A Contrarian's Guide: NBA Cash and Tournament Plays 12/30/2017


Being knowledgeable about projections, DvP, advanced team stats and team news can help enhance your DFS performance and profitability. Throughout the season I’ll have players I’ll focus on from a game stack or team stack perspective, but I’ll also use the projections model, known injury news and team match ups to build my lineups around the more optimal players on the slate. Popularity on those players will be disregarded if that player gives us the highest chance at exceeding value relative to his price point. If they’re questions about players I haven’t mentioned or have decided to fade don’t hesitate to ask. I’ll try to keep the blog neutral the best I can but for the time being my NBA site of choice is DraftKings.


12/27/2017 Back to Back and Injuries
Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta and Golden State are on back to backs. Memphis and Philadelphia are on a front end of a back to back


Probable Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Meyers Leonard, Noah Vonleh and Brandan Wright.


Questionable Damian Lillard, Wayne Selden Jr, JaMychal Green, Omri Casspi, Robert Covington, Robert Covington, Juan Hernangomez and Malik Beasley.


Doubtful Justin Anderson


Out Justise Winslow, James Johnson, Jonathan Isaac, Jon Leuer, Avery Bradley, Dewayne Dedmon, Isaiah Thomas, Raul Neto, Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, Markelle Fultz and Joel Embiid.


DraftKings Charts


Average FPPG per player for the teams playing tonight for.


Looks like C’s and PF’s are the pay up spots for tonight on DraftKings. This is a night where I’ll be looking to load up on double double opportunities. There’s plenty of big men priced accordingly.


Average FPPG by position.


The salary and FPPG Correlation chart suggests that players between $6,000-$9,300 salary range represents the most consistent or safe plays for tonight. They’re plenty of $6k options to choose from tonight. Enes Kanter, Dario Saric, Dennis Schroder, Will Barton, Jamal Murray are all very high on my list.




Tonight’s Combos & Stacks


Ben Simmons, Richaun Holmes & Dario Saric.
Philadelphia @ Denver is the game I’ll have the most exposure to. There’s plenty to be excited about for Philly tonight with Joel Embiid out on the front end of a back to back. I’m going to plan as if Robert Covington will miss the game and with that Ben Simmons stands out to me the most. He has struggled lately in DFS terms but his price relative to his upside in this match up is intriguing. He’s facing off against the 4th worst DvP against PG’s tonight. The worry is that Denver is actually trending upwards during the past month for DvP against the position. They do continue to struggle against opposing centers and they’re 20th overall in DEFRtg, 25th in OPP PITP and 28th in OPP FG%. All of those things favor these three 76ers.


Nikola Jokic, Will Barton & Jamal Murray.
Again this is a game I’ll be heavily exposed to and will likely game stack in at least one lineup tonight. Philadelphia has the 5th worst DvP against PG’s, the 4th worst DvP against centers and they’re in the middle of the pack against SF’s on tonight’s slate. Will Barton gets thrown into the mix with me expecting Robert Covington to sit out tonight’s game. He also rotates to the SG spot where Philly has the 2nd worst DvP for tonight. This is a pace up game for Denver. That doesn’t happen to often and when it does it usually means great things for some Nuggets players. I struggled deciding whether or not to target Gary Harris but ultimately three Nugget starters sounded like too many. Will Barton second unit usage sounds like a better play for the salary. If Juan Hernangomez and Malik Beasley miss tonight Barton’s due for 33+ minutes of action most of which would come mostly against weaker competition. Will Barton is less scoring dependent than Gary Harris and Barton’s priced at 5.08x his salary for tonight. The biggest boom or bust here is Jamal Murray, he’s known to take games off at times or get “Mike Malone’d” so I’ll watch my exposure with him although on paper he’s in a great spot.


Dennis Schroder & Taurean Prince.


Targets as of now.


Ish Smith With his recent price increase and facing off against San Antonio I’m expecting Ish’s ownership to be a little lower today. I’ll aim to be overweight the field simply because in my mind he’s still under priced and has one of the highest upsides in his salary range.


LaMarcus Aldridge The model loves LMA today. He’s valued at 5.18x his salary and costs $193.00 per fantasy point. He’s under priced for his projected production and will likely go low owned in a slow paced unattractive (Vegas) game. I was leaning between him and Draymond Green at this position and salary range but LaMarcus gives me more consistent scoring and touches. Also with Stephen Curry returning, Draymond may have to scratch for more peripherals.


Enes Kanter Recency bias has folks hopping off of Kanter and that’s an opportunity I like to attack. The match up tonight against New Orleans is exactly the kind where you want to target a guy like Kanter. He’ll be relied upon with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins in the Pelicans front court. Over the past month New Orleans has the 5th worst DvP against the center position and they’re trendind downwards from their season averages. They rank 23rd in OPP FG% and 22nd in OPP PITP. New York does struggle to stay competitive on the road. Minutes could be slashed if things get out of hand early considering Hornacek’s coaching style. We need this one to stay close through the fourth quarter for this play to work in our favor.


Value Screen shot of highest projected value as of early this afternoon.


Tonight’s Core Update Coming
Core Will Barton, Ish Smith, Evan Fournier, Richaun Holmes and Ben Simmons (82-64%)


Mid Core Taurean Prince, Dario Saric, Dennis Schroder, Nikola Jokic and LaMarcus Aldridge (52-41%). Enes Kanter, Courtney Lee, Kevin Durant, Goran Dragic, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick Favors and TJ McConnell (29-17%).


Low Core Wayne Ellington, CJ McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, Tobias Harris, Thabo Sefolosha and Jamal Murray (11-5%)

About the Author

  • apeterson8809

    • 232

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Blogger of the Month

    Good stuff. Ben Simmons triple double tonight.

  • precool

    Awesome deep dive research man. Thanks for the guidance.

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @apeterson8809 said...

    Good stuff. Ben Simmons triple double tonight.

    Yea man he’s in a great spot tonight. I know this sounds weird but it’s better if RoCov sits. Puts a guy like TJM into the lineup more so he can feed the ball to simmons for those raw points. With Philly on the front end of a back to back I’m expecting Covington to take a seat tonight. That’s two injuries his past two games? Seems like the wise coaching decision for sure.

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @precool said...

    Awesome deep dive research man. Thanks for the guidance.

    No problem man. Hope it’s useful!! :)

  • bacon6966

    If Cov plays, does that lower the love for TJM?

  • erickjones1

    AP

    whats going to be your strategy for tonight’s slate ?

  • KATburger

    • Blogger of the Month

    @bacon6966 said...

    If Cov plays, does that lower the love for TJM?

    In most cases it would take away some of his court time. But considering Denvers rotation I could see TJM seeing some good run due to match ups. I still have exposure to him on the news. I’m heavier on Simmons/Holmes/Saric though.

  • brad063072

    Love reading your research but have a quick question. What site is it that your screen shots are from, or are those form an Excel file of yours? For example, the “Value Screen shot of highest projected value as of early this afternoon” that you have here in this article. I’m fairly new to RG so if this is on the site somewhere, i’ve yet to find it. If it’s not on the RG site though, i figured i’d ask where I can find it? Looks like some really good, useful info to utilize when constructing LU’s. Thanks and i’ll definitely be looking for more articles/blog’s of yours!

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