PGA Weekly Course Analysis: Quicken Loans Invitational
Each week, Sean O’Donnell will break down the course in detail to figure out which golfers will be in the best position to succeed.
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Quicken Loans Invitational
Welcome this week to our nation’s capital! We’ve got really one of the “lamest” tournaments of the year this week but that’s what makes DFS even better some times! I know many of us wouldn’t pay much attention this week- except we have something to make it interesting! And DraftKings is keeping some momentum with some big contests, which we haven’t seen in a few years!
This is our second year at this course, it’s a tough one for a weak field, scoring will be muted, and we’ve got a lot of sloppy golfers to pick from! In reality, I believe that these are some of the best DFS events, as a big edge goes to the spreadsheet users and researchers. On the other hand there may be less casual fans playing, so no free lunch, we gotta dig in and have a little bit less fear and come a little bit more prepared than everyone else this week … let’s take a look!
TPC Potomac:
Par: 70
Length: 7107
Scoring average per round: +1.1
Chances of bogey free round (field): 1.2%
Best opportunities for 3-birdie streak (field): 12-13-14-15
Best chances for eagle: #14
Projected Cut: +2
Key Holes: 4, 6, 10, 11, 14
Here’s a visual representation of the eagle/better(dark blue), birdie(light blue), par(gray), bogey(orange), and double bogey/worse (red) percentages for each of the 18 holes:
And a quick refresher on the stats we use each week in grading our course:
Statistic | Description |
Total Driving | Combines Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance |
Driving Accuracy | Measures average number of fairways hit off tee shots |
Driving Distance | Measures average total yardage of drives |
Approaches from * yards | Measures average to-hole accuracy from fairways or tee shots on par 3s, from varying distances |
Approaches from * yards (RTP) | The average relative-to-par score for holes completed from a given range of approach distances |
Scrambling | The % of times that a player saved par or better after a missed green |
Just a reminder that I combine the Proximity and the Relative to Par statistics for each approach yardage in an effort to incorporate the putting skill that is inherently included in the RTP statistic.
These are the approach yardage bins we’re going to use to set our course fit defaults in the spreadsheet:
Driving Distance: 14
Driving Accuracy: 14
Approaches <125: 6
Approaches 125-150: 2
Approaches 150-175: 3
Approaches 175-200: 5
Approaches >200: 4
Scrambling: 5
