A Contrarian's Guide: NBA Cash and Tournament Plays 12/27/2017


Being knowledgeable about projections, DvP, advanced team stats and team news can help enhance your DFS performance and profitability. Throughout the season I’ll have players I’ll focus on from a game stack or team stack perspective, but I’ll also use the projections model, known injury news and team match ups to build my lineups around the more optimal players on the slate. Popularity on those players will be disregarded if that player gives us the highest chance at exceeding value relative to his price point. If they’re questions about players I haven’t mentioned or have decided to fade don’t hesitate to ask. I’ll try to keep the blog neutral the best I can but for the time being my NBA site of choice is DraftKings.


12/27/2017 Back to Back and Injuries
Sacramento, Memphis, Denver, Dallas, Toronto and Indiana are on back to backs. Boston and Minnesota are on the front end of a back to back.


Probable Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nikola Jokic, Chandler Parsons and Brandon Ingram.


Questionable Domantas Sabonis, Victor Oladipo, Semi Ojeleye, Mike Muscala, JaMychal Green and Raul Neto


Doubtful N/A


Out Dorian Finney-Smith, Jaylen Brown, Semi Ojeleye, Marcus Morris, Isaiah Thomas (1g), Mike Conley (4g), Lonzo Ball (3g) and Stephen Curry.


DraftKings Charts


Average FPPG per player for the teams playing tonight for.


Looks like SF’s and PG’s are the pay up spots for tonight on DraftKings. Plenty of directions you can go if your looking to differentiate.


Average FPPG by position.


The salary and FPPG Correlation chart suggests that players between $7,000-$9,000 salary range represents the most consistent or safe plays for tonight. To me this is very intriguing. John Wall is in a great spot facing off against the Hawks if your looking to begin with the second tier studs or a more balanced approach.






Tonight’s Combos & Stacks


Lance Stephenson, Thaddeus Young & Myles Turner
If Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis are unable to play this is the stack I’ll target tonight. With Oladipo and Sabonis off of the court Thaddeus Young usage increases by 8.9% and Myles Turner increases 3.2%. Lance Stephenson actually gets a down grade by 0.3%. Stephenson does average .99 FPPM under this scenario which turns him into an optimal play for tonight. Barring a blowout or injury he would definitely see 30+ minutes of court time. Luckily this is one of the first games to tip off so we should have information prior to lock. When attacking Dallas it’s wise to target players who can space the floor especially power forwards and centers. Turner and Young offer us that tonight so it’s quite possible they make it into some of my other lineups tonight. Pay close attention to the Pacers injury news as I feel it provides us the best opportunity for value.


Jamal Crawford, Jimmy Butler & K. Towns
Kemba Walker & Dwight Howard
George Hill & Zach Randolph


Kemba Walker For me this is simply taking advantage of an under priced player in a match up that doesn’t look the juciest on paper. Charlotte is at home against Boston tonight and defensively the Celtics have the edge. They’re missing a trio of players from the rotation and it should create some fantasy relevance on the other side of the ball. Over 17 games squaring off with Irving, Kemba’s averaging 32.9Mpg 16.8Ppg, 2.7Rpg, 5.9Apg, 1.9Stl and 6Bpg. Those numbers aren’t astounding by any means, roughly 35 DKpts which would be just over 5x his current salary. Considering he’s averaging 15.7FGA and shooting just 37.5% from the field I believe his upside at his current price (FanDuel and Draftkings) is pretty hard to ignore. To paint a clearer picture we typically love Kemba Walker at home rather than on the road. Seven of those 17 games came at home and there’s a small uptick across the stat sheet. He averages 35.7Mpg, 18.6Ppg, 3.1Rpg, 6.7Apg, 2.3Spg, 1.3Bpg and shoots 39.8%FG. He actually shoots less FG attempts coming in at 15.4FGA. Kemba Walker at home, low ownership because of Boston’s defense? I’m definitely in.


K. Towns On the radio yesterday the topic of K. Towns stepping up against his peers was a well talked topic. He’s quoted as wanting to step up against his peers, from there I’m going to throw out some stats against Nikola Jokic. In nine games he’s averaging 34.8Mpg, 22.4Ppg, 12.1Rpg, 3.2Apg, 0.9Spg and 2.1Bpg. Denver ranks 25th in PITP allowed. They’re stingy overall when it comes to 2nd chance points to the opponent. Making it tough for offensive rebounds and put packs. If Towns can gain position for a few of those tonight then I really like his chances at exceeding value. With how poorly the Timberwolves are inside it wouldn’t be a bad idea to pair him with Nikola Jokic on DraftKings.


Core targets as of now.


Kemba Walker, K. Towns, Lebron James, Terry Rozier and George Hill.
Thaddeus Young, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Jamal Crawford and Jimmy Butler.
Josh Hart, Myles Turner, Lance Stephenson, Maxi Kleber, Mason Plumlee, Jordan Clarkson, Steven Adams, Zach Randolph and Daniel Theis.


Value Screen shot of highest projected value as of early this afternoon.


Final Thoughts on Tonight’s Core Update Coming
DraftKings
Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Nikola Jokic, Allen Crabbe and Jayson Tatum.
K. Towns, Lebron James, J.J. Barea, Joe Ingles, Jonas Jerebko and Mason Plumlee.
Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Love and Dwight Howard.


FanDuel
Lebron James, Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Crawford, Jayson Tatum, John Wall and Carmelo Anthony.
Jonas Jerebko, Will Barton, Kemba Walkers, Joe Ingles and Jimmy Butler.
Maxi Kleber, Ottoe Porter, Rodney Hood, Paul George, Kevin Love, Thaddeus young, DeMarre Carroll, J.J Barea and K. Towns.

About the Author

  • Brandon684

    Oladipo is OUT but Sabonis WILL PLAY. Should I only target Lance or fade the Pacers all together?

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Brandon684 said...

    Oladipo is OUT but Sabonis WILL PLAY. Should I only target Lance or fade the Pacers all together?

    I’m giving Lance and Young a try. Almost finished tweaking the lineups. I’m ok going away from Turner for FD with his price and other options at C.

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