NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 9, Raiders at Steelers
This week’s “Matchup of the Week” is a Sunday afternoon showdown between the Raiders and the Steelers. A rising star and a returning veteran line up under center for two of the league’s best offenses, but which players will help you win in daily fantasy football? Our experts break down the game from every angle.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
Boy oh boy – do we have a good one for you!
Of games this weekend that are not expected to be blowouts, this game has the third-highest over/under, and I would not be surprised if this ends up being the highest-scoring contest of Week 9.
Here’s why:
1) A pair of good run defenses. That means extra passes (which also means extra plays) for each team.
2) A pair of good pass offenses.
3) A pair of mediocre pass defenses. Good pass offenses versus mediocre pass defenses means points scored quickly… which means more points scored… which means more points scored… which means… (you get the picture).
Let’s start with everyone’s favorite new toy: DeAngelo Williams.
There are two things everyone seems to be assuming here. Firstly, they seem to be assuming that DeAngelo will see a ton of touches in this game; secondly, they seem to be assuming that DeAngelo will be wildly successful with these touches. I’m fairly certain that first assumption will be correct, as DeAngelo should easily top 20 touches in this game. While he will certainly have pass game involvement, however, most people seem to be overlooking the fact that the Raiders are allowing 3.6 yards per carry (the third-best mark in the NFL), and are the number five-rated run defense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
The interesting thing about DeAngelo Williams here is that FanDuel and DraftKings both bumped up his price when setting things for Week 9. This means that you are actually paying a “solid running back in a pretty good matchup” price this week… for what is actually a “pretty good running back in a bad matchup.” In other words: I genuinely think Williams is overpriced this week – especially on a week with so much value available across the board. I don’t dislike him at all, but I do think you can do better.
Of course, the general offensive preference for the Steelers is to pass anyway. And this game sets up great for them to be able to do exactly that. While the narrative that the Raiders have an “awful secondary” is entirely overblown, they do have a very middle-of-the-road secondary, and that is more than enough reason to like Ben Roethlisberger quite a bit. Although the Roethlisberger stack with Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant will be popular (and although one of our best paths to tournament success is “finding high-upside guys at low ownership”), I don’t see any of these guys as a “fade” in Week 9. I fully expect all three guys to outperform their salary expectations, which makes all three of them great plays in cash games and tourneys.
The final guy we need to look at on the Steelers’ side of the ball is Heath Miller. There is a lot of attention on Heath Miller due to the idea that the “Raiders are awful against tight ends,” but I would ask you to challenge that line of thinking and determine whether you have actual evidence that this is the case, or are instead just following the narrative that says this is the case. The Raiders are 16th vs the tight end in Football Outsiders’ DVOA; what’s more, their issues covering tight ends had largely to do with Curtis Lofton playing man coverage (and getting consistently burned). The Raiders switched Neiron Ball onto the tight end around Week 5, and although Ball is now injured and expected to miss about a month, I have a hard time seeing the Raiders just saying, “Okay, let’s put Lofton right back on the tight end.” I don’t think Miller is a bad play, but this seems like Owen Daniels against the Raiders all over again; I would much rather go with Austin Seferian-Jenkins if he’s healthy (he’s a much better athlete, he’s in a much better matchup, and he should see far more targets than Miller, with the Bucs missing Vincent Jackson), and I would rather pay up for Antonio Gates over Miller as well, as Gates is going to be a far more integral part of the Chargers’ offense than Miller will be for the Steelers. (Take that as one voice telling you to do this; balance this with the voices telling you to play Miller, and make your own decision! Heck, I may even end up on Miller myself when it’s all said and done – especially if ASJ is out. I just think some caution needs to be preached here.)
As for the Raiders:
Derek Carr currently grades out as one of the top seven quarterbacks in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, and he is still priced like a borderline backup who “might get lucky with a good game.” There is a ton of value in this Derek Carr play, as the Steelers – like the Raiders – have a thoroughly mediocre secondary (not as bad as the narrative says they have, but certainly bad enough that Carr can be fully effective).
