RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 13

Buccaneers at Packers

Vegas-Implied Total: Buccaneers 22.25, Packers 22.25

KEY MATCHUPS:

Packers Run D – 7th DVOA / 8th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O – 28th DVOA / 29th Yards per carry

Packers Pass D – 22nd DVOA / 28th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Buccaneers Pass O – 12th DVOA / 17th Yards per pass attempt

Buccaneers Run D – 20th DVOA / 16th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O – 4th DVOA / 11th Yards per carry

Buccaneers Pass D – 30th DVOA / 30th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Packers Pass O – 16th DVOA / 21st Yards per pass attempt

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LEVEL I – The Research

This is a perfect storm for the Buccaneers’ offense and their efforts to get back on track as a high-upside unit, as Jameis Winston is returning to the field this week, Doug Martin (concussion) looks unlikely to play, and they are taking on a Packers defense that ranks eighth in yards allowed per carry but 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt. Tampa Bay ranks fourth in the NFL in passing play percentage, and Jameis should step right back into the 38+ pass attempts he had in each of his last five full games played. He topped 300 yards in four of those five games, and the Packers have allowed the fifth-most QB passing yards per game.

The Packers’ woes against the pass have been primarily due to an inability to cover wide receivers, as only five teams are allowing more receptions to the position, and their 65.4% completion rate allowed to wide receivers is indicative of just how tough of a time they have had holding down wide receiver production. Only three teams have allowed more yards to wide receivers than the Packers have allowed, and only four teams have allowed more touchdowns.

Mike Evans has seen at least eight targets in all but one game this year, with double-digit looks in four of his last five games. While most people are clinging to hope that Evans “turns into” the receiver he was last year, it is worth noting that he is being used differently – with an average depth of target this year of 13.5, after notching a 15.2 mark last season. The arrival of DeSean Jackson has led to Evans running fewer deep routes – and because Evans is about as poor as they come in racking up yards after catch, he will need quite a few catches or an end zone target or two in order to truly pay off. DeSean, meanwhile, ranks fourth in the NFL in average depth of target (16.2), and while he is not a lock for a large workload, the likeliest scenario is that he sees seven or more targets (as he has in seven games this year). The red zone targets go to Mike Evans (13 red zone looks; eight looks inside the 10 – with only one catch inside the 10, which speaks to the positive touchdown regression that should come this year), but DeSean gets a few looks of his own (five inside the 20; two inside the 10), and he can notch a long score as well. The Packers have allowed the fewest touchdowns and the second-fewest yards to tight ends, but it is nevertheless worth noting that the return of Jameis should lead to a return to relevance for Cameron Brate – if not this week, then at least over the next few.

The running backs are not a big part of the pass game for the Bucs, and there is no guarantee that Jacquizz Rodgers will see all the work if Doug Martin is out (last week, Peyton Barber took five carries – and scored two touchdowns – to Quizz’ eight carries), and the Packers have been strong vs the run, while the Bucs have struggled mightily in this area.

The Packers’ offense will also likely be dealing with an injury-shortened backfield once again, with Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery shaping up as unlikely to play this week (Jones did practice in limited fashion on Wednesday, so I’ll provide updated thoughts at the top and bottom of this article on Saturday evening if it looks like this backfield will add a member). Jamaal Williams has lacked elusiveness and an ability to generate yards after contact, and he is taking on a Bucs run D that has the pieces to slow down a mediocre back. But he is also a cheap back who is averaging just under 20 carries per game over the last three weeks, with four targets per game.

Through the air, Brett Hundley has continued to look like he is not quite an NFL quarterback – but to his credit, he has played Minnesota, New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Four of those teams rank in the top eight in pass defense DVOA, and the other two (Detroit and Chicago) rank 14th and 15th. This week, he faces off with a Tampa defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass, and that also ranks 30th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and New Orleans all rank in the top six in this category; Minnesota ranks 13th, and Detroit ranks 20th). Detroit was the best matchup Hundley faced before this week, and he posted 18.0 fantasy points in that game – even without the benefit of a passing touchdown.

