Bomb Barometer - 6/28

In this search for home runs I wanted to run through a number of filters to see if we can narrow down to a small group of hitters that seem to be in the best position to hit home runs. I feel strongly that baseball is a sport of streaks and you need to try and ride those hot streaks while they last. Because of this I’m going to start my search by targeting hitters who’ve had home run success over the past week. From there we’ll try and use some statistics indicative of power and split success to narrow this field.

Note: Going forward I will be using two home runs over the past week as the first step in the filters. RG has phased out the statistics I was using for home runs over the past 14 days and the last week is probably more indicative of someone starting to get on a hot streak anyways.

Wednesday recap and overall record: We ended up with 13 hitters picked for Wednesday and Jesus Aguilar and Edwin Encarnacion both hit long balls. The 2 for 13 on Wednesday brings the cumulative result to 5 for 30 or 17% success rate.

Let’s run through the process for Thursday to see who the Barometer likes.

Step 1 – Start with hitters who have had 2 or more home runs over the past 7 days: Cody Bellinger, Jesus Aguilar, JD Martinez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Seager, Derek Dietrich, Luis Valbuena, Enrique Hernandez, Anthony Rendon, Nolan Arenado, Max Muncy, Mark Trumbo, Danny Valencia, Jed Lowrie, Starlin Castro, Jess Winker, Rhys Hoskins, Yulieski Gurriel, Mookie Betts, Matt Olson, Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia, Javier Baez, Chris Davis, Gorkys Hernandez, Gerardo Parra, Stephen Piscotty, Franklin Barreto, Wilson Contreras, Tim Anderson, Ryon Healy, Joc Pederson, Wilson Ramos, Carlos Santana and Nelson Cruz.

Step 2 – Remove anyone listed above who’s ISO is less than 200 versus the handedness of the starting pitcher they will face tonight. We’ll also remove anyone who’s not listed in the projected starting lineup. This leaves us with the following: Cody Bellinger, JD Martinez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Seager, Enrique Hernandez, Mark Trumbo, Jed Lowrie, Rhys Hoskins, Mookie Betts, Matt Olson, Christian Yelich, Javier Baez, Gorkys Hernandez, Wilson Contreras, Ryon Healy, Carlos Santana and Nelson Cruz.

Step 3 – Let’s remove anyone who’s facing a pitcher that has a hard hit rate of 35% or less. This leaves us with the following hitters: Cody Bellinger, JD Martinez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Seager, Enrique Hernandez, Mark Trumbo, Jed Lowrie, Mookie Betts, Matt Olson, Christian Yelich, Ryon Healy and Nelson Cruz.

Step 4 – Lastly we want to narrow this group down based upon the exit velocity statistics of the starting pitcher they are facing. We’ll remove anyone facing a starting pitcher who’s percentage exit velocity over 95 mph is 35% or less. This leaves us with the following: Cody Bellinger, JD Martinez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Seager, Enrique Hernandez, Mark Trumbo, Jed Lowrie, Mookie Betts, Matt Olson, Christian Yelich, Ryon Healy and Nelson Cruz.

The Bomb Barometer is picking : Cody Bellinger, JD Martinez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Seager, Enrique Hernandez, Mark Trumbo, Jed Lowrie, Mookie Betts, Matt Olson, Christian Yelich, Ryon Healy and Nelson Cruz.

For what it’s worth JD Martinez, Mark Trumbo, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich all get to play in hitter friendly ball parks today. This should help their chances even more.

Good luck grinders.

About the Author

Comments

  • christroi03

    I think you need to evaluate the pitcher the batter are facing.. Just because a hitter been scoring HR doesnt mean it will hit one when he faces a good Pitcher. Just a thought you might want to include R & RBI. Maybe H+R+RBI just for DFS..Happy griding

  • jsherman003

    • Blogger of the Month

    That is what I’m trying to do with step 3 and step 4. I’m looking at the starting pitchers hard hit rate and % of hits over 95mph in exit velocity. Both of those indicators that I’m filtering on should select pitchers who are more likely to give up home runs. Thanks for reading.

  • rannas23

    Where do you pull this information from?

  • jsherman003

    • Blogger of the Month

    The home run data over the past week comes from the Daily Research Console – Player Stats. Then the data on ISO and the hard hit % and exit velocity over 95 mph% comes from the Plate IQ tool. Everything used in this blog comes from RotoGrinders.

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