bosoxfan0509's RBC Canadian Open Picks
I never imagined I’d be writing a DFS golf blog. I started playing DFS at the beginning of this baseball and have had moderate success with it, but I’m quickly becoming a much bigger fan of DFS golf. I am loving trying to figure out the role that stats play, whether recent form or past tournament history is more important, and the different strategies for lineup construction (and oh yeah, the $1 million prize pools don’t hurt). Last week only got me more hooked when the guy who said the course didn’t favor his style and didn’t sound confident about his chances of winning took home the Claret Jug.
But it’s time to move past the Open Championship (and Dustin Johnson letting me down again), and look forward to this week’s RBC Canadian Open. Although I’m very green to DFS golf, I feel like I’m learning a ton each week and hopefully progressing, so I wanted to share my thoughts and my 5 favorite golfers each week to help anyone interested and myself as well. If you’re reading this blog, I imagine you already know about the course, but I’ll give you quick overview of Glen Abbey GC. Glen Abbey is a 7,253 yard, Par 72, course. Glen Abbey is a little unique in that the course generally plays as a Par 73 with five par 5 holes, but it is adjusted for the PGA players which leaves three of the par 5 holes are on the back 9. With 97 bunkers on the course, scrambling and hitting greens have been keys for players to score well at Glen Abbey in the past.
With all of this in mind the key stats that I’ll be looking at this week are:
Par 5 Scoring
Birdie or Better %
Bubba Watson – $11,100: Bubba isn’t necessarily my favorite play of the week, but he’s my favorite $10k+ play of the week. I won’t be on too many of the guys who made the cut at the Open Championship because of the tough travel schedule they’ve had to face. Limiting my exposure to the players who made the cut eliminates all of the other $10k plus options for me, but Bubba might grade out as the top option in this tier for me even without the Open Championship factor. Bubba ranks 15th in scrambling, 7th in BOB %, and 1st in par 5 scoring. In the stats that I’m looking for, Bubba only grades low at 140th in proximity to hole, but he makes up for that by not making many bogeys and is ranked 7th in birdie:bogey ratio. If you exclude the two majors, Bubba has good recent form and has made his last 8 cuts with 5 Top-25 finishes. Combine his recent form with a 21st place finish at Glen Abbey in 2013, and Bubba makes for an excellent, safe play this weekend.
Ryan Palmer – $9,500: I mentioned that Bubba isn’t my favorite play of the week, and that’s because Ryan Palmer is. In the $9k-$10k price range, I project Holmes, Donald, Koepka, and DeLaet will all higher owned than Palmer, making him an excellent option for GPPs. Palmer is 3/3 in cuts at Green Abbey and hasn’t had a round over par at the course. He is an above average scrambler at 64th on tour and grades well in par 5 scoring at 38th and BOB% coming in at 25th. Vegas likes Ryan Palmer, making him 30/1 to win the tournament, and he also has excellent recent form, making 80% of his cuts on the season.
William McGirt – $7,600: McGirt is a guy I was hoping wouldn’t get much hype this week, and it seems like I’m getting my wish. McGirt finished 2nd at Glen Abbey in 2013, and his stats align perfectly for what I’m looking for at the course. He’s 13th in scrambling on the tour, 43rd in proximity, and 56th in par 5 scoring. I wish he was higher than 147th in BOB%, but he doesn’t get himself in much trouble and is 50th in birdie:bogey ratio. His recent form has been hit and miss, making only 67% of his cuts this year, but hopefully he can channel his 2013 experience and get a Top-10 finish for his price.
Rory Sabbatini – $7,100: Sabbatini isn’t the most consistent golfer, but he has made 4 of his last 6 cuts so hopefully he’s regaining his form. He had solid success at this course in 2013 finishing in 12th place, and his 2015 stats give me hope that he can put in a similar effort this year. Rory is an elite scrambler, ranking 11th on the tour which should help him avoid trouble this weekend. He’s also very capable of scoring well, ranked 45th in par 5 scoring and 41st in BOB%. Another stat I continue to reference is birdie:bogey ratio, and Rory is ranked 19th on tour which leads me to think he’s a safe bet for the weekend at a very affordable price.
Chad Collins – $6,300: Ok, maybe Chad Collins is my favorite pick this weekend; how is he only $6,300?! Before missing the cut at the John Deere Classic, Collins had made 8 consecutive cuts. He also grades out incredibly well in the stats I’m considering. Collins is 1st in scrambling, 26th in proximity to the hole, 56th in par 5 scoring, and 130th in BOB%. Similar to the guys before him, the low BOB% doesn’t concern me too much because he’s an elite scrambler and is ranked 22nd in birdie:bogey ratio. I will be overexposed to Collins, and all I can keep thinking is that DraftKings got him and Matt Every confused.
Bonus Picks: I wanted to limit it to 5, but there’s a couple of guys I feel I have to mention…
Scott Piercy – $8,500: I won’t spend much time here because he has been featured a lot around the DFS community this week, but I do like Piercy at Glen Abbey. Piercy won last week, has great recent form, and has made 2/2 cuts at Glen Abbey. My only concern is if he’ll be highly owned, which may make him just a cash play for me this weekend.
Martin Laird – $7,200: Laird has made 78% of his cuts this year and 32nd in scrambling, 56th in par 5 scoring, and 66th in BOB%. Laird would’ve made my Top-5, but it’s his first time at the course, so I liked the guys above who had more course history.
Please share any thoughts you have in the comments section on how I can improve this. I don’t want it to just be like every other golf write-up that the other guys put out, because frankly they’re obviously better at this than me, but I wanted a forum to share my thoughts and give my picks that are generally lower owned guys. I’ll be back next week with my picks for the Quicken Loans National tournament and results (hopefully good ones) from this week. Good luck to everyone this week.