Boosting Your Roll Through Cash Games
As a small stakes player I am constantly overlooking cash games and chasing tournaments hoping to cash big for a boost in my bankroll. However, it can be recognized that many of the professionals here at Rotogrinders rely heavily on cash games to make a living. With that being said I wanted to take a look at the potential of strict cash game play and bankroll management.
Note: All simulations are done using R (a statistics programming language), I would be happy to share the code with you, its relatively short, just shoot a message or leave a comment. All simulations are repeated 10,000 times and the mean of the 10,000 simulations is taken to find the end roll. The simulation was done such that each slate was binomial, either you won or loss that slate. (i.e. If you have a 62% win rate a coin is flipped with probability of landing heads up 62% of the time, and if it lands Heads that day, you won every contest for the day).
Now let’s get to business, I will be giving examples for Fantasy Aces, DraftKings and FanDuel where 50 slates are played. I chose 50 slates as this can easily be done in two to two and a half months.
DraftKings Double Ups
This scenario consists of playing strictly in double ups, I used slightly lower win rates here versus the other analysis because the top 50% does not get paid.
As expected any slight edge that you can gain on the field gives a significant jump in winnings. Being able to find a 60% win rate in double ups at DraftKings, which is winning in 30 slates can result in 2.5x your starting bank roll. With a $250 starting roll, after 50 slates you can expect $647 final roll. A 60% win rate in double ups means being 30-20.
Aces 50/50 & H2H
This simulation was different from the others the pay structurea at Fantasy Aces (i.e. $2.75 to win $5). To account for this the bankroll in play resulted in winning .91 percent. If you have $11 in play, then you win $10.01, which I then used a floor function to make $10. With 50% of the field being paid here I used slightly higher cash rates.
As can be seen, it would take a greater than 55% win rate to become profitable here, its actually about 57%, which over 50 slates you would need to cash in 28 of those to make a profit. To have a 50% ROI (i.e. $50 profit on $100) 30 out of 50 games while if you can maintain a 65% win rate you are looking at $150 in profit on $100 initial bank roll. At a $250 bankroll that is $417 in profit.
FanDuel 50/50/ H2H
This would also be the same for DraftKings. The idea behind simulation was that you win 80% of your investment on the day. For example, if you play just a $10 H2H you win $18, or $8 profit. Once again, each day was treated as a weighted coin flip where you won everything or lost everything.
A win rate of 55% would return an expected loss, and a win rate of about 57% would be needed for profit. At 62% win rate, which seems obtainable, results in a nice 75% ROI at the $1,000 initial bankroll ($759 profit).
How Can I Use This?
All of these numbers are Expected Value. More can be read about expected value here. This was done with 10,000 simulations and these numbers aren’t a guarantee, but if you were to repeat this with the same win rate, initial roll many times these are numbers you should get. Looking back, this does show the benefits of strict bankroll management and consistent cash game play.
Say the average grinder, not player, with a $250 starting bank roll recognizes that he has a 62% cash rate on FanDuel. Over 50 slates, or about 2.5 months they can expect a profit of $174 dollars. A way to leverage this knowledge is to set aside your initial roll of $250 and lay aside $174. Following these guidelines for 50 slates $3 worth of tournaments could be played for each slate. At the end of $50 slates the player should expect to maintain their initial $250, without cashing in a single tournament. Even with a 20% cash rate in tournaments that is 10 cashes. Even if all the cashes are minimum, they profit $60, with a final roll of $310. With a few high cashes a bankroll can be safely boosted.
Please feel free to post any questions, comments or concerns you have about my methods. I would be open to running different simulations if that is something that interests anyone. I have thought of ways of bringing in 3-mans and 5-mans as many have thought of these as cash games as well, the same for triple-ups.
Let me know what you guys think and I hope you enjoyed my analysis.