While the Steelers are not quite as good against the run as the Raiders, they are still very solid (3.8 yards per carry allowed; sixth vs the run in DVOA), and I do not expect the Raiders to be able to do much in the way of “establishing the run.” Outside of the possibility of a long touchdown, I have a hard time seeing Latavius Murray putting up the type of numbers that would make you regret fading him.
Ultimately, this will mean the Raiders will have to turn to the air, and you know what this means… right?
Well, honestly, it might not mean what you think!
Michael Crabtree is averaging around 1.5 more targets per game than Amari Cooper, and he has six more red zone targets than Cooper on the season (six to zero, to be exact). Now, I like each guy plenty. Cooper has more big-play upside, and certainly has the ability to torch this defense for a couple long touchdowns; he could absolutely post a monster fantasy day on Sunday. But given the discrepancy in price between these two guys – and the higher (and more valuable) usage Crabtree is receiving – he is an even stronger play than Cooper this week!
Ultimately, with the Raiders expected to pass plenty in this one, and with Cooper and Crabtree really being the full extent of the Raiders’ pass game weapons, I like each guy a ton, and would not even mind an “all-out play” of Carr, Crabtree, and Cooper. This is a great spot for the entire Raiders’ passing offense, and I expect big things to come from them in this game.
Players I like in cash games and tourneys: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Heath Miller (with the caveat that I may like other tight ends more…), Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper.
Players I like in tourneys only: None
LeoTPP’s Grind Down
The Odds
Odds will vary based on the day, and which sportsbook you check, but as of the writing of this article, the over/under for this game is set at 48 points with a 4.5-point spread favoring the Steelers. This implies a score of 26-22 favoring the Steelers, meaning there should be several touchdowns scored in this contest. There are games with bigger overall totals this weekend, and even one with a bigger total and tighter spread (Chicago at San Diego), but any game with a total approaching 50 and a relatively close margin of expected victory should capture our attention as DFS players.
Matchups by the Numbers
Passing Game: Both quarterbacks in this game rank in the top ten in the NFL in virtually every version of yards per attempt available on Pro Football Reference. No matter how you adjust it or what other stats you include, these are two of the most efficient passers in the NFL. That sets up well in a game where two middle-of-the-road defenses line up on the other side of the ball.
Oakland has allowed every quarterback not named Peyton Manning (a weird exception, but one we’ll have to get used to) to throw for two touchdowns against them this season, a list that includes Josh McCown and Geno Smith. But more importantly, no team faces more pass attempts per game than the Raiders, who have the second-most passes thrown against them in the NFL this season despite playing only seven games (the Giants have faced more throws, but have yet to have their bye). Teams throw often against the Raiders, and regularly find the end zone. That sets up very well for the Steelers. And while the advanced metrics don’t completely agree on where the Raiders stand against the pass, numberFire’s team rankings have the Raiders ranked 29th at defending opposing passing attacks. This all adds up to a great matchup for the Steelers.
On the other side, the Steelers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in only three games this season, and have given up just eight scores to opposing quarterbacks in the seven games since Tom Brady and company dropped four on them in Week 1. As JMToWin mentions above, anyone telling you that Carr is a lock because the Steelers are “terrible” against the pass hasn’t been paying attention this season. But five of eight quarterbacks to face the Steelers this season have gone over 250 yards passing, and only one, Nick Foles, has been kept out of the end zone entirely. A floor of 250 yards and a touchdown with upside for more (as we saw from Brady, and from Philip Rivers when the Chargers faced this defense) is a pretty solid matchup.
So who do we target in the pass catching positions if both quarterbacks are in fairly decent spots to succeed? According to Pro Football Focus, the weakest defender in the Oakland secondary is slot corner D.J. Hayden, who will spend most of his time lined up against Markus Wheaton. The outside corners are both a bit more respectable, and will face off against the preferred Steeler passing game weapons. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders have the eighth-best pass defense against opposing team’s top receivers, and are ranked 14th against second receivers. Running backs and tertiary wide receivers are the biggest threats to exceed expectation against this defense, as we saw when Brian Hartline grabbed 96 receiving yards against them in Week 3, or when Eddie Royal scored a healthy amount of fantasy points in Week 4. Tight ends have had huge games against the Raiders this season, as players at the position have scored eight times this year against Oakland.
