2-20 NALCS Breakdown
Welcome to my first NALCS breakdown. I’m hungover and I don’t know if this will even be out at a reasonable time, but I appreciate you reading anyway. I definitely didn’t go perfect on my picks again yesterday; however, my lineups were all pretty good. It’s funny how that works.
Let’s get into it:
Match 1 NRG Esports (5-5) vs. Dignitas (3-7):
I’m going to make an effort to be more concise today. Dignitas is not a good team, and their objective stats reflect that. DIG ranks dead last in the league with a 42.9% jungle control. They rank 9th in the league with a 35% dragon control. I agree with the oddsmakers and feel like NRG is going to have their way with this DIG squad. The former world champion Impact (7100) will shine today. Impact has the highest kill participation among NA top laners. I don’t think BillyBoss is a slouch as he actually gave Huni a run for his money, but I think impact is almost a lock to hit the 10+ assist threshold.
My Prediction: NRG win 15-8
Match 2 Immortals (10-0) vs. Renegades (1-9):
Renegades should just forfeit and focus on tomorrow. I think Crumbz is the worst player in the league, and I would love Immortals to draft a team to allow Reignover (7400) to expose the jungle mismatch. Immortals should take it as a loss if they don’t wrap this one up in under 30 minutes, unless they want to have a little fun with this one.
My Prediction: IMT win 17-3 in under 30 minutes.
Match 3 Team SoloMid (7-3) vs. Cloud9 (6-4):
This is probably the most even match on paper, and should be the most viewed match of the day as two fan favorites square off. I have a feeling this one will stay tight from end to end, but TSM will eventually pull out the W. Doublelift (7400) is my favorite player in NA, and I think he will have a good day. He has the best creep score differential among ADC’s today at 11.3.
My Prediction: TSM win 13-9
Match 4 Counter Logic Gaming (6-4) vs. Team Impulse (4-6):
Oddsmakers believe CLG should beat Impulse down and I agree. CLG are defined by their strong objective play, and they are tied for first with Immortas with 71% dragon control. I think CLG control the game from start to finish and win easy.
My Prediction: CLG win 15-6
Match 5 Team Liquid (5-5) vs. Echo Fox (3-7):
Will Echo Fox turn their season around? I don’t think so. I hope everyone continues to drink the Kool-Aid though. Fox is no doubt a better team with Froggen, and it’s hard to use their season long stats as a baseline because they are a totally different team. Oddsmakers believe this will be the highest scoring game of the day, and I think Dardoch (6700) is in line for a monster. He is talented and this is a perfect opportunity to flex his lol prowess.
My Prediction: Liquid win 15-8
Impact (7100) – His 82.5% kill participation speaks for itself. If you apply that to the 15 kills I think the team will get today, then he should get a piece of 12. Probably the best value in the top lane today.
Hauntzer (6600) – Balls is balls. It’s a risky pick as I think C9 get kills today, but his lane matchup is solid and he has the 2nd lowest death percentage among top laners playing today.
Dardoch (6700) – He’s good and he sports the highest kill participation among junglers playing today. I think he’s the best value today in the jungle.
Reignover (7400) – Crumbz is so bad that I am not sure I can express it in writing. It’ll be difficult, but I’d like to have exposure to as many Immortals guys today.
HuHi (7800) – I think he’ll get his share of kills today as Darshan split pushes and CLG win handily.
Bjergsen (7300) – He has the lowest death percentage among today’s Middies. I think he’ll have a good day against Jensen.
Doublelift (7400) – He’s my boy and his aggressive playstyle will hopefully translate into good fantasy production today.
WildTurtle (8600) – He has the highest ceiling of any player today. He legitimately could get 15 kills.
Aphromoo (5900) – Another personal favorite of mine. I like CLG today and he is almost a lock for 10+ assists.
Yellowstar (5400) – It’s hard to pick supports. He ranks 2nd in among supports today in assists, and I believe he provides good value.