PGA Weekly Course Analysis: Quicken Loans Invitational

Each week, Sean O’Donnell will break down the course in detail to figure out which golfers will be in the best position to succeed.

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Quicken Loans Invitational

Welcome this week to our nation’s capital! We’ve got really one of the “lamest” tournaments of the year this week but that’s what makes DFS even better some times! I know many of us wouldn’t pay much attention this week- except we have something to make it interesting! And DraftKings is keeping some momentum with some big contests, which we haven’t seen in a few years!

This is our second year at this course, it’s a tough one for a weak field, scoring will be muted, and we’ve got a lot of sloppy golfers to pick from! In reality, I believe that these are some of the best DFS events, as a big edge goes to the spreadsheet users and researchers. On the other hand there may be less casual fans playing, so no free lunch, we gotta dig in and have a little bit less fear and come a little bit more prepared than everyone else this week … let’s take a look!

TPC Potomac:

Par: 70
Length: 7107
Scoring average per round: +1.1
Chances of bogey free round (field): 1.2%
Best opportunities for 3-birdie streak (field): 12-13-14-15
Best chances for eagle: #14
Projected Cut: +2
Key Holes: 4, 6, 10, 11, 14

Here’s a visual representation of the eagle/better(dark blue), birdie(light blue), par(gray), bogey(orange), and double bogey/worse (red) percentages for each of the 18 holes:

Article Image

And a quick refresher on the stats we use each week in grading our course:

Statistic Description
Total Driving Combines Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance
Driving Accuracy Measures average number of fairways hit off tee shots
Driving Distance Measures average total yardage of drives
Approaches from * yards Measures average to-hole accuracy from fairways or tee shots on par 3s, from varying distances
Approaches from * yards (RTP) The average relative-to-par score for holes completed from a given range of approach distances
Scrambling The % of times that a player saved par or better after a missed green

Just a reminder that I combine the Proximity and the Relative to Par statistics for each approach yardage in an effort to incorporate the putting skill that is inherently included in the RTP statistic.

These are the approach yardage bins we’re going to use to set our course fit defaults in the spreadsheet:

Driving Distance: 14
Driving Accuracy: 14
Approaches <125: 6
Approaches 125-150: 2
Approaches 150-175: 3
Approaches 175-200: 5
Approaches >200: 4
Scrambling: 5

