers, the combo connects often enough and has enough upside to merit consideration in DFS. However, with a tough New York run defense, we may be restricted to just those two players, although DeMarco Murray is heavily involved in the passing game and could see some targets against a defense that, as mentioned above, has struggled at times defending backs out of the backfield. If the red zone targets were there for Zach Ertz, he’d be a smart play as well, but Brent Celek has been vulturing away his looks near the end zone, and that leaves the Philly tight ends out of the conversation despite a positive matchup.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants will get things done with their quarterback and top receiver, as well. Assuming Odell Beckham Jr. shows promising signs between now and Sunday morning, he’s a top play thanks to the probability of 12-15 targets, or more, against a defense that may intercept some passes, but that also allows plenty of yards to wideouts. Rueben Randle needs some encouraging injury news, as well, but he’s also in play thanks to the volume boost, and Dwayne Harris and Larry Donnell are both cheaper ways to get exposure to this high-scoring affair. And while the Eagles have been tough against receiving backs this year, Shane Vereen could still be an option on PPR sites thanks to his involvement as a receiver on an offense lacking in healthy options out wide. Don’t expect 100 yards from scrimmage, but seven catches for 50 yards is a nice 12-point return that becomes a very nice score with a touchdown.
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ Cash Game Play of the Week
Top-rated grinder Notorious picks out the player you need to roster to build a solid foundation for your head-to-head and double-up lineups.
Chip Kelly’s offense is finally starting to show some signs of life, thanks to the play of Sam Bradford. Over the last two games, he has a combined 603 passing yards and five touchdowns. Many have taken the first few weeks as a sign that the Eagles can’t be trusted in cash games, but I see this as an opportunity to buy low on a high-scoring offense. The Eagles draw a favorable matchup against the Giants, who according to Football Outsiders, have the second best run defense and the 20th best pass defense. Look for a pass-heavy attack from the Eagles, which bodes very well for Bradford and his wideouts. The Eagles have the third highest team total of the week, yet Bradford is the 12th most expensive quarterback on FanDuel.
STLCardinals84’s GPP Play of the Week
STLCardinals84 is a leading tournament player who can provide you with the high-upside plays you need to take down a big GPP.
The Eagles defense has been playing better of late, but they are still a team we can exploit from a fantasy perspective because their games feature so many more plays. Eli Manning has been quietly exceptional so far in 2015, and he is coming off a dominating 400-yard performance against the 49ers. Odell Beckham is obviously the top target on this team, but he is currently slowed by a hamstring injury and has yet to practice this week. This could open up a world of opportunity for Rueben Randle on Monday night, and he is a fine tournament option that won’t cost you a pretty penny, either.