RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 6

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate. Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner. Thoughts from other RotoGrinders Premium contributors are also included.

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Buccaneers at Cardinals

Vegas-Implied Total: Buccaneers 23.5, Cardinals 21.0

KEY MATCHUPS:

Cardinals Run D – 7th DVOA / 6th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O – 16th DVOA / 19th Yards per carry

Cardinals Pass D – 24th DVOA / 15th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Buccaneers Pass O – 8th DVOA / 9th Yards per pass attempt

Buccaneers Run D – 6th DVOA / 7th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O – 32nd DVOA / 32nd Yards per carry

Buccaneers Pass D – 27th DVOA / 24th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Cardinals Pass O – 26th DVOA / 18th Yards per pass attempt

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In spite of the low total here, this game has sneaky shootout potential, with the Cardinals ranking first in passing play percentage and the Buccaneers ranking fifth. Furthermore, each of these defenses filters action toward the air – with a strong run-stopping unit and a poor pass-stopping unit. This creates a classic situation for a low total to lead to lower ownership than a game deserves.

While the Cardinals’ power blocking scheme is a better for for Adrian Peterson, he is taking over the Chris Johnson role, not the David Johnson role. This means that we cannot count on him for catches, but instead need him to rack up his points through yardage and touchdowns, behind an offensive line that ranks 30th in adjusted line yards, vs a defense that ranks sixth in run defense DVOA and seventh in yards allowed per carry.

Meanwhile – given the fundamentally pass-heavy nature of this offense, the matchup, and the likely back-and-forth nature of this game – Andre Ellington remains more in play than most will assume. The arrival of Peterson throws enough of a wrench into things that I won’t be targeting Ellington in DraftKings cash games this week, but he still carries a target projection of eight to 10, and he does have four targets in the red zone, with one coming inside the 10.

Carson Palmer ranks second in the NFL in passing yards – quite a bit behind Brady at number one, but quite a bit ahead of Alex Smith at number three – and he has thrown the ball 44 or more times in all but one game this year. Last week, he fell nine yards shy of his fourth consecutive 300-yard game, and he was a J.J. Nelson goal-line fumble away from a second touchdown – all in an early start on a West to East game. With his volume, his weapons, and the matchup, I’m still comfortable firing him up in cash games and tourneys. Tampa ranks 32nd in adjusted sack rate and 31st in passing yards allowed per game.

Playing time has been a mess to predict for the Cardinals’ wide receivers, but here are the things we know: Larry Fitzgerald ranks fourth in the NFL in targets per game, and John Brown has seen at least seven targets in every healthy game.

Fitz is a tough one here, as his routes are more conducive to cash games than to tourneys, but his inconsistency has left him out of cash game consideration. I like him more on FanDuel, where his price is way too low and his red zone usage (three targets inside the 10-yard-line, and an NFL-leading 10 targets and six catches inside the 20) gives him upside. He’s a bit tougher to pay up for on DraftKings, but he does have blowup potential. Meanwhile, Brown is an intriguing tourney play at likely minuscule ownership. Brown has seen targets in 48 career games and has topped 100 yards only four times – but he has hit 70 yards in a quarter of his games, and he has scored with equal frequency. At his price and at minimal ownership, he’s definitely a guy to think about in large-field tourneys.

The Bucs’ backfield is also one I’ll be avoiding, even with Doug Martin looking excellent in his return to the field. As road underdogs against a tough run defense, with very little pass game involvement, there are just too many ways Martin could crater your lineup. The upside is there, but I can get the same upside with a far higher floor in other spots.

The really interesting conversation has to circle around the passing offense, where Mike Evans will be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, and where DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries will draw winnable matchups against Justin Bethel and Tyrann Mathieu.

Here are some notable “alpha wide receiver” numbers against the Cardinals this year:

T.Y. Hilton: 4-49-0
Dez Bryant: 2-12-1
Pierre Garcon: 4-36-0
Alshon Jeffery: 3-31-0

Meanwhile, numbers two and three receivers have consistently put up respectable games against this defense. We should expect seven or more volatile, but high-upside targets for DeSean – making him a strong tourney option and even a borderline-viable cash game play – with Humphries drawing seven or more short-area targets, making him an excellent point-per-dollar floor play (especially on DraftKings), and a decent salary saver in tourneys. Humphries and DeSean have combined for one total target inside the red zone, with zero inside the 10, while Evans has drawn six and three such looks, and Cameron Brate has drawn six and two such looks. There is an elevated likelihood this week of such looks going to DeSean and/or Humphries, as James Bettcher’s scheme defends the tight end well, but Brate is in play for his scoring upside, as he should be the first place Jameis looks in scoring range if Peterson is shutting down his star wide receiver.

Guys I Like In Cash Games: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Adam Humphries
Guys I Like In Tourneys: Both of the above, plus: John Brown, Andre Ellington, Jameis Winston, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.

Automattek Absolutes by Davis Mattek Article Image

Cameron Brate

Brate leads the tight end position in touchdowns thus far (with three through four games) and it is very clear that any concerns about OJ Howard overtaking his position are unfounded. Brate has played less total snaps than Howard but has been asked to pass block only twice and less than 50% of Howard’s total run blocking snaps. Brate is in there to alleviate pressure on Mike Evans and Desean Jackson. With Patrick Peterson draped on Evans’ this week, I am expecting it to open up even further for Brate and believe he is the best midrange tight end.

Reid Option by Sammy Reid Article Image

Cameron Brate @ ARI ($3900 DK, $5900 FD, $7700 FDRAFT) – The Bucs/Cards game opened with an over/under of 44.5 points, and I think it goes over. Brate has been a prime red zone weapon for the Bucs – he’s tied for the TE lead in Red Zone targets (6) and touchdowns (3) – and should continue those duties this week with Mike Evans likely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson.

Notorious and meansy53 — FanDuel Expert Survey

What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?

Notorious: The passing games in the TB/ARI game. I’m high on both of the offenses in this one, which is why I included it as my sneaky shootout of the week. The Cardinals have not been able to run the ball and Adrian Peterson isn’t going to change that. When a team has a pass-heavy approach, it leads to bigger plays and more clock stoppages, both of which are good for fantasy production. The only player that I don’t like in the passing game here is Mike Evans, who will be shadowed by Patrick Peterson.

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

meansy53: Larry Fitzgerald saw another 10 targets in Week 5, putting him up to fourth most amongst all wide receivers on the season (51). He also has ranked second amongst all wide receivers in market share of red zone opportunities. Yet he is still the 21st most expensive wide receiver on the FanDuel main slate ($6,600). The touchdowns are coming.

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