Name FDraft$ FD$ DK$ Dr. Distance Dr. Accuracy u125 125-150 150-175 175-200 o200 Scrambling GIR BoB% SG: T2G SG: Putt Weighted Rank RankOverSal DK RankOverSal FD RankOverSalFDraft
Rickie Fowler $18,800 $12,600 $11,700 89 50 114 19 51 16 23 9 25 25 29 63 54 1 0 0 0
Kyle Stanley $16,000 $10,100 $10,200 116 5 104 69 16 31 35 159 3 3 46 61 60 2 3 10 3
Byeong Hun An $15,100 $10,800 $8,600 24 85 47 73 46 74 35 65 72 72 18 126 62 3 11 4 9
Gary Woodland $14,700 $10,200 $8,100 6 79 150 40 140 59 7 184 8 7 31 82 64 4 15 7 14
Kevin Streelman $14,800 $8,700 $8,700 104 17 95 150 37 84 117 40 14 14 30 174 70 5 8 28 10
Chesson Hadley $14,500 $9,900 $8,400 62 131 52 33 119 19 29 121 40 40 30 28 70 6 10 7 13
Charles Howell III $15,700 $11,400 $8,900 59 114 25 98 52 142 154 21 30 30 40 81 74 7 4 -3 0
Martin Laird $13,800 $9,200 $7,800 61 78 52 115 87 76 76 64 107 107 73 43 76 8 16 16 20
Tiger Woods $17,400 $12,300 $11,000 26 184 17 45 104 61 32 19 102 102 5 89 76 9 -6 -7 -7
Kevin Na $15,400 $9,500 $9,400 174 60 9 59 4 32 12 9 115 115 45 86 77 10 -2 8 0
Marc Leishman $16,600 $11,200 $11,200 74 132 114 25 17 55 53 58 75 75 47 60 80 11 -9 -6 -8
Francesco Molinari $16,100 $10,700 $10,600 62 79 72 110 144 30 107 111 58 58 14 188 81 12 -8 -4 -8
Corey Conners $12,200 $8,900 $7,100 34 108 22 78 133 159 72 113 30 30 59 178 81 13 37 16 45
Andrew Putnam $14,200 $9,800 $7,900 95 122 27 178 70 33 198 81 10 10 55 77 82 14 8 0 10
Sam Ryder $12,100 $7,900 $7,100 89 31 64 46 66 170 99 173 8 8 90 185 82 15 35 40 48
Adam Hadwin $13,700 $9,700 $7,300 147 40 104 114 83 36 68 122 45 45 54 83 82 16 23 -1 13
Matt Jones $12,900 $8,500 $7,600 28 128 55 43 112 77 146 57 68 68 63 165 83 17 12 20 19
Beau Hossler $15,500 $10,400 $9,300 52 102 94 68 189 142 139 51 55 55 112 17 85 18 -9 -9 -9
Bronson Burgoon $11,400 $7,400 $6,400 46 35 183 110 152 118 23 184 49 49 105 127 85 19 82 62 66
J.T. Poston $12,900 $9,000 $7,700 54 97 179 75 100 5 97 113 52 52 76 143 86 20 7 8 16
Jamie Lovemark $14,800 $9,400 $8,300 45 143 83 146 58 123 64 50 94 94 42 82 87 21 -4 -1 -6
C.T. Pan $13,700 $8,500 $7,300 132 25 68 127 95 138 100 157 15 15 89 138 87 22 17 15 7
James Hahn $12,800 $8,500 $7,200 83 102 132 57 47 84 112 68 57 57 58 124 87 23 22 14 17
J.J. Spaun $12,400 $7,800 $7,000 72 77 144 66 105 159 34 152 24 23 56 159 88 24 33 40 25
Billy Horschel $14,800 $9,600 $7,900 91 41 56 163 187 170 111 185 60 60 99 37 91 25 -3 -9 -10
Brian Gay $14,100 $9,100 $7,400 190 16 26 142 49 131 70 20 149 149 106 30 92 26 9 0 -1
Nick Watney $13,100 $8,700 $7,500 19 178 101 52 171 65 49 142 77 77 91 62 93 27 5 6 6
Rory Sabbatini $12,900 $8,800 $7,400 129 75 128 92 125 73 95 50 70 70 70 102 93 28 7 3 8
Ryan Armour $12,600 $8,100 $7,500 194 2 17 116 29 181 183 88 50 50 61 157 94 29 3 22 14
J.B. Holmes $15,900 $10,900 $10,000 26 155 69 60 73 142 62 118 115 114 30 145 94 30 -24 -24 -24
Cameron Percy $10,100 $7,500 $6,500 121 41 92 110 87 128 71 136 63 63 104 170 95 31 62 47 76
Stewart Cink $14,900 $9,400 $8,500 73 159 96 49 120 72 31 177 31 31 46 150 95 32 -17 -12 -18
Jimmy Walker $15,600 $11,800 $9,600 65 176 126 34 33 8 41 95 142 142 63 44 95 33 -26 -30 -25
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $15,300 $10,300 $9,200 123 54 57 128 82 95 51 118 166 166 116 21 95 34 -24 -24 -23
Brandon Harkins $11,900 $7,900 $6,700 37 191 68 120 38 111 25 159 97 97 100 57 98 35 44 20 33
John Huh $12,200 $8,500 $7,100 166 42 57 45 71 140 141 111 94 94 104 67 98 36 14 1 22
