A Grinder's Story - Episode 2
Good afternoon! We are 1 week into the baseball season and it’s time to check in and see how it’s going. Today I am going to discuss my approach, key learnings and next steps for DFS and specifically MLB.
Let’s start with some data on how I did and then we can dive into the details. The chart below shows my daily net profit/loss. The total so far for the MLB season is a net loss of ($342.40). I know everyone is now desperate to get the keys to my glorious success and locked into reading the rest of the blog today 😊
Based on my current bankroll the goal was to get about $500 in play on MLB with a mix of cash and tournament exposure. These were guidelines and I did play some smaller action on early/late slates outside of the $500 but for the “Main” slate, my average contest entries break down as follows:
H2Hs – $250
Double Ups – $100
$1 150 max – $150
I should start by saying I’m a premium RG member and subscriber to The Bat projection system. Having said that, I would give myself a poor grade on use of the tools and information I’ve had available. I have never claimed to be an expert at building the best lineups, but I considered myself at least slightly above average. My edge came more from my process discipline and willingness to take a more scientific approach with an eye toward process improvement. For instance, after three days of baseball, I was ready to make changes to what I was doing with contest entries based on results but I was committed to staying consistent for at least the first week.
Here are my key learnings:
- I have to do more individual research on players and matchups on my own and become more consistent in my approach to building lineups
- An incredibly high number of players in my H2Hs are all using the same optimal lineup from The Bat projection system
- Until I get more consistent with producing one solid lineup, I have no business trying to make 150.
- The variance in baseball creates a more boom/bust outcome and $150 invested daily with a likely result of zero return doesn’t work for my current goals and game diversity.
- The “cash line” in tournaments and cash games is very fluid.
Before we get down to the “what changes do we make” phase, I want to add a little more detail to the last observation on “cash lines”. Using the results DB tool on RG, I pulled data for each day represented on the chart below.
Several noteworthy items from this information. In order to hold myself accountable and measure my improvement in lineup building I am going to track my main lineup results versus The Bat optimal on a daily basis. This is not in any way an attempt to “beat The Bat” but meant as an index I can measure against. Additionally, I will be measuring against the Average Cash line in cash games.
2 of the last 8 days the minimum line to cash in GPPs was lower than in cash games. I’m not going to unpack that right now but I am confident that happens when certain circumstances occur relative to the success/failure of highly owned players. On most days the difference between GPP and Cash games is small enough to consider a change in the diversity and mix of games I enter. On the 2 days my LU exceeded the cash line for cash games it also surpassed the line for tournaments and on one of those days by a significant amount.
So what do I do with all that, keeping in mind it has only been a week?
- Commit to a daily research and lineup building process that includes player level research (Don’t mock me for saying I need to do this…..I know some of you read an article/listen to a podcast and then fire up lineups)
- Track daily performance against benchmarks discussed above.
- Enter 1 lineup for all contests
- H2Hs – $250
- Double Ups – $50
- Single Entry GPP – $50 with a 2x min cash
Baseball is a long season and it is clear I’m far from solid on my basic processes so I’m lowering my daily spend to $350 for the next week while I work on implementing the changes above. Hopefully on Friday next week we will have some better results but regardless I will have more information to review and improve on my process.
Thanks for taking the time to read and please feel free to comment below. I’m interested in your experience from the first week and what you are doing that’s working well or the changes you are making this week!