A Contrarian's Guide: NBA Cash and Tournament Plays 12/23/2017

Being knowledgeable about projections, DvP, advanced team stats and team news can help enhance your DFS performance and profitability. Throughout the season I’ll have players I’ll focus on from a game stack or team stack perspective, but I’ll also use the projections model, known injury news and team match ups to build my lineups around the more optimal players on the slate. Popularity on those players will be disregarded if that player gives us the highest chance at exceeding value relative to his price point. If they’re questions about players I haven’t mentioned or have decided to fade don’t hesitate to ask. I’ll try to keep the blog neutral the best I can but for the time being my NBA site of choice is DraftKings.

12/23/2017 Back to Back and Injuries
Milwaukee, Charlotte, Brooklyn, Orlando, Washington, Dallas, Atlanta, New Orleans, Miami, LA Clippers, Oklahoma City, Denver, Golden State, Portland and the LA Lakers are on back to backs. They’re no teams on the front end of a back to back.

Probable Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Tyson Chandler, Noah Vonleh, Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard.

Questionable Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard, Treveon Graham, Devin Harris, Dennis Schroder, Shane Larkin, Dion Waiters, Emmanuel Mudiay, Shaun Livingston and Zaza Pachulia.

Doubtful Jonathan Isaac, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Marc Gasol and Justise Winslow.

Out Mike Muscala, Dewayne Dedmon, Marcus Morris, Wesley Johnson, Hassan Whiteside, James Johnson, Goran Dragic, Raul Neto, Stephen Curry, Nemanja Bjelica, Devin Booker, Damian Lillard, Danny Green and Pau Gasol

Charts and Model

Average FPPG per player for the teams playing tonight.

Looks like PG’s and C’s might be popular tonight. On a 12 game slate ownership should be spread out enough to differentiate from the field. Finding value plays at these positions could benefit you in the long run. I’d mainly watch out for Charlottes injury news on Kemba Walker and Dwight Howard. Michael Carter-Williams and Johnny O’Bryant III could be on the radar if they miss tonight

Average FPPG by position.

The salary and FPPG Correlation chart suggests that players between $7,000-$9,000 salary range represent the most consistent or safe plays for tonight. Some guys on my radar in particular on Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic.

Below is the embedded spreadsheet. I’m unable to adjust the width any further so I’ve added a second name column at the end to help keep track of the player your viewing. I’ll try to figure something else out but for now this is the best I’m able to do.

Tonight’s Stacks & Combos

Kris Dunn, Robin Lopez & David Nwaba $15,300 combined DK salary
I’m going to take advantage of the price dropping on Kris Dunn and Robin Lopez. The drop in price is mostly due to the match up with the Celtics. They’re 2nd overall in DEFRtg, 5th best in 3PT% allowed and 1st in PITP allowed to the opponent. The Celtics rank 25th overall in pace of play and with all of those things combined this will be a game where folks ease up on using the Bulls players. The salary relief for stacking these three leave’s you around $7,000 for the five remaining positions and that could come in handy. The biggest wild card here is David Nwaba who has seen his minutes come down as of late.Together these three combine for 2.73 FPPM and to reach 6x value we only need 91.8 combined DraftKings points. I could see this trio coming in a shade under that mark leaving you plenty of room to roster mid tier plays or pay up for 1-2 studs and focus on the $5k range. Obviously we’ll need this game to stay close and within reach. Boston has playing down to their competition lately and if that trend continues some Bulls players could once again find themselves in a winning lineup.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyler Zeller & Allen Crabbe $12,800 combined salary.
Dion Waiters, Kelly Olynyk & Jordan Mickey $15,700 combined salary.
Ersan Ilyasova & Marco Belinelli $8,200 combined salary.
Nicolas Batum & Dwight Howard $12,700 combined salary.
Nikola Jokic & Gary Harris $13,900 combined salary.
Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner $16,100 combined salary.
Russel Westbrook & Paul George $18,300 combined salary.

