RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 14
Raiders at Chiefs
Vegas-Implied Total: Chiefs 25.75, Raiders 21.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Chiefs Run D – 30th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O – 10th DVOA / 19th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D – 24th DVOA / 23rd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Raiders Pass O – 10th DVOA / 17th Yards per pass attempt
Raiders Run D – 19th DVOA / 13th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O – 5th DVOA / 2nd Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D – 32nd DVOA / 27th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Chiefs Pass O – 8th DVOA / 4th Yards per pass attempt
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LEVEL I – The Research
Amari Cooper has been cleared from his concussion, but as of Wednesday night, he still needs to recover from his ankle injury in order to see the field. On the front end of the week, it seems likely that Cooper will take the field, though he will obviously need to get in a practice or two late in the week in order to confirm that. Thankfully, this game kicks off early, so we’ll have word on this an hour and a half before kickoff, at latest.
This situation takes on added significance this week, given what Amari Cooper did the last time these teams faced: 11 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns. Typically, this would be a good spot to say, “Remember that this is a division game, and common opponents rarely get burned in the same way twice in the same season. Bob Sutton will surely come up with a plan this week to try to slow down Cooper.” This would almost always be true, but the Chiefs have been without a plan for a while now…and unless the suspension gets overturned before the weekend, the Chiefs will also be without All Pro corner Marcus Peters this week. You’re probably aware that I have less respect for Peters as a cover corner than most (Peters’ reputation is built on his playmaking – but this should not be confused with him being a shutdown force as a cover corner), but there is no denying that the loss of their best player in the secondary will have an adverse effect on an already reeling Chiefs pass defense. The Chiefs rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, and they have allowed the seventh-most catches, the second-most yards, and the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers. If Amari is healthy this week, expect him to see seven to 10 targets, as he has in each of his last three healthy games (following his 19-target game against the Chiefs); he can only be expected to catch about half of his targets (the Chiefs are allowing a completion rate to wide receivers of only 56.7%, and Cooper has caught a pathetic 49.4% of his looks this year), but this still brings upside for a 100-yard game, with additional upside if the looks spike again.
Michael Crabtree has seen seven to 11 targets in five of his last six games (excluding the game in which he got ejected). He has a lower ceiling for explosive yardage than Cooper has, but he is a better bet for a touchdown; since Week 1, Crabtree has six targets inside the 10-yard-line, while Cooper has three.
Jared Cook has the toughest matchup vs a KC defense that has allowed the third-fewest receptions in the NFL to tight ends.
Derek Carr has really failed to get in sync all season, but the Chiefs are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which makes this a good spot for him to get on track. The Chiefs are more dangerous at home, but with no pass rush and no Marcus Peters, the fans at Arrowhead shouldn’t be enough to scare you away if you like Carr this week.
The Raiders’ backfield is difficult to get a read on, for me. After keeping Marshawn Lynch to 16 or fewer touches in eight consecutive games, the Raiders gave him the ball 29 times two weeks ago, and 19 times last week. I’m hesitant to call this a trend, as it would not be surprising if he suddenly drops to 12 or 14 touches without warning. But if he does see the work again (which is likely in a “must win” game for Oakland), the Chiefs rank 30th in DVOA against the run, and they rank 19th in yards allowed per carry.
Kansas City has consistently shown an ability to keep pace with teams that score against them, as five of their six losses have been losses of seven or fewer points. But they have shown an inability to put up points until forced to do so. As such, Chiefs players would be optimally played with Raiders players on the same roster. You could capture a 20-point game from Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, or even Kareem Hunt without the Raiders putting up points, but your chances of capturing one of these games go way up if the Raiders are scoring points as well.
This is a good matchup for Tyreek Hill, who will be taking on an Oakland secondary that struggles with speedy pass catchers. He has exactly six to eight targets in all but three games this year, so unless this turns into a shootout, you will need Hill to catch one of his deep passes or turn one of his short targets into a big play.
Travis Kelce is the safest player in this game, on either side of the ball, with seven or more targets in all but three games this year, and with 14 red zone targets (ranking 11th in the NFL). The Raiders are a bottom eight tight end defense.
Kareem Hunt has a decent matchup vs a Raiders team that ranks middle of the pack in both DVOA and yards allowed per carry. Hunt has only eight carries inside the 10-yard-line this year (for perspective: 27 running backs have more such looks), as the Chiefs have struggled to march close to the end zone. He’ll likely need a long score or an unusual “close to the end zone” carry to pay off in a big way, but he should get his usual 15 to 18 carries and four or five targets.
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LEVEL II – Pause For Self-Interpretation
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LEVEL III – JM’s Interpretation
Because Michael Crabtree hasn’t topped 83 yards this year, and because Amari can’t be counted on for more than 10 targets, and can’t be counted on to catch more than five of those passes, I’ll likely have less interest in Crabtree and Cooper than others will have. If I approached DFS differently – for example, if I built 150 lineups each week using a lineup builder, and I tried to narrow things down to my “15 or 20 favorite wide receivers” for my player pool – I would definitely have these two in the mix. But if I’m looking to narrow things down to my four to six favorite wide receivers on the slate, for a single-lineup or limited-lineup approach (which is what I almost always do), these two probably won’t make the cut for me. I definitely like the spot, though; the floor (especially on Crabtree) is nice, and the upside (especially on Cooper) is evident. There are simply some guys I feel have a better shot at hitting their upside. The same goes for Carr – though, again: you could definitely look at this spot with a different mindset and feel perfectly happy settling on any of these three.
