Bomb Barometer - 6/27

In this search for home runs I wanted to run through a number of filters to see if we can narrow down to a small group of hitters that seem to be in the best position to hit home runs. I feel strongly that baseball is a sport of streaks and you need to try and ride those hot streaks while they last. Because of this I’m going to start my search by targeting hitters who’ve had home run success over the past week. From there we’ll try and use some statistics indicative of power and split success to narrow this field.

Note: Going forward I will be using two home runs over the past week as the first step in the filters. RG has phased out the statistics I was using for home runs over the past 14 days and the last week is probably more indicative of someone starting to get on a hot streak anyways.

Tuesday recap and overall record: We ended up with 5 hitters picked for Tuesday with Nelson Cruz not playing. Bregman took one yard so we were 1 of 5 on Tuesday This brings the cumulative result to 3 for 17 or 18% success rate.

Let’s run through the process for Wednesday to see who the Barometer likes.

Step 1 – Start with hitters who have had 2 or more home runs over the past 7 days: Nolan Arenado, Mark Trumbo, Yadier Molina, Luis Valbuena, Matt Carpenter, Jesus Aguilar, Francisco Lindor, Derek Dietrich, Kendrys Morales, Enrique Hernandez, Jed Lowrie, Cody Bellinger, Matt Olson, Alex Bregman, Curtis Granderson, Franklin Barreto, Gregory Polanco, Christian Yelich, Nelson Cruz, Mark Canha, Jose Ramirez, Jose Martinez, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Edwin Encarnacion, Max Muncy, Randal Grichuk, Jesse Winker, Rougned Odor, Manuel Margot, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, Eugenio Suarez, Gerardo Parra, Kyle Schwarber, Odubel Herrera, Javier Baez, J.D. Martinez, Stephen Piscotty, Tim Anderson, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Miguel Andujar, Yulieski Gurriel, Aaron Judge, Kyle Seager, Gorkys Hernandez and Robinson Chirinos.

Step 2 – Remove anyone listed above who’s ISO is less than 200 versus the handedness of the starting pitcher they will face tonight. We’ll also remove anyone who’s not listed in the projected starting lineup. This leaves us with the following: Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, Jesus Aguilar, Francisco Lindor, Enrique Hernandez, Jed Lowrie, Cody Bellinger, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, Nelson Cruz, Jose Ramirez, Jose Martinez, Mookie Betts, Edwin Encarnacion, Max Muncy, Manuel Margot, Eugenio Suarez, Javier Baez, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Judge, Kyle Seager and Robinson Chirinos.

Step 3 – Let’s remove anyone who’s facing a pitcher that has a hard hit rate of 35% or less. This leaves us with the following hitters: Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, Jesus Aguilar, Francisco Lindor, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, Jose Ramirez, Jose Martinez, Edwin Encarnacion, Manuel Margot, Javier Baez and Robinson Chirinos.

Step 4 – Lastly we want to narrow this group down based upon the exit velocity statistics of the starting pitcher they are facing. We’ll remove anyone facing a starting pitcher who’s percentage exit velocity over 95 mph is 35% or less. This leaves us with the following: Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, Jesus Aguilar, Francisco Lindor, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, Jose Ramirez, Jose Martinez, Edwin Encarnacion, Manuel Margot, Javier Baez and Robinson Chirinos.

The Bomb Barometer is picking : Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, Jesus Aguilar, Francisco Lindor, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, Jose Ramirez, Jose Martinez, Edwin Encarnacion, Manuel Margot, Javier Baez and Robinson Chirinos.

Good luck grinders.

About the Author

Comments

  • jsherman003

    • Blogger of the Month

    I’ve been thinking of changing this up a bit for next month. Step 3 and Step 4 typically don’t have much if any difference. Contemplating changing step 4 to something along the lines of eliminating anyone who’s hitting in a pitchers park. Let me know if anyone has any suggestions or feedback on that potential change?

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