RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 6

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2016-10-17 01:00:44

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

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JMToWin’s NFL Edge

Panthers at Saints

Vegas-Implied Total: Panthers 28.0, Saints 25.0

KEY MATCHUPS:

Saints Run D – 30th DVOA / 26th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O – 5th DVOA / 6th Yards per carry

Saints Pass D – 26th DVOA / 27th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Panthers Pass O – 22nd DVOA / 11th Yards per pass attempt

Panthers Run D – 6th DVOA / 4th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O – 8th DVOA / 26th Yards per carry

Panthers Pass D – 22nd DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Saints Pass O – 13th DVOA / 18th Yards per pass attempt

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Two years ago in the Superdome, Cam Newton threw for 226 yards and three touchdowns, while adding another 83 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

Last year in the Superdome, Cam threw for 331 yards and five touchdowns, while adding another 49 yards on the ground.

You have read me enough by this point to know that when we encounter the most obvious spots on the weekend, I am more likely to point out the reasons for caution than to simply tell you how great of a matchup it is (after all, there are no “sure things” in the NFL, and while it’s easy to find articles that tell you how great a play is, it’s often far more beneficial to see some counterpoints and truly challenge your thinking before you blindly jump on board with the chalk), but the closest I can come to preaching caution here is: “Make sure you don’t burn your popcorn, as you’ll want to have it ready for this game.”

This week, Jonathan Stewart should return to the backfield alongside Cam, and he will likely go overlooked, as he’s a guy no one ever really wants to target. Before you overlook him yourself, however, I would like to remind you what Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman did to this “defense” a couple weeks back. I’ll also point out that last year in the Superdome, J-Stew picked up 82 rushing yards and a touchdown, along with three catches for 31 yards. The year before? He racked up 155 yards and a touchdown on the ground. This is a great spot for Stewart if he makes it back onto the field (and if he surprisingly fails to find the field this week, Cameron Artis-Payne should be heavily involved in his place).

The other guy who has achieved a lot of success in the Superdome over the last couple years is Greg Olsen, who went 9-129-0 last year on 12 targets and went 10-72-1 on 11 targets the year before.

Last year, with Kelvin Benjamin out, Ted Ginn used the fast turf in New Orleans to speed to a 5-80-2 day of his own (with typical Ginn inefficiency – racking up those numbers on 10 targets), and while he makes for an interesting tourney option this week, the more obvious place to look is Kelvin Benjamin, whose price continues to rise in spite of no big games since Week 2. I’ve tried to figure out a predictive rhyme or reason to the production the Saints have allowed. In Week 4, Dontrelle Inman scorched them for 120 yards from the slot while Hunter Henry put up 61 yards at tight end and no other receivers topped 50 yards; in Week 3, no Falcons wideouts topped 35 yards (with Devonta Freeman leading the way with 55 receiving yards); in Week 2, the Giants had three receivers who topped 85 yards, with Sterling Shepard leading the way in the slot for 117 yards, followed by Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham on the outside at 91 and 86 yards respectively; and in Week 1, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both topped 85 yards, on the outside. Basically, it seems the easiest assessment is: “Whatever an offense decides to try against the Saints, that’s what will work.” This week, the Panthers should primarily “try” Greg Olsen, Kelvin Benjamin, and Jonathan Stewart.

Making this matchup even better is that the Panthers are suddenly bad – legitimately so – against the pass. I fought this reality one week longer than I should have, as I was one of the only sharps not on Julio Jones a couple weeks ago (for what it’s worth: the Panthers were still ranked 7th in pass defense DVOA heading into that game – which reinforces some of the thoughts we discussed regarding DVOA at the top of this week’s NFL Edge), but I did use Jameis Winston and Mike Evans on the Monday-Thursday slate against the Panthers, and I’ll happily take some Saints passing components this week as well.

I do feel we get ourselves in trouble the moment we pretend we “know” where Drew Brees is going with the ball – as if we have not learned our lesson from about 10 years of this. In the same way the Bengals’ backfield shifts on us the moment people start saying one guy is “clearly separating himself from the other,” the Saints’ target distribution seems to shift the moment one guy appears to have emerged as the go-to guy. On the season, Brandin Cooks has 32 targets, Michael Thomas has 31, Coby Fleener has 28, and Willie Snead – in spite of missing a game – has 18. Three other guys (Travaris Cadet, Mark Ingram, and Brandon Coleman) have between 15 and 19 targets as well. For absolutely no scientific reason whatsoever, this seems like the sort of game in which Brandin Cooks will reemerge as the “main target” for a week, though all three of the main wide receivers (Cooks, Snead, and Thomas), as well as Fleener, find themselves in a good matchup – with the obvious caveat that only one or two of them are likely to land inside a big game. This uncertainty makes all of these guys tourney-only plays for me, in spite of the solid matchup – and I am completely fine using Brees naked in cash games or even tourneys.

We’ll end this game on a slightly less exciting note by looking at the Saints’ backfield. Mark Ingram has received 19 and 24 touches the last two games, with – more importantly – six and seven targets. Add this to his depressed price, and he makes for an excellent tournament play. But factor in the matchup against a still-tough Panthers run defense, and add a dash of uncertain workload due to Sean Payton Shenanigans, and you get a play that is riskier than it really should be. Ingram has excellent point-per-dollar upside this weekend, but his floor is low as well.

Not only does this game boast the highest Over/Under on the weekend, but it is also expected to remain fairly close – creating the opportunity for a back-and-forth contest, and opening up a strong “game stack” that can carry us to the top of the leaderboards in Week 6.

Guys I like in cash games: Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, Drew Brees

Guys I like in tourneys: All of the above, plus: Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas, Coby Fleener

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.

FanDuel – Notorious’ Cheat Sheet

Tight End

DraftKings – ChrisGimino’s Correlations

Favorite Saints vs. Panthers Correlation Play

Cam Newton / Greg Olsen / Brandin Cooks

Greg Olsen’s target count this year are as follows: 9-8-10-13-13. Only three humans and one Antonio Brown have more targets in 2016. I want to use Olsen against the Saints purely on volume. It’s hard to imagine them leaving their corners to fend for themselves against the mismatched Benjamin, which should translate to a lot of zone coverage that Olsen figures to destroy. Even if I’m wrong about the “how” Olsen gets it done vs. New Orleans, there are plenty of other means for him to come through than volume. He’s a threat in the red zone and a threat for a big play at any moment.

As for Cam, he should return to form in a big way. I don’t expect the concussion issue to change his game and even if it did the Saint secondary would be the ideal unit to become a pocket passer against. His usual upside is in play. Brandin Cooks is the opposing WR1 to the Cam/Olsen pairing. With the Panthers depleted secondary, I expect the Saints to scheme a way to get him behind the defense. He’s an explosive playmaker and worthy of our GPP lineups when we see weaker, slower competition.