Name | FDraft$ | FD$ | DK$ | Dr. Distance | Dr. Accuracy | u125 | 125-150 | 150-175 | 175-200 | o200 | Scrambling | GIR | BoB% | SG: T2G | SG: Putt | Weighted | Rank | RankOverSal DK | RankOverSal FD | RankOverSalFDraft |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rickie Fowler | $18,800 | $12,600 | $11,700 | 89 | 50 | 114 | 19 | 51 | 16 | 23 | 9 | 25 | 25 | 29 | 63 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kyle Stanley | $16,000 | $10,100 | $10,200 | 116 | 5 | 104 | 69 | 16 | 31 | 35 | 159 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 61 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
Byeong Hun An | $15,100 | $10,800 | $8,600 | 24 | 85 | 47 | 73 | 46 | 74 | 35 | 65 | 72 | 72 | 18 | 126 | 62 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 9 |
Gary Woodland | $14,700 | $10,200 | $8,100 | 6 | 79 | 150 | 40 | 140 | 59 | 7 | 184 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 82 | 64 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 14 |
Kevin Streelman | $14,800 | $8,700 | $8,700 | 104 | 17 | 95 | 150 | 37 | 84 | 117 | 40 | 14 | 14 | 30 | 174 | 70 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 10 |
Chesson Hadley | $14,500 | $9,900 | $8,400 | 62 | 131 | 52 | 33 | 119 | 19 | 29 | 121 | 40 | 40 | 30 | 28 | 70 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
Charles Howell III | $15,700 | $11,400 | $8,900 | 59 | 114 | 25 | 98 | 52 | 142 | 154 | 21 | 30 | 30 | 40 | 81 | 74 | 7 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Martin Laird | $13,800 | $9,200 | $7,800 | 61 | 78 | 52 | 115 | 87 | 76 | 76 | 64 | 107 | 107 | 73 | 43 | 76 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 20 |
Tiger Woods | $17,400 | $12,300 | $11,000 | 26 | 184 | 17 | 45 | 104 | 61 | 32 | 19 | 102 | 102 | 5 | 89 | 76 | 9 | -6 | -7 | -7 |
Kevin Na | $15,400 | $9,500 | $9,400 | 174 | 60 | 9 | 59 | 4 | 32 | 12 | 9 | 115 | 115 | 45 | 86 | 77 | 10 | -2 | 8 | 0 |
Marc Leishman | $16,600 | $11,200 | $11,200 | 74 | 132 | 114 | 25 | 17 | 55 | 53 | 58 | 75 | 75 | 47 | 60 | 80 | 11 | -9 | -6 | -8 |
Francesco Molinari | $16,100 | $10,700 | $10,600 | 62 | 79 | 72 | 110 | 144 | 30 | 107 | 111 | 58 | 58 | 14 | 188 | 81 | 12 | -8 | -4 | -8 |
Corey Conners | $12,200 | $8,900 | $7,100 | 34 | 108 | 22 | 78 | 133 | 159 | 72 | 113 | 30 | 30 | 59 | 178 | 81 | 13 | 37 | 16 | 45 |
Andrew Putnam | $14,200 | $9,800 | $7,900 | 95 | 122 | 27 | 178 | 70 | 33 | 198 | 81 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 77 | 82 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
Sam Ryder | $12,100 | $7,900 | $7,100 | 89 | 31 | 64 | 46 | 66 | 170 | 99 | 173 | 8 | 8 | 90 | 185 | 82 | 15 | 35 | 40 | 48 |
