Raybon’s Rollout: NFL Week 13

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Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.

Winning a GPP is about stuffing the maximum amount of points into a nine-player lineup given salary cap constraints, so it would only make sense that one of the best ways to find value is to exploit salary decreases. Oftentimes these decreases can be exploited because if a salary algorithm once valued a player more favorably than it does currently, that player is not priced according to his true upside — his floor is pulling down his salary. In a GPP, we’re more concerned with ceilings, so it makes sense to take some shots at players whose salaries have dipped in order to maximize the upside of your lineup.

These dips often come with the added benefit of recency bias also depressing a player’s ownership. Salary decreases will be especially emphasized in this week’s column.

Unconventional Stacks

QB Matthew Stafford + WR Marvin Jones + WR Willie Snead

Editor’s Note: NFL Networks’ Ian Rapoport is reporting that Marvin Jones is a “long-shot to play,” but according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Lions will test Jones’s leg during pre-game warmups before making a determination.

With the highest over/under on the slate (53.5 as of this writing), Lions-Saints will almost certainly be a factor in determining who wins all the money in DFS this weekend. Drew Brees is a monster at home (340.5 yards and 2.64 TDs passing at home since ‘14), and will garner a ton of ownership against a Lions pass defense ranked dead last in DVOA. Michael Thomas is pacing the Saints in all receiving categories, Brandin Cooks coming off a goose egg is the supposedly contrarian play that won’t even be contrarian by Sunday, and Golden Tate is the obvious play on the other side of the ball after a six-game stretch where he’s averaged 9.0 targets and 6.7 catches.

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I believe the best leverage plays in this game are Stafford, Jones, and Snead. When a QB scores 25+ points on DraftKings, the opposing QB is the most likely player in the same game to also score 25+ (even more likely than the original QB’s own WR1). On FanDuel, the opposing QB is the second most likely to do so, behind only the original QB’s WR1. If Brees smashes, there’s a good chance Stafford will too — at a lower price and with less ownership. Since Jones’ Week 5 salary peak, his price has come down $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel. While Tate will garner more ownership, Jones has more upside. Tate has only cleared 80 yards twice and averages 10.8 yards per reception, while Jones has cleared 80 yards four times and averages 17.4 yards per reception. Jones also owns the third-highest scoring game of the year of any WR this season.

Snead’s price peaked in Week 4 and has since come down $1,400 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel. Since 2015, Snead is averaging a 5.8-72.5-0.5 line at home, compared to 3.9-54.9-0.09 on the road. Because he runs most of his routes from the slot, Snead has the best matchup among Saints WRs against slot corner Quandre Diggs. Diggs is rated 85th of 117 qualified corners by PFF, while boundary corners Darius Slay and Nevin Lawson are ranked fifth and 23rd, respectively.

QB Aaron Rodgers + WR Jordy Nelson + WR DeAndre Hopkins

A lot of people will talk themselves out of targeting this game due to possible snow (winds will be a non-concern at 7-10 mph, however), the fact that the over/under is mediocre (45.5, sixth-lowest on the slate), and the fact that the Texans have good defense-versus-position numbers against QBs, WRs, and TEs. That makes this game a prime target for contrarians, and as you’re about to see, it’s not just blind contrarianism — there’s a ton of value here.

No QB has scored more fantasy points over the last five weeks than Rodgers, who averages the most FanDuel points and second-most DraftKings per game on the season. Despite that, Rodgers’ salary is the lowest it has been all season on both FanDuel and DraftKings (in fact, it’s the lowest it has ever been on DraftKings). Nelson leads the Packers in targets and has 90+ yards and/or a TD in 9-of-11 games this season. Houston looks like a tough on-paper matchup, but allowed to 6-119-1 to Dontrelle Inman and 8-70-1 to Tyrell Williams last week, as well as 9-107-1 to the struggling Allen Robinson in Week 10. Nelson leads the league in red zone targets (21) and is one of the best bets on the slate to score multiple TDs. Nelson’s salary is the lowest it has been since Week 17 of 2013 on FanDuel and Week 2 of 2014 on DraftKings. Nelson’s ownership likely will be minimal too, due to recency bias surrounding Davante Adams after Adams’ two-TD game on national TV in prime-time last Monday.

Hopkins has been left for dead by the fantasy/DFS community, but opposing passing games have a positive correlation, especially when it comes to WR1s. Hopkins’ price is the lowest it has been since Week 4 of 2014 on FanDuel and Week 16 of 2014 on DraftKings. The Packers rank 25th in strength-of-schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and dead last in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs. Only seven WRs average more targets per game than Hopkins (9.8). If Hopkins had not been incorrectly ruled out of bounds at the 36-yard line two weeks ago by officials who bet on the Raiders to cover the spread, he would have had a 5-94-1 line that game and a 5-82-0.5 average over his last two games, and would probably be perceived a lot more favorably coming into this week’s tilt with the Packers.