Marshawn Lynch shapes up as a still-strong point-per-dollar play if he sees 16 to 20 carries and two or three catches once again this week. Because we are still sort of guessing on his usage, I’m not comfortable going here in cash.
The same can be said for Kareem Hunt (not a guy I’m gravitating toward in cash), though it won’t surprise me if Hunt pops off for one more big game before this season is over. That’s just not going to be the likeliest scenario, given the Chiefs’ issues this year getting close to the end zone.
Tyreek Hill is always a boom-or-bust play, but this sets up as a potential “boom” spot if you feel like rolling the dice. He’s an especially strong piece in a game stack if you think Carr and his receivers post a big day, as that’s the sort of setup in which Hill gets used more heavily/aggressively, and is more likely to land on the high end of his range. In this scenario, Alex Smith would evolve into a strong play as well.
Travis Kelce is viable in all formats. He’s the one guy in this game I feel entirely comfortable with – and while there is great value at tight end this week, I would certainly be fine finding Kelce on my team if I can fit him.
To add another layer to all this: while none of these guys (outside of Kelce) interest me as a “core piece of a single-entry approach,” this is one of the best spots on the week for a full game stack. This is a game both teams need (the winner takes an inside track on the division crown and a home playoff game; the loser becomes unlikely to land a playoff spot at all), and as such, we could see the aggressiveness ramp up as the game moves along. Teams can live with an important loss far more easily if they feel they were aggressive in pursuit of the win – and as such, most good coaches are willing to open things up a bit in games such as this one. If that happens, we could easily see a similar setup to the first time these teams played (a 31-30 Oakland win), with Cooper and Crabtree combining for 20+ targets, and with Tyreek Hill rising to nine or 10 looks on the Kansas City side. These guys don’t top my list in cash, or in a single-entry approach. But this game is a good one to stack if you want to take on a slightly lower floor in order to chase first place in a tourney.
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
The Reid Option
Michael Crabtree ($6700 DK, $7100 FD, $11,300 FDRAFT) and Amari Cooper @ KC ($5800 DK, $7000 FD, $11,300 FDRAFT) – Marcus Peters is suspended. Derrelle Revis is older than sand. Kenneth Acker gets burned harder than Davis Mattek’s Thanksgiving turkey. It’s gonna be a field day for one of these Raider wideouts (I never can tell which one), but I’ll be alternating ownership between them in my GPP lineups, likely with a slant to Amari due to his nice price discount.
Travis Kelce vs OAK ($7400 DK, $8000 FD, $13,300 FDRAFT) – With Gronk off the slate and Ertz doubtful, Kelce’s projection dwarfs that of any other TE on the Main Slate. We won’t get the ownership scarcity we got last week after he went HAM, but there are plenty of other spots we can differentiate – including the aforementioned 2-TE construction on DK and FantasyDraft.
Automattek Absolutes
That’s right, the same Alex Smith that had one of the worst five-game stretches of his career is the very first player being mentioned in this week’s Absolutes. It is possible that I could be falling victim to what Evan Silva always says on the #Swolecast: “whatever happened last week is what the public is on this week”. It is certainly true that Smith is not going to have a 70-yard run this week, and that 40 DK points might be the most that he will ever score in a game; hell, he probably only projects for half of that this week. All of those caveats put out there, I still think it is pretty clear that Smith is a phenomenal play this week. The offense has really shifted away from using Kareem Hunt like a workhorse. In a tight, high scoring game last week, Smith threw the ball 33 times and Hunt had only nine carries. Andy Reid might not be at the top of his game, but Smith is certainly at the helm of this offense. Per Chris Raybon from 4for4: “Since Week 4, Alex Smith accounts for a Russell Wilson-like 82.2% of the Chiefs’ offensive yardage and all 17 of their offensive TDs.”
It is this matchup that makes Smith a superior play (or at least stick out compared to similarly priced options around him). The Raiders defense, and their pass defense in particular, are historically bad. They rank 32nd in total defensive DVOA and 32nd in pass defense DVOA. They have one singular interception on the year, they allow the fourth-most net adjusted yards per attempt and are tied for the seventh-most yards allowed per play. This is just an overall bad defensive unit playing against a Chiefs team that has to win to have any shot of making the playoffs. Smith is responsible for 24 of the team’s 30 total offensive touchdowns and with a team total approaching 26 points, that suggests slightly over a 2-touchdown projection with massive yardage upside against this bad Raiders defense.
Kelce is just clearly the best tight end play of the week and when looking at all of the plays at WR/RB/TE, he is honestly the best $6.5K to $7K player of the bunch. He is in the top 20 of all players in Weighted Opportunity Ranking as well as in total Air Yards. He has the best target share numbers of any tight end and even better than some WR1s that we have been using in daily fantasy. The matchup against the historically bad Raiders defense is simply the icing on the cake for Kelce as he has been able to produce in both tough and easy matchups this year. There is simply not a player in the NFL that can handle him in single coverage and with the deep threat of Tyreek Hill, opposing defenses often put him in that position.