2016 Pitchers and Catchers - Toronto Blue Jays
Spring is in the air and pitchers and catchers will be reporting any day now. MLB DFS is unlike any other sport. Variance is high and there is no thing as a guarantee. Mike Trout can go 0 for 5 for negative points while Stephen Drew can 4 for 5 with 2 dongs (home runs). In this series I will take you around the league to identify the pitchers to look for in lineup construction and the ones to target in lineup construction. I will be using advanced statistics known as sabermetrics. If you are new to daily fantasy baseball I strongly suggest learning advanced stats by going to fangraphs., this glossary is a great start. A small breakdown of the bullpen and the home ball park will be provided for further insight.Let’s get rolling:
The Blue Jays were a powerhouse in the 2015 season. They dominated the league in offensive stats as they pushed across 891 runs for the season. To put that into perspective, the Yankees were a distant second place with 764 runs. They boasted a .344 wOBA which was 19 points higher than the second place Astros. The Blue Jays went all out last season for David Price but he has now been shipped to Boston. They also chased after Troy Tulowitzki who will remain on the roster for the 2016 season. Moving away from Coors Field it is safe to say we can expect a down tick in Tulowitzki’s numbers. With a better offense around him I wouldn’t expect too much of a loss. The Blue Jays have ignored the saying of “Defense Wins Championships” and have bought into an offensive powerhouse. The loss of David Price was a huge hit to the pitching staff. I wouldn’t expect to roster Blue Jays pitchers often in the 2016 season, but they may make as good targets.
The 2016 pitching staff is lacking an ace and will require some arms to step up into that role. The Blue Jays as of now do not have that star power. Expect most games to be high scoring and to rarely roster a Blue Jays pitcher.
For the 2015 season Marco Estrada was on the right side of variance. His 3.13 ERA suggests ace level pitching. This can quickly be disposed by his 4.93 xFIP and .216 BABIP. This may be due to his low hard contact rate of 27.2% coming from the use of his cutter. He hadn’t thrown the cutter since 2011. For 2015 he threw the pitch 8% of the time. The cutter is known as a weak contact pitch which may have helped him outperform in 2015. While this may be an X-Factor pitch for Estrada, it is unlikely for him to continue this performance, and he is someone we should target in 2016 and get on the good side of regression.
2016 Pitcher to Capitalize on
While a 5.47 ERA may not be too appetizing, Drew Hutchinson should have some positive regression for the 2016 season. We can expect over one full run regression for 2016 backed by his 4.16 xFIP and 4.07 SIERA in the 2015 season. While Hutchinson won’t be the ace we roster on our lineup, his 19.6 K% backed by his 9.7 SwStr% (a good K% is about 20% and a K% is sustainable when the swinging strike rate is about half) could make him a good GPP play in the right matchup, and possibly a good cash game play.
Ball Park Factor
Using the RG tool found here:”https://rotogrinders.com/pages/ballpark-factors-49556”. We see for seasons held in 2013-2014 the Rogers Center ranked third in runs scored at 1.137, and third in homeruns, 1.387, which is even more of a reason to target Blue Jay hitters and avoid their pitching in 2016
While the starting rotation for the Blue Jays may be in question, their bullpen was ranked fifth in 2015 in SIERA. With a 3.09 SIERA they were one of the best in the league. With the offensive powerhouse of the Blue Jays we can expect some high scoring but close games. This bullpen may want to push us off some opponents as DFS plays, with the Blue Jays weak starting rotation, we can still justify these plays.