Adam Hadwin | $13,700 | $9,700 | $7,300 | 147 | 40 | 104 | 114 | 83 | 36 | 68 | 122 | 45 | 45 | 54 | 83 | 82 | 16 | 23 | -1 | 13 |
Matt Jones | $12,900 | $8,500 | $7,600 | 28 | 128 | 55 | 43 | 112 | 77 | 146 | 57 | 68 | 68 | 63 | 165 | 83 | 17 | 12 | 20 | 19 |
Beau Hossler | $15,500 | $10,400 | $9,300 | 52 | 102 | 94 | 68 | 189 | 142 | 139 | 51 | 55 | 55 | 112 | 17 | 85 | 18 | -9 | -9 | -9 |
Bronson Burgoon | $11,400 | $7,400 | $6,400 | 46 | 35 | 183 | 110 | 152 | 118 | 23 | 184 | 49 | 49 | 105 | 127 | 85 | 19 | 82 | 62 | 66 |
J.T. Poston | $12,900 | $9,000 | $7,700 | 54 | 97 | 179 | 75 | 100 | 5 | 97 | 113 | 52 | 52 | 76 | 143 | 86 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 16 |
Jamie Lovemark | $14,800 | $9,400 | $8,300 | 45 | 143 | 83 | 146 | 58 | 123 | 64 | 50 | 94 | 94 | 42 | 82 | 87 | 21 | -4 | -1 | -6 |
C.T. Pan | $13,700 | $8,500 | $7,300 | 132 | 25 | 68 | 127 | 95 | 138 | 100 | 157 | 15 | 15 | 89 | 138 | 87 | 22 | 17 | 15 | 7 |
James Hahn | $12,800 | $8,500 | $7,200 | 83 | 102 | 132 | 57 | 47 | 84 | 112 | 68 | 57 | 57 | 58 | 124 | 87 | 23 | 22 | 14 | 17 |
J.J. Spaun | $12,400 | $7,800 | $7,000 | 72 | 77 | 144 | 66 | 105 | 159 | 34 | 152 | 24 | 23 | 56 | 159 | 88 | 24 | 33 | 40 | 25 |
Billy Horschel | $14,800 | $9,600 | $7,900 | 91 | 41 | 56 | 163 | 187 | 170 | 111 | 185 | 60 | 60 | 99 | 37 | 91 | 25 | -3 | -9 | -10 |
Brian Gay | $14,100 | $9,100 | $7,400 | 190 | 16 | 26 | 142 | 49 | 131 | 70 | 20 | 149 | 149 | 106 | 30 | 92 | 26 | 9 | 0 | -1 |
Nick Watney | $13,100 | $8,700 | $7,500 | 19 | 178 | 101 | 52 | 171 | 65 | 49 | 142 | 77 | 77 | 91 | 62 | 93 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Rory Sabbatini | $12,900 | $8,800 | $7,400 | 129 | 75 | 128 | 92 | 125 | 73 | 95 | 50 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 102 | 93 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
Ryan Armour | $12,600 | $8,100 | $7,500 | 194 | 2 | 17 | 116 | 29 | 181 | 183 | 88 | 50 | 50 | 61 | 157 | 94 | 29 | 3 | 22 | 14 |
J.B. Holmes | $15,900 | $10,900 | $10,000 | 26 | 155 | 69 | 60 | 73 | 142 | 62 | 118 | 115 | 114 | 30 | 145 | 94 | 30 | -24 | -24 | -24 |
Cameron Percy | $10,100 | $7,500 | $6,500 | 121 | 41 | 92 | 110 | 87 | 128 | 71 | 136 | 63 | 63 | 104 | 170 | 95 | 31 | 62 | 47 | 76 |
Stewart Cink | $14,900 | $9,400 | $8,500 | 73 | 159 | 96 | 49 | 120 | 72 | 31 | 177 | 31 | 31 | 46 | 150 | 95 | 32 | -17 | -12 | -18 |
Jimmy Walker | $15,600 | $11,800 | $9,600 | 65 | 176 | 126 | 34 | 33 | 8 | 41 | 95 | 142 | 142 | 63 | 44 | 95 | 33 | -26 | -30 | -25 |
Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $15,300 | $10,300 | $9,200 | 123 | 54 | 57 | 128 | 82 | 95 | 51 | 118 | 166 | 166 | 116 | 21 | 95 | 34 | -24 | -24 | -23 |
