RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 10
Giants at 49ers
Vegas-Implied Total: Giants 22.25, 49ers 19.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
49ers Run D – 23rd DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O – 27th DVOA / 20th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D – 27th DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Giants Pass O – 18th DVOA / 28th Yards per pass attempt
Giants Run D – 25th DVOA / 20th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O – 23rd DVOA / 13th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D – 26th DVOA / 24th Yards allowed per pass attempt
49ers Pass O – 29th DVOA / 29th Yards per pass attempt
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This is one of my favorite games on the week – for so many reasons.
Reason 1: Pace of Play
San Francisco ranks first in pace of play.
The New York Giants rank sixth in pace of play.
Reason 2: Passing Play Percentage
The 49ers throw the ball more often than any other team in football.
The Giants rank fourth in the NFL in passing play percentage.
Reason 3: Opponent Plays Per Game
Only one team in the NFL is allowing more opponent plays per game than the Giants.
That team is the 49ers
Reason 4: Missing Time of Possession
The 49ers average only 26:04 per game in time of possession – the worst mark in the NFL.
The Giants average only 27:49 per game in time of possession – the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
Reason 5: Defensive Ineptitude
San Francisco ranks 31st in points allowed per game and 27th in yards allowed per game.
New York ranks 29th in points allowed per game and 30th in yards allowed per game.
Yes, both of these offenses are poor as well. But also, yes: both FanDuel and DraftKings award us for each reception we get on our team (with a half-point on FanDuel, and a full point on DraftKings). And in this game, we have two offenses that play among the fastest paces in the NFL, while throwing among the most often in the NFL. This immediately sets up a great situation for PPR and half-PPR scoring. Then, these teams are missing a combined 6:07 in time of possession – which essentially means that these players are priced for the low time of possession they’ve been seeing, and this week, these players will be seeing several more minutes in time of possession. And with the poor defensive play on both sides, all these opportunities through the air will lead to opportunities for breakdowns in coverage or missed tackles, and for a big play to occur.
This is where taking cues purely from the Vegas line turns into a big mistake. This game could be low scoring (which I also do not expect to be the case), and it would still have a chance to produce plenty of fantasy goodness because of the sheer volume of plays we are likely to see.
There are also a few clear, top plays to target in this game:
On the Giants’ side, Eli Manning should throw the ball around 40 times – and after taking on the Chargers, Broncos, Seahawks, and Rams (only the Broncos of whom rank outside the top ten in “fewest fantasy points allowed per game to QBs”), he now gets to take on a 49ers team that is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With Mike Evans out of action for the Buccaneers, I think this makes Eli just as usable as Fitzpatrick this week, as Eli has a better matchup and better weapons.
The main weapons Eli should focus on are Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. Shepard is one of my favorite point-per-dollar plays on the slate, as the nine targets he saw last week likely represent his low-water mark, and he has a much better matchup this week. There is no guarantee he hits his upside, of course, but he’s severely underpriced on both sites. Engram has a tougher matchup against a 49ers squad that still ranks first in DVOA against the tight end, though Engram has enough of a wide receiver skill set – and is locked into a large enough workload – that I’m not too bothered by that. Even with his price rising, he’s a strong play.
I don’t absolutely hate the idea of taking a shot on Tavarres King, as he could get enough targets to pay off. But Shepard and Engram are the absolute centerpieces of this passing attack.
I also like the matchup and setup for Orleans Darkwa, who has seemingly solidified his lead back status – with Paul Perkins receiving zero touches last week, and Darkwa seeing 16 carries and two targets in a 51-17 blowout. I do not think that the increased play volume necessarily means an increased workload for Darkwa (the Giants are going to just mix in Wayne Gallman and Shane Vereen and even Paul Perkins more often if the plays keep piling up), but the increased play volume does make it that much more likely that Darkwa sees his 18 to 20 touches once again – making him one of the stronger value plays on the slate.
The 49ers are tougher to figure out – especially now that Kyle Shanahan is holding off on naming a quarterback for Week 10. If C.J. Beathard starts, he’ll be nearly unusable, given the chance that he could be benched for Jimmy Garoppolo. If Garoppolo draws the start, he’d be a tough sell simply because he would have so little to work with now that Pierre Garcon is down for the year. But Garoppolo would definitely be intriguing – and he would make these pass catchers intriguing as well.
Marquise Goodwin has seen 19 targets across his last three games, though he has only six catches to show for it. Aldrick Robinson has seen 11 targets across his last three games (with Garcon out, he should see 8+ looks in every game moving forward), but he has only three catches to show for it.
