RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 17
Panthers at Falcons
Vegas-Implied Total: Falcons 25.25, Panthers 21.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Falcons Run D – 30th DVOA / 20th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O – 10th DVOA / 10th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D – 19th DVOA / 13th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Panthers Pass O – 16th DVOA / 23rd Yards per pass attempt
Panthers Run D – 7th DVOA / 17th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O – 12th DVOA / 7th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D – 7th DVOA / 22nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Falcons Pass O – 9th DVOA / 5th Yards per pass attempt
______
LEVEL I – The Research
Atlanta – in a must-win game, at home – has surprisingly been installed as a four-point favorite over a Carolina team that has looked better than them for much of the season. Carolina is locked into a playoff spot, but they still have plenty to play for, as an unlikely Minnesota loss in the early games will open the door for Carolina to nab a first-round bye, and even if the Vikings win, the Panthers will enter this game with a shot at the NFC South title (and a home playoff game in the first round) with a win and some help from the Buccaneers.
Of course, for DFS, we care less about who wins this game and more about the fact that each team will be trying their hardest to win, and each team has a quality offense that can put up points in a hurry. (Each team also has an inconsistent offense that can disappoint in a big way – which will need to be factored in.)
When it comes to “players who sometimes disappoint in a big way,” there is no one who tops the list in the way that Cam Newton does. After I got on board with him as a cash game play last week (for the first time since his previous game against Tampa), he must have assumed I had played him in cash games myself, as he went out there and posted another disappointing game in a premium spot – a game that would have been far uglier had he not scored on a fumble with under one minute remaining. In his last five games, Cam has thrown the ball 25, 31, 25, 27, and 28 times. He has rushed the ball 14, 14, 11, six, and nine times. In three consecutive ‘must-win’ games, Cam has reached double-digit rushes, and he should be expected to reach double-digit rushes once again. His inconsistency will always make him a difficult guy to pull the trigger on in cash games – where we should be looking for both a high floor and a high ceiling – but with Cam, you are essentially rostering a “number two running back on a run-heavy team,” and any passing points he picks up are bonus. Across his last four games, his points generated from passing have been (roughly) 5 / 26 / 8 / 15. Atlanta has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to QBs, aided by the third-most rushing yards allowed to QBs this year.
The Falcons have also allowed the most receptions in the NFL to running backs, which plays nicely to this offense that has fed recent target counts to Christian McCaffrey of four, seven, four, six, and five. The Panthers are unlikely to throw the ball more than 25 to 28 times, so a spiked-volume game is not worth predicting, but CMC should see eight or nine carries and five or six targets in a quality matchup. Jonathan Stewart will grab the rest of the work in the backfield, though he has topped 11 carries only once in his last four games, and he has exactly one target each game in that stretch.
Atlanta presents an average matchup for both wide receivers and tight ends. Devin Funchess has seen only four targets in back-to-back games, and he has topped seven targets only once in his last eight contests. Greg Olsen dropped to six targets last week after seeing 12 the week before. With it safe to assume Cam will be held under 30 pass attempts, and with it safe to assume Christian McCaffrey will grab around seven looks of his own, we should expect around six or seven targets apiece for these two – which is enough to make each guy viable at his price, in this matchup, but not enough to make either guy stand out. With Damiere Byrd now on Injured Reserve, Brenton Bersin and Kaelin Clay will pick up the slack. Neither guy can be projected for more than two or three targets.
Julio Jones has continued to disappoint in the touchdown department this season, with only three scores on the year, but he ranks third in the NFL in receiving yards and 10th in receptions, while ranking second in percentage share of team air yards. Although Julio has underperformed for expectations this year, he has still consistently posted strong raw scores; this week, he’s taking on a Carolina secondary that has allowed the fourth-most receptions and the sixth-most yards to the wide receiver position. Only seven teams have allowed more touchdowns to wideouts than the Panthers have allowed.
When one receiver is grabbing 44.32% of his team’s air yards, there is not going to be a ton of work (or upside) available for the ancillary pieces. Mohamed Sanu has seen recent target counts of six, five, eight, five, and nine, but his work close to the line of scrimmage has left him with only two games in his last eight north of 43 yards. His early-season scoring binge has left his DraftKings price higher than the usage justifies, though his price has dropped to a point on FanDuel where he can be said to be appropriately priced (though without a ton of upside to bring to the table). Taylor Gabriel has not topped 20 yards since Week 10. Austin Hooper has not topped 50 yards since Week 1.
The Panthers have been tougher on running backs – facing the second-fewest rush attempts in the NFL, and allowing the fourth-fewest yards. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have finally gotten involved in the pass game again across the last two weeks (14 total targets between the two of them during this stretch), but with Coleman healthy, they have also returned to the split workload that has not yielded a truly usable DFS game with both guys healthy since Weeks 2 through 4. Each guy is talented enough to post a strong game on limited touches – but especially with Carolina allowing the second-fewest opponent plays per game in the NFL, that’s what you will have to expect if you want to roster one of these guys: a strong score on limited touches, rather than a strong score supported by volume.
______
LEVEL II – Pause For Self-Interpretation
.
.
.
.
______
LEVEL III – JM’s Interpretation
While Cam has disappointed “for Cam” a number of times this year, there is no other quarterback in the NFL who can be rostered as if he’s a 10 to 14 carry running back, with passing points as a bonus. This gives Cam a high enough floor to be considered in all formats, and it makes him an excellent tourney play.
A similar sentiment can be pinned to Julio Jones. Julio has disappointed “for Julio” a number of times this year, but even without the touchdowns to boost his upside, he is seeing enough consistent targets at this point to be considered one of the most workload-secure wide receivers, in a great matchup, with tons of talent behind him. He has one of the highest floors among wide receivers this week, and he carries one of the highest ceilings as well. The massive amount of value available this week at the running back position also makes it easy to fit Julio onto a strong top-to-bottom roster.
Everyone else in this game is “tourney only” for me, and I likely won’t have much personal interest in any of these other guys, but CMC carries nice upside in this matchup, while Funchess and Olsen also have an outside shot at justifying their respective price tags. The ancillary pieces in the Falcons’ passing attack are tough sells from an “upside” perspective, but the opposite can be said for the running backs – who are not remotely safe, but each guy carries 20+ point upside even on limited touches if you want to chase that upside in a tough matchup in tourneys.
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
Automattek Absolutes
The Panthers have clinched a playoff berth but if they win and the Saints lose against the Bucs, they could win the division. I suppose that if you were being a stickler, it is not exactly a must-win game, but the Panthers will be trying to win the game for 4 quarters. Olsen saw his volume scaled back last week with only 6 targets after a 12-target explosion against Green Bay but in a competitive spot where we would expect Cam to play better than he did last week, $5,600 is a fair price. Coach Ron Rivera also did give an explanation on Olsen’s lack of involvement last week stating, “I think two weeks ago we used him a lot against Green Bay. That really worked out. This past week, they spent a little bit more time trying to cover him up.” I am likely to take a much cheaper tight end in cash games because there will be guys who are filling in that project for expanded roles, but Olsen is definitely viable.
FanDuel Expert Survey
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
TheSeige: Christian McCaffrey and Julio Jones – This game has the most on the line, with the Panthers playing to potentially get a first-round bye and the Falcons in a win-to-get-in situation. Both players get dream matchups on turf ,so I expect both players to be running up and down the field.