Brandon Harkins | $11,900 | $7,900 | $6,700 | 37 | 191 | 68 | 120 | 38 | 111 | 25 | 159 | 97 | 97 | 100 | 57 | 98 | 35 | 44 | 20 | 33 |
John Huh | $12,200 | $8,500 | $7,100 | 166 | 42 | 57 | 45 | 71 | 140 | 141 | 111 | 94 | 94 | 104 | 67 | 98 | 36 | 14 | 1 | 22 |
Kevin Tway | $14,300 | $9,300 | $8,000 | 12 | 194 | 63 | 59 | 151 | 84 | 84 | 136 | 93 | 93 | 72 | 121 | 98 | 37 | -17 | -15 | -14 |
Jason Kokrak | $12,400 | $7,700 | $6,900 | 16 | 154 | 178 | 189 | 170 | 87 | 35 | 155 | 48 | 48 | 78 | 129 | 99 | 38 | 25 | 29 | 11 |
Keith Mitchell | $13,200 | $9,200 | $7,700 | 9 | 140 | 185 | 65 | 161 | 165 | 34 | 134 | 56 | 56 | 80 | 189 | 101 | 39 | -12 | -15 | -7 |
Joel Dahmen | $12,200 | $8,300 | $7,300 | 106 | 36 | 160 | 84 | 141 | 195 | 157 | 43 | 72 | 72 | 93 | 161 | 101 | 40 | -1 | 4 | 18 |
Tyler Duncan | $12,300 | $7,900 | $6,700 | 111 | 42 | 87 | 53 | 187 | 129 | 147 | 180 | 57 | 57 | 69 | 195 | 101 | 41 | 38 | 14 | 13 |
Alex Cejka | $12,000 | $7,400 | $7,100 | 180 | 31 | 88 | 96 | 99 | 69 | 118 | 15 | 140 | 140 | 95 | 122 | 101 | 42 | 8 | 39 | 23 |
Patrick Rodgers | $15,000 | $9,300 | $8,800 | 35 | 122 | 146 | 167 | 165 | 138 | 50 | 108 | 112 | 112 | 155 | 30 | 101 | 43 | -31 | -21 | -30 |
Michael Thompson | $11,700 | $8,500 | $6,800 | 102 | 77 | 153 | 177 | 139 | 56 | 189 | 163 | 50 | 49 | 171 | 16 | 102 | 44 | 27 | -7 | 29 |
Ollie Schniederjans | $12,900 | $9,100 | $7,400 | 62 | 187 | 58 | 48 | 38 | 79 | 85 | 94 | 148 | 148 | 75 | 80 | 102 | 45 | -10 | -19 | -9 |
Ryan Palmer | $12,600 | $8,900 | $7,500 | 18 | 126 | 77 | 19 | 152 | 149 | 79 | 143 | 137 | 137 | 91 | 191 | 103 | 46 | -14 | -17 | -3 |
Shawn Stefani | $11,500 | $7,600 | $6,800 | 66 | 170 | 104 | 159 | 82 | 23 | 67 | 85 | 112 | 111 | 117 | 108 | 103 | 47 | 24 | 26 | 37 |
Tom Hoge | $12,300 | $7,900 | $7,200 | 153 | 106 | 79 | 42 | 106 | 32 | 29 | 37 | 144 | 144 | 83 | 147 | 103 | 48 | -3 | 7 | 6 |
Nicholas Lindheim | $11,800 | $7,700 | $6,600 | 108 | 130 | 37 | 113 | 40 | 56 | 203 | 188 | 65 | 65 | 171 | 27 | 103 | 49 | 39 | 18 | 22 |
Ben Crane | $12,400 | $8,600 | $6,700 | 197 | 19 | 39 | 69 | 120 | 173 | 177 | 45 | 117 | 117 | 142 | 44 | 104 | 50 | 29 | -15 | -1 |
Ben Martin | $12,400 | $7,600 | $7,200 | 149 | 70 | 39 | 81 | 79 | 96 | 166 | 98 | 128 | 128 | 123 | 90 | 105 | 51 | -6 | 22 | -2 |
Johnson Wagner | $12,600 | $8,300 | $7,100 | 181 | 73 | 125 | 165 | 173 | 71 | 81 | 26 | 96 | 95 | 138 | 16 | 105 | 52 | -2 | -8 | -9 |
J.J. Henry | $10,900 | $7,100 | $6,400 | 140 | 48 | 93 | 150 | 146 | 160 | 94 | 159 | 37 | 37 | 87 | 198 | 105 | 53 | 48 | 40 | 45 |
Troy Merritt | $12,500 | $8,200 | $7,300 | 92 | 90 | 15 | 167 | 128 | 178 | 149 | 116 | 133 | 133 | 126 | 76 | 106 | 54 | -15 | -6 | -6 |