Kevin Tway $14,300 $9,300 $8,000 12 194 63 59 151 84 84 136 93 93 72 121 98 37 -17 -15 -14
Jason Kokrak $12,400 $7,700 $6,900 16 154 178 189 170 87 35 155 48 48 78 129 99 38 25 29 11
Keith Mitchell $13,200 $9,200 $7,700 9 140 185 65 161 165 34 134 56 56 80 189 101 39 -12 -15 -7
Joel Dahmen $12,200 $8,300 $7,300 106 36 160 84 141 195 157 43 72 72 93 161 101 40 -1 4 18
Tyler Duncan $12,300 $7,900 $6,700 111 42 87 53 187 129 147 180 57 57 69 195 101 41 38 14 13
Alex Cejka $12,000 $7,400 $7,100 180 31 88 96 99 69 118 15 140 140 95 122 101 42 8 39 23
Patrick Rodgers $15,000 $9,300 $8,800 35 122 146 167 165 138 50 108 112 112 155 30 101 43 -31 -21 -30
Michael Thompson $11,700 $8,500 $6,800 102 77 153 177 139 56 189 163 50 49 171 16 102 44 27 -7 29
Ollie Schniederjans $12,900 $9,100 $7,400 62 187 58 48 38 79 85 94 148 148 75 80 102 45 -10 -19 -9
Ryan Palmer $12,600 $8,900 $7,500 18 126 77 19 152 149 79 143 137 137 91 191 103 46 -14 -17 -3
Shawn Stefani $11,500 $7,600 $6,800 66 170 104 159 82 23 67 85 112 111 117 108 103 47 24 26 37
Tom Hoge $12,300 $7,900 $7,200 153 106 79 42 106 32 29 37 144 144 83 147 103 48 -3 7 6
Nicholas Lindheim $11,800 $7,700 $6,600 108 130 37 113 40 56 203 188 65 65 171 27 103 49 39 18 22
Ben Crane $12,400 $8,600 $6,700 197 19 39 69 120 173 177 45 117 117 142 44 104 50 29 -15 -1
Ben Martin $12,400 $7,600 $7,200 149 70 39 81 79 96 166 98 128 128 123 90 105 51 -6 22 -2
Johnson Wagner $12,600 $8,300 $7,100 181 73 125 165 173 71 81 26 96 95 138 16 105 52 -2 -8 -9
J.J. Henry $10,900 $7,100 $6,400 140 48 93 150 146 160 94 159 37 37 87 198 105 53 48 40 45
Troy Merritt $12,500 $8,200 $7,300 92 90 15 167 128 178 149 116 133 133 126 76 106 54 -15 -6 -6
Robert Garrigus $12,000 $7,700 $6,700 21 164 153 54 107 10 157 175 105 105 59 197 107 55 24 12 10
Andrew Landry $12,200 $7,400 $6,900 127 101 33 151 153 65 120 106 114 114 119 124 107 56 7 25 2
Trey Mullinax $13,000 $8,200 $7,400 3 187 101 70 184 138 116 149 108 108 125 63 107 57 -22 -9 -23
Richy Werenski $12,700 $8,800 $7,200 133 49 149 33 139 125 144 99 96 94 123 142 108 58 -13 -27 -16
Brian Stuard $11,000 $7,800 $6,500 202 5 132 75 39 156 128 106 99 99 135 103 108 59 34 5 38
Sam Saunders $12,400 $7,900 $7,000 47 122 184 95 141 150 38 160 123 123 89 101 108 60 -3 -5 -11
Scott Stallings $12,300 $7,900 $6,800 69 172 50 145 83 134 132 49 128 128 79 131 109 61 10 -6 -7
Abraham Ancer $11,700 $8,400 $6,600 114 103 59 89 178 100 119 45 144 144 118 131 109 62 26 -20 11
Anirban Lahiri $13,900 $8,200 $7,800 107 114 146 177 47 92 73 117 118 117 117 111 110 63 -39 -15 -36
Denny McCarthy $12,800 $8,300 $7,200 120 90 206 101 184 115 90 94 86 84 171 18 111 64 -19 -20 -24
Blayne Barber $11,700 $7,400 $6,900 117 72 178 16 85 150 161 169 48 48 154 129 111 65 -2 16 8
Adam Schenk $10,900 $7,000 $6,500 30 129 155 145 165 174 169 151 75 74 148 81 111 66 27 31 32
Seamus Power $12,600 $8,000 $6,900 38 190 135 183 149 118 70 23 150 150 150 17 111 67 -4 -14 -24
Zac Blair $11,900 $7,800 $7,100 202 64 43 111 90 105 190 46 131 131 109 72 112 68 -18 -4 0
David Hearn $11,300 $7,700 $6,700 186 19 76 145 171 91 94 144 104 104 152 156 112 69 10 -2 19
Chad Campbell $11,700 $7,700 $6,600 179 34 77 63 120 177 163 59 97 97 120 189 112 70 18 -3 3
Talor Gooch $11,400 $7,000 $6,400 56 155 212 67 109 37 82 50 161 161 137 115 113 71 30 26 14
Tom Lovelady $11,700 $7,600 $6,900 6 188 149 83 195 110 63 200 90 90 126 142 114 72 -9 1 1