This week, it should not surprise us if both of these guys hit double-digit looks – though the effectiveness of these looks will be a big question mark. I’d feel comfortable with either guy as a low-floor, high-ceiling play in large-field tourneys if Beathard is starting; I may genuinely feel comfortable with either guy in cash games (and would definitely like them in tourneys of all sizes) if Garoppolo draws the start.
With Garcon out for the season, George Kittle out for Week 10, and Trent Taylor out for Week 10, a super-deep sleeper to consider is Kendrick Bourne, who played 40 snaps after Taylor got hurt last week, and caught two of six targets for 39 yards. It is probably noteworthy that Bourne – at 6’1” – provides the sort of body the 49ers miss without Garcon, as Aldrick and Goodwin are each 5’10”. While Garrett Celek is a blocking tight end ill-suited to exposing the Giants’ defense, Bourne can also be used in some of the interior routes Kittle would have run. Bourne is one of my favorite tourney plays this weekend.
While I’m not worried about matchups anywhere on the field against this cross-country-traveling team that has completely mailed it in, Carlos Hyde has an excellent matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the run and 20th in yards allowed per carry. San Francisco ranks a respectable 14th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards, while the Giants’ defense ranks 23rd in the same category. With Beathard under center and the 49ers getting blown out the last three weeks, Hyde has seen target counts of eight, nine, and 11. While he has topped 16 carries only once this year, he has seen six or more targets in all but two games, and Todd Gurley is the only player in the NFL with more carries inside the five-yard-line. With increased play volume for the 49ers, Hyde should be a big part of the offense this week.
Guys I like in cash games: Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Carlos Hyde
Guys I like in tourneys: All of the above, plus: Orleans Darkwa, Evan Engram, Marquise Goodwin, Aldrick Robinson, Kendrick Bourne
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
Automattek Absolutes
Who is the number one beneficiary of Pierre Garcon being out for the year? Carlos Hyde. With Garcon on the IR, Hyde received 11 targets and converted 9 of those into a catch. While we are likely going to have Beathard as the quarterback for at least one more week, that is actually a slight positive. A young, terrible rookie quarterback is far more likely to play conservative than to force the action down the field to a player like Marquise Goodwin who seems neutered without Brian Hoyer. Goodwin had 8 targets last week but converted only two of those into catches with 154 Air Yards.
Hyde on the other hand, lead the team in targets with 11 and had an average depth of target of only 2.9 yards down the field. That is absolutely terrible real football, but it is very good for Hyde’s fantasy value. Matt Brieda had only one carry in last weeks horrible loss and his three total touches were a season low. The 49ers are bad but getting a monopoly of the work on a bad team against another bad team (despite being touted as a good defense, the Giants rank 28th in total defensive DVOA) is still valuable. For his price on DraftKings, Hyde seems like a cash game necessity. He has less ceiling than guys like Chris Thompson or Jerick McKinnon but his floor is the best in this price range.
Engram has become the superior version of Jack Doyle. He plays on a very bad team that struggles to score points (even worse than the Colts in fact) but his superior athleticism and market share make him a truly dominant fantasy force. He has 22 targets the last two weeks even with Sterling Shepard in the lineup and gets a great matchup against the 49ers who have the fastest time per play on offense and have conceded the most total plays in football. This is going to be another double digit target spot for Engram and I expect him to lead Giants skill position players in fantasy points.
RotoGrinders Expert Survey
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: Everything lines up for the Giants and Niners game to be a sneaky shootout. The Niners pass the ball often, the Giants have struggled to run all season, and both teams feature defenses that are ranked 25th or worse in total DVOA and 27th or worse in DVOA against the pass. The best part is that all of the key players are affordable in DFS this week.
STLCardinals84: For as bad as the Giants have been, they have actually opened as road favorites against the 49ers. This is the same Giants team that gave up more than 50 points to the Rams last week! This game has sneaky shootout potential despite how bad both teams are, as the defenses are just as bad as the offenses. We won’t have pretty football here, but guys like Carlos Hyde, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard are very intriguing options. I like the value that we have on this enitre slate, too. It should be a fun week.
JMToWin: The 49ers rank first in pace of play and first in passing play percentage – each of which are core ingredients for a shootout. On the other side of their matchup this week, the Giants rank sixth in pace of play and fourth in passing play percentage. This sets up this game for a shootout, and for plenty of affordable DFS fireworks along the way.