Robert Garrigus | $12,000 | $7,700 | $6,700 | 21 | 164 | 153 | 54 | 107 | 10 | 157 | 175 | 105 | 105 | 59 | 197 | 107 | 55 | 24 | 12 | 10 |
Andrew Landry | $12,200 | $7,400 | $6,900 | 127 | 101 | 33 | 151 | 153 | 65 | 120 | 106 | 114 | 114 | 119 | 124 | 107 | 56 | 7 | 25 | 2 |
Trey Mullinax | $13,000 | $8,200 | $7,400 | 3 | 187 | 101 | 70 | 184 | 138 | 116 | 149 | 108 | 108 | 125 | 63 | 107 | 57 | -22 | -9 | -23 |
Richy Werenski | $12,700 | $8,800 | $7,200 | 133 | 49 | 149 | 33 | 139 | 125 | 144 | 99 | 96 | 94 | 123 | 142 | 108 | 58 | -13 | -27 | -16 |
Brian Stuard | $11,000 | $7,800 | $6,500 | 202 | 5 | 132 | 75 | 39 | 156 | 128 | 106 | 99 | 99 | 135 | 103 | 108 | 59 | 34 | 5 | 38 |
Sam Saunders | $12,400 | $7,900 | $7,000 | 47 | 122 | 184 | 95 | 141 | 150 | 38 | 160 | 123 | 123 | 89 | 101 | 108 | 60 | -3 | -5 | -11 |
Scott Stallings | $12,300 | $7,900 | $6,800 | 69 | 172 | 50 | 145 | 83 | 134 | 132 | 49 | 128 | 128 | 79 | 131 | 109 | 61 | 10 | -6 | -7 |
Abraham Ancer | $11,700 | $8,400 | $6,600 | 114 | 103 | 59 | 89 | 178 | 100 | 119 | 45 | 144 | 144 | 118 | 131 | 109 | 62 | 26 | -20 | 11 |
Anirban Lahiri | $13,900 | $8,200 | $7,800 | 107 | 114 | 146 | 177 | 47 | 92 | 73 | 117 | 118 | 117 | 117 | 111 | 110 | 63 | -39 | -15 | -36 |
Denny McCarthy | $12,800 | $8,300 | $7,200 | 120 | 90 | 206 | 101 | 184 | 115 | 90 | 94 | 86 | 84 | 171 | 18 | 111 | 64 | -19 | -20 | -24 |
Blayne Barber | $11,700 | $7,400 | $6,900 | 117 | 72 | 178 | 16 | 85 | 150 | 161 | 169 | 48 | 48 | 154 | 129 | 111 | 65 | -2 | 16 | 8 |
Adam Schenk | $10,900 | $7,000 | $6,500 | 30 | 129 | 155 | 145 | 165 | 174 | 169 | 151 | 75 | 74 | 148 | 81 | 111 | 66 | 27 | 31 | 32 |
Seamus Power | $12,600 | $8,000 | $6,900 | 38 | 190 | 135 | 183 | 149 | 118 | 70 | 23 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 17 | 111 | 67 | -4 | -14 | -24 |
Zac Blair | $11,900 | $7,800 | $7,100 | 202 | 64 | 43 | 111 | 90 | 105 | 190 | 46 | 131 | 131 | 109 | 72 | 112 | 68 | -18 | -4 | 0 |
David Hearn | $11,300 | $7,700 | $6,700 | 186 | 19 | 76 | 145 | 171 | 91 | 94 | 144 | 104 | 104 | 152 | 156 | 112 | 69 | 10 | -2 | 19 |
Chad Campbell | $11,700 | $7,700 | $6,600 | 179 | 34 | 77 | 63 | 120 | 177 | 163 | 59 | 97 | 97 | 120 | 189 | 112 | 70 | 18 | -3 | 3 |
Talor Gooch | $11,400 | $7,000 | $6,400 | 56 | 155 | 212 | 67 | 109 | 37 | 82 | 50 | 161 | 161 | 137 | 115 | 113 | 71 | 30 | 26 | 14 |
Tom Lovelady | $11,700 | $7,600 | $6,900 | 6 | 188 | 149 | 83 | 195 | 110 | 63 | 200 | 90 | 90 | 126 | 142 | 114 | 72 | -9 | 1 | 1 |
