Bankroll Challenge 9/23 Blog #4
My name’s Nathan Van Hare, username “nvanhare” on both DraftKings and FanDuel and welcome to the CS:GO breakdown and Bankroll Challenge Blog. This blog aims to take the reader through my thought process when attacking slates as well as provide myself, and others if they wish to join me, with a fun esports based bankroll challenge! The challenge started three days ago with a starting roll of $500 and as of the slate earlier today we are at $579.89. Last night’s PAL slate was awful for us as we got crushed during the main slate. We had $57.50 in entries and only managed to get back $13.58. Our showdown slate was a bit better with $8.50 of entries and $13.33 in cashes. Our showdown slate for the ESL Pro League SA region was much better. Our cash lineup missed, but our GPP builds smashed. In total we had $35.25 in entries and we managed to get $110.16 in cashes. Another PAL slate tonight and another showdown slate as well!
Total Entries: $101.25 Total Cashes: $137.07
Total Profit or Loss: $35.82
New Bankroll: $579.89
PAL 3 Gamer
Main Contest Entries: H2H and DUs: $30, $1 One Tap 17 Entries, $0.25 Jukebox 14 entries, $0.10 Dimetime 17 entries
Showdown Contest Entries: H2H and DUs: $9, $0.25 Jukebox 10 entries, $1 One Tap 5 entries
Tyloo (84.4%) vs Bren (15.6%)
Here’s our biggest mismatch of the day, Tyloo is a massive favorite and rightfully so. They’re also priced accordingly which can definitely be a bit frustrating on this slate. Surprisingly, Bren has won a series against Tyloo in the last year. In their last 3 meetings Tyloo is 2-1, has won 5/7 of the maps, and leads in rounds 109-78. Tyloo is clearly the best team in this region and doesn’t lose often, if ever.
Let’s start by looking at the beasts, Tyloo. This team is incredibly balanced with no player having a less than 19% market share in the team’s fantasy points. Over the last month dank1ng has been at the top of the scores while Attacker, a once top performer, has been at the bottom. The rest of the team has stayed pretty stagnant. I will be giving a priority to using dank1ng in my lineups as he’s expensive and his captain ownership should be lower as a result, but for the rest of the team I will be basing most on prices as their production Is so close among them. My favorite play is likely to be SUMMER here. somebody is 100% going to be one of the chalkiest players on this as they are the cheapest Tyloo player and still projects near the top of the group. Because of this, I really like the pivot to SUMMER at a similar price but likely lower ownership by a considerable amount given his projection is at the bottom of the list for the squad. I don’t think I’ll be getting to much Attacker given his price and recent performance but SLOWLY dank1ng and somebody will all make a decent amount of my lineups. I really don’t want to roster much Bren so it’s likely I have at least one Tyloo in each lineup.
For Bren, not much has changed since yesterday’s slate. I really don’t want to roster them in this matchup though, so as a result I wont spend much time talking about them. Papichulo derek and witz are the top three on this team and if they manage to pull off this upset, at least one of those three is going to have to put up some insane numbers. I think I like witz the most of the 3 as a one off because of the extreme value you get from his $5.4K pricetag. Pro. and micr0 I probably avoid for the most part but would consider in stacks of 2 of the main 3 guys + one of the bottom 2. Overall I just don’t think I’ll have much of this team in my build.
Checkmate (34.6%) vs Beyond(65.4%)
Checkmate came out yesterday and showed that they meant business. I wasn’t lucky enough to have enough of the right guys in my build but they confirmed my suspicions that they’re gonna make some noise this PAL season. These two teams have never faced off but have similar long term results in their respective matchups. I really like the idea of rostering a bunch of Checkmate here as the other favorites on the slate offer enough savings for Tyloo full stacks to be used so these underdogs should go quite under owned.
For Checkmate, blitz and kaz are our top two. blitz has taken the main role on the team over the last 3 months and has put up 0.65 fp/r over the last month. He holds a 26.5% market share of team fantasy points and offers massive upside in a win. At $7.4K I really like the play and think he should be rarely owned. kaz is the clear #2 on this team. He also has nearly 0.6 fp/r over the last month and owns 24% of the fp share on this team. He makes for a great play as well as he has major upside as well as he’s super cheap. H4wk and Techno are our bottom two on this squad and I likely stay away from both for the most part. ROUX falls in the center of this team and has moderate stats. He has a 0.45 fp/r over the last 3 months and a near 20% market share on the team. at $6K I like using him paired with a top guy and will have him in some of my Checkmate stacks.
For Beyond we have Olivia at the top of this team. Olivia has held a 25% market share over the last 3 months and operates at a 0.6 fp/r rate. This team as a whole is massively discounted and he is no different. At $7.2K I like getting to a decent amount of Olivia as they have the massive upside we want in a GPP lineup. Next on the platter we have Kntz. He operates as a definitive #2 to Olivia but still offers decent upside. He has a 23% market share and has a 0.55 fp/r rate over the last month. At $7K we prob see a bit lower ownership on him than Olivia and I like making the play here as well. After these two, the rest of the team all have similar outputs. They all have a mid 18% contribution share, and all haver a little bit less than 0.45 fp/r. I lean towards MAIROLLS for the savings he offers and will likely be heaviest there out of the three.
TIGER (67.86%) vs ZIGMA (32.14%)
These two teams have played once but it was back in April. ZIGMA took that match then but I think TIGER are rightfully favored in this matchup. They have a better overall squad that has been operating at a higher rate than the ZIGMA team.
For TIG I’m licking my chops at the price on erkaSt. This player has put up 0.8 kpr over the last 3 months and 0.88 kpr over the last month. In addition to that he has a near 0.9 fp/r rate and has 27% of his team’s fantasy points. These are similar numbers to a ZywOo or s1mple and we shouldn’t be ignoring them. He has one of the largest upsides on the slate and I’ll likely be extremely heavy on him, as most of the rest of the field will as well. At $7.8K he is a steal. Next for Tiger is kabal. The last month of stats for him have elevated his share to 23.5% and has a 0.77 fp/r rate. He’s #3 overall on the slate for fp/r behind Derek and erkaSt over the last month and we should be utilizing him a lot in our lineups. nin9 and dobu are interchangeable and both have almost the exact same stats. They both have a near 19% share and a 0.62 fp/r over the last month. Both make for good plays at cheap prices and I expect to have a decent amount. The one player I wont be using on this team is ncl. He has lower than 13% in share on the team and a measly 0.4 fp/r. There isn’t much upside here and you don’t really need his savings…. It’s a no for me.
For ZIGMA they have the one guy that im finding really hard to fade on this slate, and it’s only because of his name. PPOverdose just gets me laughing everytime I see it. Who thought that was a good idea? Coincidentally, he’s also this team’s #1 and has a 25% market share. He has good upside and will likely be using him in my ZIG stacks alongside Niffy or Rolex. These two are the next in line for this team and both have upwards of 20% in share and upwards of 0.55 fp/r. They have moderate to good upside and come in priced at $7.6K and $6.6K. I lean towards Rolex just due to the added savings we get from using him. I likely would use 2/3 of that top 3 in any stack of ZIGMA. For the bottom two, I’ll likely only use if I absolutely need the salary with a lean towards Reality at $4.8K.