When Hundley throws, he has been looking primarily to Davante Adams, who has eight to 10 targets in five of Hundley’s six games under center. With this Packers passing attack designed to throw the ball short (Adams’ average depth of target is only 9.8 yards), Adams has a high floor with the eight or more looks he’ll see.

The best way to attack Tampa is in the slot, where Vernon Hargreaves has allowed the sixth-most yards per coverage snap in the NFL, and where the Bucs have been hit hard the last couple weeks by Mohamed Sanu and Jarvis Landry. Randall Cobb is only reliably seeing four to six targets per game (he has sat in that range in five straight games), and his aDOT of 6.1 is lower than every single qualified receiver in the NFL, but he carries a decent floor, and there will be upside here if the targets unexpectedly spike.

Since Hundley took over at quarterback, Jordy Nelson has become an afterthought, with 5.2 targets per game in his last five outings – but he has also faced Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, and New Orleans in that stretch. He saw 10 targets in Hundley’s first start, and he has big upside if those targets reappear this week. Tampa has allowed the NFL’s most wide receiver receptions and wide receiver yards, while allowing the fourth-most wide receiver touchdowns.

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LEVEL II – Pause For Self-Interpretation

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LEVEL IIIJM’s Interpretation

This is one of my favorite games for DFS this week. On DraftKings, where his price is inexplicably low, Jameis Winston is one of my favorite plays on the slate – and he has the highest floor/ceiling combo among a slew of appealing low-priced quarterbacks. Brett Hundley is also a strong tourney play, as we will have our first look at him in an easy matchup – in a game that is likely to turn into a shootout.

I’m viewing Mike Evans a bit like Michael Thomas these days: a high-floor guy with plenty of ceiling, but with him not necessarily likely to hit that ceiling. Still, this is enough to make him one of the safest plays on the weekend, with the upside acting as a bonus if it hits. DeSean Jackson is also an awesome play – especially with his price sitting so low on both sites. Fundamentally, a guy with the fourth-highest aDOT in the NFL is not a classic “cash game play,” but the matchup is good enough and the workload should be locked-in enough (especially with Cameron Brate in a difficult matchup) that I would feel comfortable with DeSean in any format. I would also feel comfortable with Jameis, Evans, and DeSean on the same team – expecting close to 40 pass attempts, and expecting these two receivers to be the main beneficiaries of that volume.

I’m not pulled toward the Bucs’ backfield, but I do see a clear case for Jacquizz Rodgers if you think the work will be there. The Packers’ backfield is more appealing, as we can likely lock in Jamaal Williams for 18+ carries and three or four catches. He’ll need a touchdown or a broken play to really pay off, but this type of workload is always nice to lock in at his price.

I’m fine with Davante Adams in cash and tourneys, even with his price rising; his workload has been guaranteed for a couple months now, and his matchup could not be better. Cobb is a viable salary-saver in all formats (though his chances of hitting upside are slim, without an unpredictable jump in targets), while Jordy has a low floor, but he has monster tourney upside if his usage spikes in this spot – and I’m guessing ownership will be enticingly low.

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

AutoMattek Absolutes

Jamaal Williams

Williams is a little bit more up in the air right now because Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery could both potentially play, which would of course render him unusable. Williams would be the best $/point play of the entire week if both of them were to miss as he has a better team total than Drake and played 100% of the RB snaps last week with both of them out. He also has a great matchup against the 30th DVOA ranked Bucs who have allowed the eight-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. Jones and Montgomery both did not practice on Wednesday, which leads me to believe both are not on track to play and that the team is fine turning over the reigns to Williams again for another week, in which case you simply have to play him in cash games, and I think it even makes sense to go overweight on him in tournaments in this spot.

The Reid Option

Brett Hundley vs TB ($5100 DK, $6400 FD, $10,800 FDRAFT) – You see, unlike my good friend and resident sock-eyed salmon Davis Mattek, I know when it’s #HundleyWeek. And, my friends, the time is now. This isn’t a chase of his sick fantasy performance on SNF in Pittsburgh; a blown coverage and a screen pass taken to the hole are far from predictive of future performance. More indicative is that his 14.97 DK point average over his first five starts has come against four top-15 teams in adjusted fantasy points vs QBs, three of which were top-5 units. This week he gets a home game against the Buccaneers, a squad that ranks 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Most importantly for the skittish Hundley, the Bucs’ pass rush is the worst in football; their 4.2% adjusted sack rate is .5% lower than the second-worst team. There’s a gaggle of economy-brand QBs available this week, but none of them are worthy of their own hashtag week like my boy Hundley.