Nick Taylor | $11,700 | $7,600 | $6,600 | 114 | 108 | 131 | 168 | 114 | 120 | 142 | 62 | 89 | 89 | 115 | 182 | 115 | 73 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Harris English | $12,600 | $8,000 | $7,000 | 43 | 151 | 179 | 82 | 140 | 121 | 105 | 95 | 163 | 162 | 159 | 34 | 115 | 74 | -17 | -21 | -31 |
Kelly Kraft | $11,700 | $7,600 | $7,000 | 149 | 70 | 140 | 113 | 41 | 94 | 178 | 100 | 140 | 140 | 170 | 69 | 116 | 75 | -18 | -2 | -2 |
Ryan Blaum | $13,300 | $8,400 | $7,600 | 164 | 46 | 44 | 100 | 162 | 175 | 177 | 154 | 116 | 116 | 121 | 125 | 117 | 76 | -47 | -34 | -45 |
Danny Lee | $14,400 | $8,600 | $8,000 | 164 | 89 | 115 | 99 | 57 | 104 | 68 | 147 | 137 | 137 | 148 | 81 | 117 | 77 | -57 | -42 | -55 |
Ben Silverman | $11,600 | $7,500 | $6,600 | 161 | 63 | 120 | 14 | 154 | 140 | 107 | 139 | 149 | 149 | 162 | 58 | 119 | 78 | 10 | 0 | 4 |
Tyrone Van Aswegen | $11,700 | $7,900 | $7,000 | 141 | 152 | 78 | 102 | 35 | 60 | 171 | 86 | 122 | 122 | 131 | 123 | 119 | 79 | -22 | -24 | -6 |
Bill Haas | $14,000 | $9,500 | $7,800 | 108 | 162 | 145 | 143 | 121 | 148 | 85 | 31 | 120 | 120 | 75 | 131 | 119 | 80 | -56 | -62 | -54 |
David Lingmerth | $14,500 | $7,900 | $8,200 | 178 | 25 | 61 | 99 | 177 | 108 | 186 | 109 | 191 | 191 | 157 | 63 | 119 | 81 | -63 | -26 | -62 |
Chris Stroud | $11,600 | $7,100 | $6,900 | 177 | 75 | 24 | 40 | 127 | 130 | 194 | 71 | 167 | 167 | 164 | 81 | 119 | 82 | -19 | 11 | 0 |
Si Woo Kim | $14,500 | $9,600 | $7,600 | 134 | 111 | 188 | 123 | 136 | 97 | 42 | 142 | 137 | 136 | 69 | 183 | 124 | 83 | -54 | -67 | -64 |
Martin Flores | $11,200 | $7,200 | $6,500 | 65 | 184 | 49 | 190 | 117 | 173 | 138 | 146 | 111 | 111 | 136 | 167 | 125 | 84 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
Dominic Bozzelli | $11,200 | $7,700 | $6,800 | 83 | 162 | 44 | 130 | 164 | 130 | 173 | 117 | 191 | 191 | 155 | 60 | 126 | 85 | -14 | -18 | 6 |
Ethan Tracy | $11,100 | $7,400 | $6,500 | 80 | 119 | 84 | 204 | 136 | 122 | 204 | 155 | 170 | 170 | 185 | 92 | 127 | 86 | 7 | -5 | 8 |
Scott Brown | $11,700 | $7,100 | $6,800 | 143 | 101 | 123 | 157 | 122 | 149 | 166 | 133 | 121 | 121 | 172 | 112 | 129 | 87 | -16 | 6 | -14 |
Lanto Griffin | $13,000 | $7,300 | $6,400 | 58 | 194 | 193 | 138 | 150 | 141 | 45 | 177 | 85 | 84 | 152 | 157 | 129 | 88 | 13 | -1 | -54 |
Aaron Baddeley | $12,200 | $8,300 | $6,700 | 102 | 195 | 87 | 105 | 142 | 142 | 134 | 34 | 180 | 180 | 83 | 137 | 130 | 89 | -10 | -45 | -31 |
Sung Kang | $12,100 | $7,300 | $7,300 | 108 | 154 | 88 | 163 | 141 | 45 | 111 | 184 | 162 | 162 | 170 | 166 | 133 | 90 | -51 | -3 | -27 |
Stephan Jaeger | $11,400 | $7,500 | $6,900 | 85 | 151 | 94 | 132 | 204 | 186 | 198 | 157 | 127 | 127 | 151 | 121 | 133 | 91 | -28 | -13 | -6 |
