Bankroll Challenge 9/25 Blog #5
My name’s Nathan Van Hare, username “nvanhare” on both DraftKings and FanDuel and welcome to the CS:GO breakdown and Bankroll Challenge Blog. This blog aims to take the reader through my thought process when attacking slates as well as provide myself, and others if they wish to join me, with a fun esports based bankroll challenge! The challenge started four days ago with a starting roll of $500 and as of the slate earlier today we are at $519.04. Last night’s PAL slate ended up being mediocre for us and the first World’s slate for LOL was decent as well! Nothing big but nothing bad either. With exams for school this past week it’s been tough to post but let’s get back at it with a quick 2 gamer today for the ESL Pro League!
Team Liquid (58.46%) vs 100 Thieves (41.54%)
These teams play eachother a decent amount in the NA region, and TL seems to always get the better of 100T. Over their last 3 meetings TL is up 3-0 on the series, 6-2 on the maps, and 115-100 on rounds. Personal bias on this one I lean towards 100T just because I haven’t really been a TL believer since Grim joined the team, but this game is definitely a coin flip overall
Let’s start with TL. Grim has still had one of the most insane drop-offs in production since he joined TL from Triumph. With both his Triumph and TL stats taken into account, he has a very solid 0.72 fp/r over the last 3 months. However, when we look at the last month of just TL play, he has 0.47 fp/r and that’s nothing to be proud of or happy with. He’s finally priced at a level that makes sense for him but I still don’t love playing much. Stewie2K is another option that has pretty abysmal stats over the last few months. However, when he’s on, he’s on. We’re either getting ceiling or floor Stewie2K. So I don’t mind him used at either flex or captain over a decent amount of lineups. His ownership should be way below the rest of his team but he has decent ceiling. Now on to the main course for TL. EliGE is our #1 here. After a few months of playing pretty average, he’s finally picked up the slack again and has a near 0.7 fp/r rate with a market share of 25% for the team. He leads fragging a majority of the time and definitely has the ceiling we’re looking for. NAF and Twistzz are both also good options with around 0.6 fp/r and 20-22% shares on this team. Pricing I’m not caring too much about on this slate as basically everyone is affordable and this becomes a true play who you want situation. I likely go a bit over on NAF compared to EliGE for the slight ownership disparity.
For 100 Thieves there’s always been a clear #1 and the rest of the team battles for #2. jks is our clear #1 and at his price of $7K I don’t see how we don’t go to town with rostering him. He has the ceiling, he has the floor, he has everything we want here. He has a 0.7 fp/r rate with a 25% market share over the last 3 months and is the leader on this team. Next up we have all four players being options for the #2. Liazz has had a rough few game stretch but $5.6K is disrespectful. I likely get to a bunch of him and mix in some captain slots with him as he has the ceiling and with pricing how it is I don’t think he gets much ownership there. jkaem and Gratisfaction are both equal in my mind and will likely be way over on both of them as well. AZR isn’t in a bad spot with pricing but I probably get around the field’s exposure with him as long term he is definitely the #5 on this team and things will return to normal eventually.
BOOM (67.67%) vs Sharks (32.33%)
These teams haven’t played, at least on record, since mid-late 2019. I’m gonna take Sharks’ 2-0 win from their last face-off and throw it out the window. So much has changed since then, and I don’t think it’s too relevant to the matchup at hand. Both of these teams are good, but BOOM is on another level. felps and boltz play at an insane level, and they have great support from the rest of the team. I don’t see many scenarios where Sharks come out of this as winners with good scores.
For BOOM there’s no way not to love boltz here at $7.6K. Over the last month he has a fp/r of 1.03 and a 25.5% market share. He has major ceiling and him putting up 100 points wouldn’t surprise me even a little. The same goes for felps on this team. He’s priced a little higher at $8.4K but it’s well deserved with his 1.05 fp/r and 26.8% share. Both of these players have major ceiling and they’re great for tournaments. They should also likely be the mega chalk, but I’m likely just going to eat it. Following behind those two are yel and shz. I think this is where we can get a bit interesting with our lineups as yel shouldn’t get as much captain ownership as the other guys. He’s priced a bit too high for his long term rates yet still has ceiling potential like the rest of the squad. I like being over on him in this slate. shz is in a similar situation. I don’t mind playing either of the two at their 0.7 fp/r and 19% share on the team. They make for lower owned captains and I’ll still be rostering a bunch of the top two at the FLEX Spot.
Alright, now if we want that major leverage route. Sharks are likely to be so incredibly overlooked on this slate, and likely for good reason, but having a few Sharks lineups isn’t a bad idea. The clear #1 for Sharks is exit. Over the last month sample he has a 0.84 fp/r and a 26% team share, well above the rest of his teammates. exit has what we’re looking for and I don’t mind him at all in my lineups, even as a one off with BOOM players included. Next for the team we have leo_druNky and Luken tied for the #2 spot. They both have around a 0.7 fp/r rate and a 21% share of their teams fantasy points. Both of them are sub $7K and shouldn’t have much ownership. Lastly we have jnt and supLex with around 0.5 fp/r and a 16% share for each of them. I don’t mind them as a 3rd man in for the team stack but I won’t be considering them at captain at all.
Today I likely go with a lot more 100T than TL and a bunch more BOOM than Sharks.