Jameis Winston @ GB ($5600 DK, $7300 FD, $11,500 FDRAFT) – Famous Jameis has started and finished six games this season, and in those games he’s averaged 298.7 yards per game, hitting the 300-yard bonus four times. Winston figures to take advantage of a Packers D that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA and has allowed the fifth-most passing yards to villain QBs. I’ll be honest with you – I like the idea of rostering a legit NFL quarterback with strong weapons instead of the shabby NFL fringe others will play (NOT including Brett Hundley obviously) for just a couple hundred bucks more.

Jamaal Williams vs TB ($4700 DK, $5700 FD, $10,200 FDRAFT) – It’s possible that either Aaron Jones or Ty Montgomery makes it back this week, in which case there’s a whole lot less jam in Williams’ doughnut. If, however, these two can’t hang in Week 13, Williams is a wealth of cheap volume on an otherwise squalid slate for running backs. Sure, the kid’s been about as efficient as the US Postal Service, but he’s averaging 22.7 touches and 4.0 targets per game over the past three weeks while playing 88% of the team’s backfield snaps. That’ll play at $4700 on DK on a WR-centric slate.

Davante Adams vs TB ($6500 DK, $6500 FD, $13,400 FDRAFT) – You know how when you get married, you stop looking at other women and only have eyes for your wife? Well that’s what has happened with Brett Hundley and Adams ever since they shacked up; Adams has been given 8.5 targets per game and a 40% market share of Green Bay’s air yards since Hundley took over the QB duties. Adams also has a choice matchup against the Bucs’ secondary, a unit that has added 13.3 fantasy points per game to opposing WR crews’ averages – and specifically against CB Robert McClain, who’s allowed an egregious .41 fantasy points per route run. In case you’re worried about touchdown equity, Adams also ranks 2nd in the NFL in both Red Zone targets (19) and RZ receptions (12). Also … I know you still look at other women, you scoundrel.

Cameron Brate @ GB ($2900 DK, $5000 FD, $5300 FDRAFT) – In the classic Robert Zemeckis film Cast Away, Chuck and Kelly are in a loving relationship when Chuck’s plane goes down over the Pacific and he gets stranded on a remote island for five years. When he returns, he goes to see Kelly (who thought he was dead) at her home, even though he knows she’s since married another man. While her husband and daughter sleep, Kelly and Chuck kiss passionately in the rain, but ultimately realize they can’t be together anymore.

Obviously, it’s just like the story of Jameis and Cameron. They once shared a deep connection – in the first eight games of the season with Jameis Winston, Brate averaged 4.4 receptions on 6.3 targets for 57.9 yards and .5 touchdowns per game – but then Jameis went down, and no one knew if he’d come back. And this week, miraculously, he has returned. Even if they can’t be together long-term I’m banking on Jameis and Cameron rekindling their passion in Week 13, if only just for old times’ sake.

DraftKings NFL Expert Survey

What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?

Stevietpfl: Jameis Winston and Mike Evans – Winston is projected to play this weekend, and with the return of Winston, means the return of Mike Evans. The Packers have allowed at least one passing touchdown in 11 straight games, and they’re 22nd in DVOA against the pass. Green Bay is 30th in DVOA against WR1 this season, and allowing 88 recieving yards per game to opposing WR1’s.

Who will you be most overweight on compared to the field and why?

Stevietpfl: Mike Evans – He’s burned me a lot this season, and he’s burned a lot of people in great matchups lately. With that said, Winston loves to target him, and he has a fantastic matchup against Green Bay this weekend.

Meansy53: Jamaal Williams – Not only does the price not take into account his projected workload, but he also finally gets a decent matchup. The past two weeks he has faced Pittsburgh (fourth ranked defense according to DVOA) and Baltimore (top defense according to DVOA). However, in Week 13, the Packers face a Bucs defense that ranks 30th in DVOA.

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