Rod Pampling | $10,300 | $7,000 | $6,400 | 167 | 55 | 115 | 106 | 164 | 179 | 207 | 125 | 154 | 154 | 168 | 167 | 135 | 92 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
Whee Kim | $12,000 | $7,200 | $7,300 | 178 | 127 | 113 | 19 | 128 | 169 | 181 | 67 | 179 | 179 | 191 | 16 | 136 | 93 | -54 | -3 | -28 |
Cody Gribble | $11,900 | $7,900 | $6,700 | 55 | 172 | 209 | 133 | 25 | 163 | 174 | 189 | 184 | 184 | 186 | 55 | 138 | 94 | -15 | -39 | -26 |
Robert Streb | $11,300 | $7,300 | $6,800 | 118 | 174 | 83 | 82 | 154 | 123 | 170 | 168 | 162 | 162 | 159 | 133 | 140 | 95 | -24 | -8 | -7 |
Jonathan Randolph | $10,800 | $7,000 | $6,500 | 166 | 78 | 123 | 120 | 192 | 168 | 200 | 97 | 195 | 195 | 191 | 86 | 140 | 96 | -3 | 1 | 7 |
Peter Malnati | $12,300 | $8,100 | $7,000 | 169 | 155 | 132 | 87 | 110 | 191 | 180 | 56 | 181 | 181 | 163 | 9 | 140 | 97 | -40 | -46 | -43 |
Matt Every | $11,200 | $7,000 | $6,900 | 110 | 168 | 188 | 148 | 63 | 101 | 143 | 196 | 144 | 144 | 182 | 164 | 144 | 98 | -35 | -1 | -7 |
Jonas Blixt | $11,300 | $7,000 | $6,700 | 141 | 117 | 186 | 193 | 144 | 193 | 168 | 130 | 191 | 191 | 183 | 37 | 145 | 99 | -20 | -2 | -11 |
Geoff Ogilvy | $11,100 | $7,200 | $6,700 | 171 | 65 | 200 | 141 | 168 | 181 | 201 | 162 | 162 | 162 | 189 | 144 | 149 | 100 | -21 | -10 | -6 |
Rob Oppenheim | $10,900 | $7,000 | $6,500 | 193 | 176 | 169 | 92 | 75 | 79 | 164 | 72 | 151 | 151 | 158 | 168 | 149 | 101 | -8 | -4 | -3 |
Michael Kim | $11,800 | $7,100 | $6,800 | 159 | 186 | 74 | 82 | 165 | 176 | 170 | 155 | 182 | 182 | 186 | 54 | 151 | 102 | -31 | -9 | -31 |
Ricky Barnes | $10,500 | $0 | $7,100 | 151 | 199 | 186 | 138 | 30 | 159 | 181 | 162 | 170 | 170 | 173 | 59 | 155 | 103 | -53 | 4 | 1 |
Martin Piller | $10,900 | $7,000 | $6,500 | 138 | 147 | 173 | 148 | 210 | 193 | 208 | 125 | 198 | 198 | 197 | 109 | 159 | 104 | -11 | -7 | -6 |
Derek Fathauer | $11,100 | $7,400 | $6,800 | 165 | 193 | 154 | 145 | 112 | 162 | 181 | 163 | 194 | 194 | 190 | 50 | 161 | 105 | -34 | -24 | -11 |
D.A. Points | $10,300 | $7,000 | $6,400 | 200 | 105 | 201 | 202 | 182 | 179 | 137 | 195 | 180 | 180 | 189 | 127 | 163 | 106 | -5 | -9 | -1 |
Andrew Yun | $10,900 | $7,000 | $6,400 | 143 | 170 | 174 | 197 | 124 | 207 | 187 | 257 | 191 | 191 | 200 | 205 | 176 | 107 | -6 | -10 | -9 |
So the “story” this week continues a familiar trend for us coming into and out of the US Open! A tough course. A driving course. Very penal rough. Have to be in the fairways. And just so you can’t sit on accuracy guys totally – it’s quite long, so that helps too. It’s quite a stern test especially when these “lesser” tournaments tend to favor easier courses and we see tests like this more in majors or WGC events, let’s say.
