150 Best Ball Drafts in the books - Chasing a million
Ok, so the journey I began on May 24th- came to an end yesterday, as I wrapped up my 150 best-balls in the DRAFT Milly. As a fun fact, I never multi-tabled and only Auto-Drafted one as I had to leave. I made some notes on odd draft scenarios when they arose, but for the most part I grinded these out one by one. Yes, Im a loser. To be fair – I have been moving – so lots of hotel time to kill with drafts…. But I still need a life.
Here is a breakdown of my draft pick RNG….Until Draft 150, the #1 hole was first or tied for first…..so I didn’t run bad as far as draft position. How about only drafting 4 times from the 7 slot. Odd.
My strategy was pretty standard, in that I searched for Stack where possible but not reaching at an absurd rate to force them. I tended to go RB heavy and chase WR late. I tried to get as many in as possible before Silva published his 150, as I thought there was a clear edge to be had. I preferred Saquon to CMC.
It took me a week or two before I realized that I wanted to be all-in on Tyreek (aka TyFreak) while we hadn’t heard a ruling on his suspension. My logic being that iF he gets suspended, I’m out a few $25 drafts….. if he didn’t get suspended, a better chance at a milly. Lets gambool! I ended up with him 28 times (19%). That being said, given my exposure, once he was cleared I basically avoided him….so most of these I took pretty late as far as draft position. The latest being .on May 27th, I got Tyreek at 11.3 as my 6th WR – LOL. Fun fact, my 7th WR in that same draft was MVS in the 14th round!!!! Wow have things changed.
Top Exposures by Position:
Quarterback h3. – Foles (27%), Mahomes (15%) Trubisky (14%) :
My QB ownership looks a little odd at first as I tell you that my #1 owned QB is Nick Foles with 27%. This is largely because I waited on QBs quite a bit and felt that Foles had plenty of value in rounds 15-18 particularly with a new pass-heavy OC. I think you will see I have decent exposure to the Jags passing game in total…although, some of that was betting on Dede Westbrook, some Chris Conley and hoping Marqise Lee being healthier than he is. Oh well….it happens.
Running Back (Edmonds 27%, Ito Smith 23%, James White 23%):
Some tenets to my strategy was Saquon over CMC for the most part, and get the backs who will get volume early. Note- I had the #1 pick 19 times…and I have Saquon in 19 leagues…..not sure it was every time, but definitely was my preferred choice up top. I ended up with CMC on 9 occasions (6%) and Kamara in 8 (6%). I believe Jerry will get Zeke signed before the season, so I got more exposre to him of late once he started sliding to late round 1 – ending up with him in 14 drafts (10%).
I focused on the same set of backups (Edmonds, Judge Ito, Bernard, Jaylen Samuels, Elijah Mcguire – ugh and Darrell Henderson). I love me some Chase Edmonds, not only as a fit to that offense – but believe he has a much higher floor than the other handcuffs. As for the primary starters, I bet big on James White. If he was available in Round 5, I generally took him.
Given the limited receiving options to start the year, I think James White puts up 250 points on Draft this season…..I will take that in Round 5.
My next set of exposure are Marlon Mack (17%) and Melvin Gordon (16%). Obviously, Melvin looks like a bad bet as I was on him early…thinking the Chargers would put up a ton of points this year. Hope he signs before the season, but Im leery of his conditioning regardless. The latest it looks like I got him…….pick 4.9 on August 11. I wonder if he keeps sliding.
From a fade perspective, I am not on Kenyan Drake at all. I got him 3 times out of draft dynamics but took Ballage 16 times, so that’s my view on that backfield. I am fading Miles Sanders for the most part. I am just betting against him vs the field. I may get it wrong, but taking that stand as well. Finally, given my James White ownership, I essentially faded the rest of the Patriots backfield.
Wide Receivers (My overall exposure leader – Taylor Gabriel 60 times, or 40%, Marqise Lee 24%, Davante Parker 23%).
So I am betting on the Bears passing game here with Trubisky and Gabriel (Took him usually round 16) and I also have 13% Allen Robinson. I think the Bears win the NFC this year, so we will see.
As for core receivers, I bet big on Tyreek Hill (19%), Dede Westbrook (19%), M Valdez-Scantling (18%). This was where I was finding extreme draft value. Most of my Tyreek exposure is in Rounds 9-10 and MVS has plenty of exposure when he was going rounds 12-14. Westbrook pairs up nicely with my Foles exposure…so I am pretty happy here. Of the Mega Chalk, I am most exposed to Davante Adams at 9%….proving that I focused on RB early.
For the punts, you see the exposure to Marqise Lee from the first month and lots of Davante Parker. I also took a bunch (195) of Josh Doctson. Someone has to catch the ball in Washington and they will certainly be behind most of the season. If his score can count 1-2 weeks on the season…I will consider it a huge win.
Tight Ends: Irv Smith Jr (29%), Delanie Walker (25%) and George Kittle (14%)
Irv Smith was my go-to 18th round pick. I think he will WAY overperform this draft position. Delanie Walker was a favorite TE2 for me – if he is healthy, he is a complete steal in Round 14 where he went most draft season. George Kittle seems obvious. I was quick to pick him up if he slipped to pick 22 or later. I ended up at 7-8% for both Kelce and Ertz and 11-12 percent for Engram, Henry and Howard. My TE1 is pretty well diversified.
Austin Hooper is one guy that doesn’t make sense to me. Frankly I don’t believe the ADP Draft was constantly showing in the 108 range. I have him 14 times….almost always at pick 130+. He seemed to always be available to a point I couldn’t resist. For the ADP to make sense, are some people drafting him in like the 7th round????? I just don’t get it.
So that’s my 150 drafts in a nutshell. I think I have a few that are pretty strong but health will play a huge factor in the final outcome. I did comb by 150 to find the single draft I like best…. Here we go – from the 3 Hole:
See you on the leaderboard. Piggy.