QB Matt Ryan + WR Julio Jones + TE Travis Kelce

Ryan has been a top-five fantasy QB on the season and is a home favorite with an implied total of over over 26 against a Chiefs defense ranked 27th in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Matty Ice is averaging 333.4 yards and 2.4 TDs passing at home this season. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, and Mike Evans all face defenses that rank in the top-10 in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, while Jones will do battle with a Chiefs defense ranked 29th. Jones’ upside is tremendous — he leads the league in receiving yards per game (103.6), is fifth in yards per reception (17.5), and is the only WR in the league averaging more than 15.0 yards per reception that has caught more than 42 passes (he’s caught 65). Ryan’s salary is the lowest it has been since Week 6 of this season on DraftKings, while Jones’ salary is the lowest it’s been since Week 13 of the 2014 season on FanDuel.

Tyreek Hill is likely to be the most popular option in this game, but Kelce offers upside at a more scarce position. His opportunity tends to spike when the Chiefs are underdogs and have to throw to keep pace with the opposition — he’s averaging 9.0 targets per game as an underdog this season, compared to just 6.6 as a favorite. The Chiefs are underdogs against an Atlanta squad that allowed Jermaine Gresham to post his best fantasy outing in two years last week. The Falcons are allowing a league-high 9.3 targets per game to the position. Kelce’s DraftKings salary rose $700 from last week, but is still down $900 from Week 10. On FanDuel, his salary stayed the same despite going over 100 yards last week, and is down $300 from its Week 9 peak.

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RB Devontae Booker + DST Denver Broncos

Booker’s price has come down $1,900 on DraftKings and $1,400 on FanDuel over the past two weeks despite the fact he has 25+ touches in each of his last two games. He’s a five-point road favorite against a Jaguars defense ranked 21st in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and 23rd in run defense DVOA. The Broncos DST is second in points per game at the position and will face Blake Bortles and a Jaguars defense ranked 26th in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing DSTs. The Jags have coughed up the second-most turnovers in the league.

K Stephen Gostkowski + DST New England Patriots

Given that DST production is positively correlated with point spread and negatively correlated with opposing team total, the Patriots are in a spot so pristine that they’re not even going to worry about finding a new way to cheat this week. New England is a 13.5-point favorite, while the Rams’ implied total is just 15.5. Vegas thinks this game has a good shot of getting out of hand, as the Rams are playing their second straight road game and will be traveling across the country to a cold-weather city. I agree with the oddsmakers here.

The correlation between kicker and defense is .29, which is in the range of some QB-receiver stacks. Kicker scoring is correlated with implied totals, and the Patriots total of 29 is the second-highest on the slate. Gostkowski’s salary is under $5,000 for just the fourth time since 2010.

Coaching Tendency to Exploit

The Patriots’ tendency to run in close

When we think of the Patriots scoring a lot of points, Tom Brady always comes to mind first. But over the last five weeks, the Patriots have run the ball on first or second down from the opponent’s’ 10-yard line and in on 19-of-26 pays. That 73.1% clip is significantly higher than the NFL average of 59.6% and gives LeGarrette Blount multi-TD upside. Blount’s price has come down $900 on DraftKings and $700 on FanDuel over the past two weeks. In four games as a double-digit favorite over the last three seasons, Blount is averaging 1.25 TDs. In five games as a home favorite this season, Blount is averaging 1.4 TDs. Blount will likely go overlooked against a Rams defense that allowed 30-201-1 to Saints RBs last week.

Injury Situation to Exploit

Jordan Reed’s shoulder sprain

Vernon Davis is not far above the minimum salary across the industry and should see an uptick in usage with Jordan Reed likely being deployed as a decoy or potentially even missing this week’s game altogether. Even with Reed in the lineup for the past four games, Davis has cleared 65 yards three times. Davis is fourth among qualified TEs in yards per reception (14.5) and offers big play upside on a team that attempts the sixth-most passes per game (39.8) in a game tied for the slate’s second-highest over/under (49.5).

About the Author

chrisraybon
Chris Raybon (chrisraybon)

One of the most well respected DFS analysts in the industry. Chris Raybon (@Chris Raybon) is the Senior DFS Editor for 4for4.com and the host of the DFS MVP Podcast. Nominated for the FWSA‘s Newcomer of the Year award in 2015, Raybon is known for his DFS Playbook positional strategy guides as well as his groundbreaking work on stacking with running backs in DFS tournaments. A Syracuse University alum who specialized in accounting, Raybon believes in the synergy of quantitative and qualitative analysis. He started playing fantasy as a kid in the mid-90s and has seen every single play of every single NFL game since 2010.