In any case this is what we’re faced with! Overall it’s a tee-to-green paradise again, and well-rounded drivers of the golf ball should position themselves well along with guys who can just get absurdly close with their proximity. I’m not as worried about putting this week because the chances will be few and far between, and previously here we’ve seen lightning fast greens that also levels the playing field slightly.
At the top of this field, to me, I see a choice between Rickie Fowler and Tiger Woods. I expect quite high ownership on both, because well, things thin out quite quickly after that. Rickie has had success at this tournament (with rotating locations) including a 3rd place last year at this course. Tiger Woods is heavily involved with hosting this tournament and the sponsors, so it’s very familiar to him as well, despite not playing this track last year. Rickie does tend to gain a few strokes with his putter, and Tiger does tend to have a little bit of a wild driver, but I don’t consider either of them to be limited by the course fit at the end of the day, and they’re surely the class of this field, despite looking inconsistent compared to some of their peers (who are all sitting this one out).
The other guy worth looking at in a big way, and my only “pivot” option if you can even call it that, up top, is Francesco Molinari. A guy I’ve been on in a big way for quite awhile, he got his “payoff” in Europe befor ethe US Open with a 1st place – 2nd place back-to-back showing. His secret that is not-so-secret anymore is that he’s started adding distance a consistent strokes gained with his driver. Stateside, he hasn’t put that together yet with his traditionally strong ballstriking. But when he does, it will be a recipe for contention, and especially at a track like this one. I like getting him in a more star-studded field where he can hide a lot more, but this is what we’ve been dealt and I’ll surely have some of him!
I don’t really feel like Leishman has done enough lately to be anything othher than pure contrarian here. Kyle Stanley fits but I’m not getting excited about him, he’s priced about right for his recent prowess. Jimmy Walker is a sneaky play if he’s low-owned enough, it’s to early to tell exactly what’s going on but his form has been consistently strong tee to green for some weeks now and there’s a small chance we’re seeing a little renaissance!
Everyone else near the top of the salaries I’d much rather be paying $8,000 for, to be honest.
As far as core value plays, that’s what this field is weak on. There’s not a Paul Casey or Patrick Cantlay type super stud player you can just pencil in for a top 50 and build around. What I do see are a lot of really great punt plays. This favors big tournament entries more than cash game entries this week – I feel like this entire week does, given the penalty of the rough making it possible for ANYONE to miss a cut here and the relative inconsistency of the field, this week is tailor-made for bigger tournaments and not so much reliable cash action.
So for the scrubs of the stars and scrubs- we have a lot to pick from. The closest thing to a standout sheet value I believe is Gary Woodland, and I can get on board with him for sure! The tee-to-green expert has gone far beyond the “bomber” label some time ago, and even has flashed some skills around and on the green over the past year, from time-to-time. Mixed in there are guys like Hadley, Ben An, Streelman, and to a lesser extent Lovemark.
For the real differentiators – there are dozens of options, and this is where having good research and a good sheet can help uncover some of these unheard of guys who have as good of a chance as anyone or better here. Some of my favorites standing out early, for big tournament high-variance lineups, are guys like Conners, Spaun, Duncan, Richy Werenski, Joel Dahmen, and Matt Jones. I see guys like Putnam, Si Woo Kim, Brian Gay, and Adam Hadwin being clamored over and I will stay far, far away in big tournaments as none of those guys have done anything to cause them to be 10x higher owned than many of their counterparts, at least as far as trying to take down a big prize!
Good luck this week everyone!!
This week’s spreadsheet in the old format
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