Jimmy Butler, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

Mid Tier
Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Lauri Markkanen, Paul George, Lonzo Ball, Will Barton, Kris Dunn, Carmelo Anthony, Kemba Walker, Donovan Mitchell, Bradley Beal, TJ Warren, C.J. McCollum, and Zach Randolph.

Value That could open up.
Michael Carter-Williams, Johnny O’Byrant III, Marco Belinelli, Deyonte Davis, Brandon Wright and Wayne Ellington.

Thoughts on tonight’s Core
Jimmy Butler Phoenix ranks 27th overall in DEFRtg and 29th in PITP allowed. Jimmy’s scoring 42.5% of his points in the paint as he’s continuously attacking the basket. Obviously in this scenario Taj Gibson and K. Towns would also benefit tonight against Phoenix but Jimmy Butler gets the majority of the touches on each possession down the court. His FPPM is around where we want our players. However for a guy his price it is a little concerning. None the less we know with Thibs as the coach his minutes will be there. If we sample Jimmy’s numbers over the last month the FPPM and Periph/3pt change dramatically. We’ll need raw points from Jimmy, he’s valued at 4.32x his current DraftKings salary and he’s currently projected for 4.41x. Selecting Butler tonight means we think it’s a ceiling night of 53 DK points. Which I feel is quite possible against this Suns team.

Johnny O’Bryant III This is simply planning for Dwight Howard not playing tonight. If he’s ruled out I’m comfortable using JOB3 as a value/punt play in my lineups. His minutes and role have increased over the course of the month since returning to the active roster. His projections will change as we near lock if Dwight Howard out so that part I will look past for now. He’s averaging .98 FPPM and facing off against a team that historically has struggled against opposing centers. The risk here is that if both Kemba Walker and Dwight Howard sit this game could easily go in the favor of the Bucks. So we’ll have to monitor the news closely. Ideally we want Dwight Howard to sit and Kemba Walker to play. If that scenario doesn’t play out JOB3 is minimum salary and could still be a viable option. In that case I’d take the chance and put some risk out there with Michael Carter-Williams and Johnny O’Bryant III paired together. Go big or go home right?

Nikola Jokic This is simply taking advantage of an under priced player in a match up that suits his skill set. GSW continue to struggle against quality centers on the opposing team. It appears Jokic has successfully worked his way back from injury and he’s reclaiming his dominant role in the offense. He’s averaging 1.32 FPPM and a staggering .78 of those fantasy points are coming from peripherals and the 3pt shot. We won’t have long to play him at these prices and tonight with his match up I’m expecting a very high ownership. Definitely above 25% in GPP’s probably more around the 30-33%. In cash games plug him in and don’t think twice as his ownership percentages will allow you to beat half the field even if he duds.

That’s all for today guys. Around 30 minutes before lock I’ll update my minutes projections (RotoGrinders the source). The embedded spreadsheet is set to automatically refresh when changes are made so the spreadsheet will change automatically. I just to do the embedding instead of the screenshots as that can be a little time consuming. Hope you all enjoy, best of luck to everyone and happy holidays!!!

P.S. When we return for Christmas day I may embed a version for FanDuel. The process would be easier if I continue to go this route over screenshots.

Core Update
Main Core Kris Dunn, Jimmy Butler, Malcolm Brogdon and Jordan Bell.
Mid-Core Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Will Barton, Lauri Markkanen and Brandon Wright.
Low Core, Kyle Kuzma, Pat Connaughton

About the Author

  • disciple

    Excellent job, I really appreciate the help.

  • twalman79

    Good stuff as usual!

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @disciple said...

    Excellent job, I really appreciate the help.

    No problem man. Hope it’s helpful with your DFS goals.

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @twalman79 said...

    Good stuff as usual!

    Changes made to the core players. With Dwight Howard looking likely to play I’ve dropped JOB3 and also Frank Kaminsky. I picked up Brandon Wright and Bam Adeboya .. Bam scares me having to guard either Cousins or Davis but it made for an easy pivot due to the salaries.

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    Lol another core update.

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