Bomb Barometer - 6/29

In this search for home runs I wanted to run through a number of filters to see if we can narrow down to a small group of hitters that seem to be in the best position to hit home runs. I feel strongly that baseball is a sport of streaks and you need to try and ride those hot streaks while they last. Because of this I’m going to start my search by targeting hitters who’ve had home run success over the past week. From there we’ll try and use some statistics indicative of power and split success to narrow this field.

Note: Going forward I will be using two home runs over the past week as the first step in the filters. RG has phased out the statistics I was using for home runs over the past 14 days and the last week is probably more indicative of someone starting to get on a hot streak anyways.

Thursday recap and overall record: We ended up with 11 hitters (Kyle Seager didn’t start) picked for Thursday and Nelson Cruz was the only home run. The 1 for 11 on Thursday brings the cumulative result to 6 for 41 or 15% success rate.

Let’s run through the process for Friday to see who the Barometer likes.

Step 1 – Start with hitters who have had 2 or more home runs over the past 7 days: Jesus Aguilar, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Curtis Granderson, Kike Hernandez, Nolan Arenado, Nelson Cruz, Francisco Lindor, Chris Davis, JD Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Alex Bregman, Edwin Encarnacion, Derek Dietrich, Danny Valencia, Jose Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Gregory Polanco, Starlin Castro, Christian Yelich, Jake Marisnick, Jose Peraza, Jose Bautista, Jed Lowrie, Nick Castellanos, Javier Baez, Robinson Chirinos, Logan Morrison, Joc Pederson, Jess Winker, Mark Trumbo, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Olson, Gerardo Parra, Manuel Margot, Justin Turner, Wilson Ramos, Franklin Barreto, Jackie Bradley, Matt Carpenter, Avisail Garcia, Yadier Molina, Manny Machado, Gorkys Hernandez, Wilson Contreras, Tim Anderson, Ryon Healy, Kyle Seager, Carlos Santana, Albert Almora and Yulieski Gurriel (phew that is a long list!)

Step 2 – Remove anyone listed above who’s ISO is less than 200 versus the handedness of the starting pitcher they will face tonight. We’ll also remove anyone who’s not listed in the projected starting lineup. This leaves us with the following: Jesus Aguilar, Cody Bellinger, Kike Hernandez, Nolan Arenado, Nelson Cruz, Francisco Lindor, Rhys Hoskins, Alex Bregman, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Gregory Polanco, Jed Lowrie, Nick Castellanos, Javier Baez, Robinson Chirinos, Mark Trumbo, Matt Olson, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Manny Machado, Ryon Healy, Kyle Seager and Carlos Santana.

Step 3 – Let’s remove anyone who’s facing a pitcher that has a hard hit rate of 35% or less. This leaves us with the following hitters: Jesus Aguilar, Nolan Arenado, Nelson Cruz, Rhys Hoskins, Alex Bregman, Jose Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Gregory Polanco, Nick Castellanos, Mark Trumbo, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Manny Machado, Ryon Healy, Kyle Seager and Carlos Santana.

Step 4 – Lastly we want to narrow this group down based upon the exit velocity statistics of the starting pitcher they are facing. We’ll remove anyone facing a starting pitcher who’s percentage exit velocity over 95 mph is 35% or less. This leaves us with the following: Jesus Aguilar, Nolan Arenado, Nelson Cruz, Rhys Hoskins, Alex Bregman, Jose Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Nick Castellanos, Mark Trumbo, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Manny Machado, Ryon Healy, Kyle Seager and Carlos Santana.

The Bomb Barometer is picking : Jesus Aguilar, Nolan Arenado, Nelson Cruz, Rhys Hoskins, Alex Bregman, Jose Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Nick Castellanos, Mark Trumbo, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Manny Machado, Ryon Healy, Kyle Seager and Carlos Santana.

Good luck grinders.

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