2-21 NALCS Picks
Happy Sunday. The matches yesterday did not disappoint. I was right about a couple things yesterday, but I was mostly very wrong. Also, I am officially jumping ship and hopping aboard the Echo Fox bandwagon. While I don’t think they are a top 4 team, they are much better than I originally thought. I am going to have a fair share of Echo Fox today, and I hope that doesn’t come back to bite me in the ass.
Let’s get into it:
Match 1 Counter Logic Gaming (7-4) vs. Renegades (1-10):
I was on the verge of puking in my mouth during the Renegades match yesterday, as they gave Immortals a scare. Crumbz (4800) didn’t look like his usual self while Renegades put up a decent amount of kills. Oddsmakers have CLG as big favorites in this one and I don’t give Renegades much of a chance myself. I will continue to praise CLG’s objective play, where they outshine Renegades across the board. They have an 82% versus 18% first dragon advantage, a 74% versus 28% dragon control, and Renegades rank 2nd to last in terms of jungle control. He is expensive, but I think Aphromoo (6200) is the closest thing to a lock for the 10 assist bonus today.
My Prediction: CLG win 16-6
Match 2 Team SoloMid (7-4) vs. Dignitas (3-8):
Yesterday’s match between TSM and C9 was awesome. I think this is a great bounce back spot for TSM versus this Dignitas team that isn’t very promising. Dignitas is ranked dead last in terms of jungle control, and are worse than TSM in all aspect of objective play. I attempted to pick on them yesterday, but NRG’s team composition did not make for a friendly fantasy environment. There is good news today. TSM like to take part in bloodbaths, ranking 3rd in combined kills per minute. I expect Doublelift (8200) to have a very solid day today. I just hope the game goes long enough to get value.
My Prediction: TSM win 16-7 in just over 30 minutes.
Match 3 Cloud9 (7-4) vs. NRG Esports (6-5):
Cloud9 made a statement yesterday in a win that gave them a share of 2nd place in the standings. I believe that C9 are a better team than NRG. However, I have a gut feeling that NRG find a win today. I don’t have stats to back it up. Cloud9 do have better team stats across the board for the most part. I am going back to the well with some exposure to Impact (5800). Balls had his best game in the NALCS yesterday, and I’ll make him beat me again before I buy in.
My Prediction: NRG win 15-10
Match 4 Team Impulse (4-7) vs. Echo Fox (4-7):
Echo Fox players provide the best value across the board today. I believe their ownership levels will be through the roof. Betting lines support Echo Fox with massive line movement in their favor. I will be on FOX today. Froggen (7200)’s stats since his return have been remarkable and his lane opponent Pirean is not very good. Froggen’s average creep score differential at 10 minutes is the largest in the league with 9.4, while Pirean’s is -2.5.
My Prediction: FOX win 15-8
Match 5 Immortals (11-0) vs. Team Liquid (5-6):
Immortals looked sloppy yesterday. Even though they made some big mistakes, they still controlled the game for the most part. I am hoping yesterday was a wake-up call, and they make a statement today against this Liquid team. I just want revenge on this Liquid team because I rode them into the ground yesterday. I expect this game to be dominated from the start. I expect Immortals bottom lane to put on a show for the people.
My Prediction: Immortals win 18-4
Impact (5800) – It’s risky and I think he will be under owned. However, if NRG can pull off the upset then expect Impact to smash value.
Huni (7400) – I love Huni and I think Lourlo is trash. If we see standard lanes in this matchup, Huni will dismantle his opponent.
Xmithie (7200) – He has the 3rd lowest death percentage among junglers today, and I still don’t respect Crumbz as a player.
Hard (6100) – I wanted to list Reignover because I like all of the Immortals guys today, but I am listing Hard because I believe he will provide solid value today. He has the 2nd highest first blood participation rate among junglers today, and I think his aggression will lead to a solid day.
Froggen (7200) – I mentioned earlier that his stats are insane since his return. He has an excellent matchup, and he is my top value play on the slate.
Huhi (8300) – Alech Ich is a bottom tier mid laner in NA. Huhi ranks 3rd in player damage percentage among mid laners today, and that will hopefully translate into some kills.
Keith (7300) – Keith should provide solid value today. I think he is a safe bet for 7-8 kills.
Doublelift (8200) – I would say WildTurtle, but you save 100 precious dollars with my man Doublelift. I think he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
Aphromoo (6200) – He’s expensive. He is a lock for 10+ assists.
Big (5400) – I expect a big game out of him as I jump on the Echo Fox bandwagon.