Bomb Barometer - 6/26

In this search for home runs I wanted to run through a number of filters to see if we can narrow down to a small group of hitters that seem to be in the best position to hit home runs. I feel strongly that baseball is a sport of streaks and you need to try and ride those hot streaks while they last. Because of this I’m going to start my search by targeting hitters who’ve had home run success over the past week. From there we’ll try and use some statistics indicative of power and split success to narrow this field.

Note: Going forward I will be using two home runs over the past week as the first step in the filters. RG has phased out the statistics I was using for home runs over the past 14 days and the last week is probably more indicative of someone starting to get on a hot streak anyways.

Monday recap and overall record: We had 12 hitters picked on Monday and two of them hit home runs (Jed Lowrie and Kike Hernandez). I’m going to start tracking the cumulative results with Monday’s results thanks to the good suggestion from fellow blogger Data Detective. This gives us an overall record of 2 for 12 or 17% success rate.

Let’s run through the process for Tuesday to see who the Barometer likes.

Step 1 – Start with hitters who have had 2 or more home runs over the past 7 days: Nolan Arenado, Mark Trumbo, Yadier Molina, Nelson Cruz, Francisco Lindor, Luis Valbuena, Jesus Aguilar, Enrique Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Anthony Rendon, Curtis Granderson, Kyle Schwarber, Stephen Piscotty, Jed Lowrie, Miguel Andujar, Giancarlo Stanton, Kendrys Morales, Cody Bellinger, Matt Olson, Derek Dietrich, Franklin Barreto, Carlos Santana, Wilson Ramos, Joey Votto, Eugenior Suarez, Jose Ramirez, Mark Canha, Max Muncy, Jose Bautista, Trey Mancini, Edwin Encarnacion, Jesse Winker, Manuel Margot, Matt Carpenter, Kole Calhoun, Paul Goldschmidt, Tim Anderson, Alex Bregman, Yuleski Gurriel, Gerado Parra, Aaron Judge, Jason Kipnis, Jose Altuve, Randal Grichuk and Gorkys Hernandez.

Step 2 – Remove anyone listed above who’s ISO is less than 200 versus the handedness of the starting pitcher they will face tonight. We’ll also remove anyone who’s not listed in the projected starting lineup. This leaves us with the following: Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina, Nelson Cruz, Francisco Lindor, Enrique Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Anthony Rendon, Curtis Granderson, Kyle Schwarber, Miguel Andujar, Cody Bellinger, Franklin Barreto, Carlos Santana, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Ramirez, Mark Canha, Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Alex Bregman and Aaron Judge.

Step 3 – Let’s remove anyone who’s facing a pitcher that has a hard hit rate of 35% or less. This leaves us with the following hitters: Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina, Nelson Cruz, Francisco Lindor, Enrique Hernandez, Cody Bellinger, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt and Alex Bregman.

Step 4 – Lastly we want to narrow this group down based upon the exit velocity statistics of the starting pitcher they are facing. We’ll remove anyone facing a starting pitcher who’s percentage exit velocity over 95 mph is 35% or less. This leaves us with the following: Nolan Arenado, Nelson Cruz, Enrique Hernandez, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Alex Bregman.

The Bomb Barometer is picking : Nolan Arenado, Nelson Cruz, Enrique Hernandez, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Alex Bregman.

Good luck grinders.

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Comments

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thanks for adding the success record… good stuff 👍

  • jsherman003

    • Blogger of the Month

    The real question is what I should use to compare this against once I have more data? As a minimum I would think it needs to be compared against the % of players hitting home runs nightly when compared to all players in every starting lineup. But that may be too easy and maybe there is some more difficulty measure it should be compared against?

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    @jsherman003 said...

    The real question is what I should use to compare this against once I have more data? As a minimum I would think it needs to be compared against the % of players hitting home runs nightly when compared to all players in every starting lineup. But that may be too easy and maybe there is some more difficulty measure it should be compared against?

    Yeah, good question. As a starting point, I can calculate the league-wide frequency of a player hitting a HR in a game over the past couple seasons. Of course, since your screening criteria tends to weed out lesser hitters this might not be a fair comparison. I guess it would be better to select players across different price ranges like how joeycis does the HR Derby.

  • jsherman003

    • Blogger of the Month

    Nelson Cruz is out due to back tightness so don’t start him and we’ll remove him from the list for today.

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