Nick Taylor $11,700 $7,600 $6,600 114 108 131 168 114 120 142 62 89 89 115 182 115 73 15 0 0
Harris English $12,600 $8,000 $7,000 43 151 179 82 140 121 105 95 163 162 159 34 115 74 -17 -21 -31
Kelly Kraft $11,700 $7,600 $7,000 149 70 140 113 41 94 178 100 140 140 170 69 116 75 -18 -2 -2
Ryan Blaum $13,300 $8,400 $7,600 164 46 44 100 162 175 177 154 116 116 121 125 117 76 -47 -34 -45
Danny Lee $14,400 $8,600 $8,000 164 89 115 99 57 104 68 147 137 137 148 81 117 77 -57 -42 -55
Ben Silverman $11,600 $7,500 $6,600 161 63 120 14 154 140 107 139 149 149 162 58 119 78 10 0 4
Tyrone Van Aswegen $11,700 $7,900 $7,000 141 152 78 102 35 60 171 86 122 122 131 123 119 79 -22 -24 -6
Bill Haas $14,000 $9,500 $7,800 108 162 145 143 121 148 85 31 120 120 75 131 119 80 -56 -62 -54
David Lingmerth $14,500 $7,900 $8,200 178 25 61 99 177 108 186 109 191 191 157 63 119 81 -63 -26 -62
Chris Stroud $11,600 $7,100 $6,900 177 75 24 40 127 130 194 71 167 167 164 81 119 82 -19 11 0
Si Woo Kim $14,500 $9,600 $7,600 134 111 188 123 136 97 42 142 137 136 69 183 124 83 -54 -67 -64
Martin Flores $11,200 $7,200 $6,500 65 184 49 190 117 173 138 146 111 111 136 167 125 84 9 6 7
Dominic Bozzelli $11,200 $7,700 $6,800 83 162 44 130 164 130 173 117 191 191 155 60 126 85 -14 -18 6
Ethan Tracy $11,100 $7,400 $6,500 80 119 84 204 136 122 204 155 170 170 185 92 127 86 7 -5 8
Scott Brown $11,700 $7,100 $6,800 143 101 123 157 122 149 166 133 121 121 172 112 129 87 -16 6 -14
Lanto Griffin $13,000 $7,300 $6,400 58 194 193 138 150 141 45 177 85 84 152 157 129 88 13 -1 -54
Aaron Baddeley $12,200 $8,300 $6,700 102 195 87 105 142 142 134 34 180 180 83 137 130 89 -10 -45 -31
Sung Kang $12,100 $7,300 $7,300 108 154 88 163 141 45 111 184 162 162 170 166 133 90 -51 -3 -27
Stephan Jaeger $11,400 $7,500 $6,900 85 151 94 132 204 186 198 157 127 127 151 121 133 91 -28 -13 -6
Rod Pampling $10,300 $7,000 $6,400 167 55 115 106 164 179 207 125 154 154 168 167 135 92 9 5 13
Whee Kim $12,000 $7,200 $7,300 178 127 113 19 128 169 181 67 179 179 191 16 136 93 -54 -3 -28
Cody Gribble $11,900 $7,900 $6,700 55 172 209 133 25 163 174 189 184 184 186 55 138 94 -15 -39 -26
Robert Streb $11,300 $7,300 $6,800 118 174 83 82 154 123 170 168 162 162 159 133 140 95 -24 -8 -7
Jonathan Randolph $10,800 $7,000 $6,500 166 78 123 120 192 168 200 97 195 195 191 86 140 96 -3 1 7
Peter Malnati $12,300 $8,100 $7,000 169 155 132 87 110 191 180 56 181 181 163 9 140 97 -40 -46 -43
Matt Every $11,200 $7,000 $6,900 110 168 188 148 63 101 143 196 144 144 182 164 144 98 -35 -1 -7
Jonas Blixt $11,300 $7,000 $6,700 141 117 186 193 144 193 168 130 191 191 183 37 145 99 -20 -2 -11
Geoff Ogilvy $11,100 $7,200 $6,700 171 65 200 141 168 181 201 162 162 162 189 144 149 100 -21 -10 -6
Rob Oppenheim $10,900 $7,000 $6,500 193 176 169 92 75 79 164 72 151 151 158 168 149 101 -8 -4 -3
Michael Kim $11,800 $7,100 $6,800 159 186 74 82 165 176 170 155 182 182 186 54 151 102 -31 -9 -31
Ricky Barnes $10,500 $0 $7,100 151 199 186 138 30 159 181 162 170 170 173 59 155 103 -53 4 1
Martin Piller $10,900 $7,000 $6,500 138 147 173 148 210 193 208 125 198 198 197 109 159 104 -11 -7 -6
Derek Fathauer $11,100 $7,400 $6,800 165 193 154 145 112 162 181 163 194 194 190 50 161 105 -34 -24 -11
D.A. Points $10,300 $7,000 $6,400 200 105 201 202 182 179 137 195 180 180 189 127 163 106 -5 -9 -1
Andrew Yun $10,900 $7,000 $6,400 143 170 174 197 124 207 187 257 191 191 200 205 176 107 -6 -10 -9