On the other side of the ball, Michael Crabtree will spend more of his time against Pittsburgh’s top-graded corner (per PFF), while Amari Cooper and slot receiver Seth Roberts (and the other reserve corners who rotate in and out of the game) will see more favorable matchups at a slightly higher rate than Crabtree. But the Oakland receivers and Pittsburgh defensive backs move all around the formation, and Ross Cockrell isn’t Darrelle Revis, so this is hardly a prohibitive matchup.
Running Game: As JMToWin notes above, neither team in this game should be targeted with running backs in daily fantasy football. The Steelers rank first in numberFire’s run defense rankings, and sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Raiders are tenth and fifth, respectively.
And while you may see defense versus position data that says the Raiders are a middle of the road run defense, consider that Danny Woodhead garbage time 11-reception, 75-yard, two-touchdown performance from a couple of weeks ago counts against the Oakland defense in that department. Outside of Woodhead, backs have scored three times in seven games against the Raiders, with none finding the end zone on the ground since Week 2. Only one back, Matt Forte, has gone over 70 rushing yards against Oakland this season.
The Steelers have allowed only one touchdown to running backs this season, and have given up over 70 rushing yards only twice in eight games. Justin Forsett and Charcandrick West both had nice games against Pittsburgh, so it’s not out of the question to consider a decent rushing performance from the Raiders. There’s just not a ton of evidence out there to support that hypothesis.
Players to Target
On the Oakland offense, the efficient Derek Carr should be expected to score twice and pick up a healthy amount of yards at a cheap price around the industry. He may not have a huge ceiling against a decent Pittsburgh secondary, but he should produce enough to give a healthy return on a modest salary investment. The running game should be considered in only cheap tournaments for players entering several lineups, as the Steelers are generally very good against the ground game. And as for the receivers, I tend to agree with JMToWin that Crabtree’s volume and role in the offense should set him up for success, but Amari Cooper should have a great matchup against lesser cornerbacks and has big-play potential that Crabtree lacks as a more technical, possession-oriented receiver. Both are fine options in any format.
On the Pittsburgh side of things, Roethlisberger is obviously in play, and Antonio Brown is never a bad choice. Martavis Bryant is seeing more targets this year than he did last year, and that makes him much more appealing for daily fantasy purposes. Use either wideout on their own, or in a stack with Big Ben as you see fit. Heath Miller is a very solid option thanks to his connection with his quarterback and his increased role as a safety valve in an offense now lacking an elite receiver out of the backfield in Le’Veon Bell. Bell’s absence opens up a huge role for DeAngelo Williams to fill, but in this difficult matchup, I’ll pass on him as his popularity in tournament contests should far exceed his production.
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ Top Plays of the Week
Top-ranked grinder Notorious picks out the player you need to roster to build a solid foundation for your head-to-head and double-up lineups, and a high-upside player you should target for GPP contests.
Cash Game Play: Antonio Brown
With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, Brown immediately steps right back in as one of the top fantasy wide receivers in the NFL. He didn’t have the biggest outing last week against the Bengals, but he caught six of his 11 targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. With Roethlisberger under center and Le’Veon Bell out for the season, we can safely project Brown to see 10+ targets basically every week. He has just as much upside as Julio Jones or Odell Beckham, yet he is considerably cheaper than both. Brown sees a variety of short and deep routes, which gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling this week against the Raiders.
Tournament Play: Amari Cooper
The roles have switched for the Raiders’ wide receivers in fantasy land. Michael Crabtree flew under the radar for the first six or seven weeks of the season, but after another nice game, he is now getting all of the attention from the fantasy industry. With a price of only $5,800 on FanDuel, he will be one of the most popular receiving targets on the board this week. A nice way to differentiate your lineups is to pay an extra $1,500 for Cooper, who is still the number one wideout in this offense. The Steelers have a beatable secondary and Cooper is one of the few players in his price range that has two-touchdown type of upside. Game flow also projects to be in his favor, as the Raiders are 4.5-point underdogs on the road.