So the “story” this week continues a familiar trend for us coming into and out of the US Open! A tough course. A driving course. Very penal rough. Have to be in the fairways. And just so you can’t sit on accuracy guys totally – it’s quite long, so that helps too. It’s quite a stern test especially when these “lesser” tournaments tend to favor easier courses and we see tests like this more in majors or WGC events, let’s say.

In any case this is what we’re faced with! Overall it’s a tee-to-green paradise again, and well-rounded drivers of the golf ball should position themselves well along with guys who can just get absurdly close with their proximity. I’m not as worried about putting this week because the chances will be few and far between, and previously here we’ve seen lightning fast greens that also levels the playing field slightly.

At the top of this field, to me, I see a choice between Rickie Fowler and Tiger Woods. I expect quite high ownership on both, because well, things thin out quite quickly after that. Rickie has had success at this tournament (with rotating locations) including a 3rd place last year at this course. Tiger Woods is heavily involved with hosting this tournament and the sponsors, so it’s very familiar to him as well, despite not playing this track last year. Rickie does tend to gain a few strokes with his putter, and Tiger does tend to have a little bit of a wild driver, but I don’t consider either of them to be limited by the course fit at the end of the day, and they’re surely the class of this field, despite looking inconsistent compared to some of their peers (who are all sitting this one out).

The other guy worth looking at in a big way, and my only “pivot” option if you can even call it that, up top, is Francesco Molinari. A guy I’ve been on in a big way for quite awhile, he got his “payoff” in Europe befor ethe US Open with a 1st place – 2nd place back-to-back showing. His secret that is not-so-secret anymore is that he’s started adding distance a consistent strokes gained with his driver. Stateside, he hasn’t put that together yet with his traditionally strong ballstriking. But when he does, it will be a recipe for contention, and especially at a track like this one. I like getting him in a more star-studded field where he can hide a lot more, but this is what we’ve been dealt and I’ll surely have some of him!

I don’t really feel like Leishman has done enough lately to be anything othher than pure contrarian here. Kyle Stanley fits but I’m not getting excited about him, he’s priced about right for his recent prowess. Jimmy Walker is a sneaky play if he’s low-owned enough, it’s to early to tell exactly what’s going on but his form has been consistently strong tee to green for some weeks now and there’s a small chance we’re seeing a little renaissance!

Everyone else near the top of the salaries I’d much rather be paying $8,000 for, to be honest.

As far as core value plays, that’s what this field is weak on. There’s not a Paul Casey or Patrick Cantlay type super stud player you can just pencil in for a top 50 and build around. What I do see are a lot of really great punt plays. This favors big tournament entries more than cash game entries this week – I feel like this entire week does, given the penalty of the rough making it possible for ANYONE to miss a cut here and the relative inconsistency of the field, this week is tailor-made for bigger tournaments and not so much reliable cash action.

So for the scrubs of the stars and scrubs- we have a lot to pick from. The closest thing to a standout sheet value I believe is Gary Woodland, and I can get on board with him for sure! The tee-to-green expert has gone far beyond the “bomber” label some time ago, and even has flashed some skills around and on the green over the past year, from time-to-time. Mixed in there are guys like Hadley, Ben An, Streelman, and to a lesser extent Lovemark.

For the real differentiators – there are dozens of options, and this is where having good research and a good sheet can help uncover some of these unheard of guys who have as good of a chance as anyone or better here. Some of my favorites standing out early, for big tournament high-variance lineups, are guys like Conners, Spaun, Duncan, Richy Werenski, Joel Dahmen, and Matt Jones. I see guys like Putnam, Si Woo Kim, Brian Gay, and Adam Hadwin being clamored over and I will stay far, far away in big tournaments as none of those guys have done anything to cause them to be 10x higher owned than many of their counterparts, at least as far as trying to take down a big prize!

Good luck this week everyone!!

This week’s spreadsheet in the old format

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hokie2009
Sean O'Donnell (hokie2009)

Sean O’Donnell is a proud Hokie (Virginia Tech class of 2009, electrical engineering) as well as a Grateful Dead enthusiast. A fantasy baseball player since age 12, he has flirted with DFS in the past, but only this season stumbled onto the dearth of information that exists pertaining to daily fantasy golf and made a commitment to analyzing PGA tournament data on a weekly basis. When he’s not scouring the web for obscure PGA data, he works as a consultant for small businesses involved in research grants with the federal government.