Bright Ideas: 12/26 Mini-Memphis stack...am I Crazy?
I’ve been playing DFS for about 4 years now. I normally play small buy-in large field GPP’s and have found moderate success. I do not play DFS to get rich however I am still holding on to that dream. I play mostly for entertainment purposes, so this blog is not an attempt to find fantasy gold, but rather a way to spice things up a bit. I have always wanted to find a system that bucks the popular trend and goes against the grain so to speak. I know the importance of being contrarian and differentiating roster construction and I hope this helps me, or anyone else who struggles with this, kind of think outside the box. I will construct one large field $0.25 GPP entry and break it down. I will use FanDuel pricing, and again, this is for entertainment purposes only.
Reflection and Analysis for 12/25
As you are well aware I didn’t build a lineup for this blog on Christmas day. I wasn’t planning on playing at all but I was looking at the games, and feeling festive, so I decided to throw in my biggest lot of the year to date. I had $13 in play on FanDuel, and for me that is a sweat. I usually am only risking a fourth of that on a daily basis, but it was Christmas and I thought what the heck lets go big.
Before I get into how they did I wanted to mention that I decided to play at about 1:00 pm on Christmas day. Basically during the first quarter of the Bucks/Knicks game, so the tourney’s I could still get in were very limited. I did however find a couple that I liked so I loaded my bullets. In the afternoon slate which started at 3 pm, I loaded up a $2 100-man, and for just $.12 I threw in a chance at an entry into a $4.44 Clutch in January. For the 5:30 pm Late slate I loaded up a $2 single entry GPP, $1 100-man, and threw in a couple $.25 Everyone gets paid entries to make sure the day wasn’t a total loss. The After Hours slate is where I went big. I knew I would get to watch the final two games on the slate and wanted to enjoy my Holiday gambling so I loaded up a $7 bullet in the $150K GPP $25k to first and threw in a couple $.25 fadeaway entries because I am so fond of those.
I won’t breakdown all the lineups because each group had games it included and some it did not, so each of the 3 slates I played were different lineups. I will say this… if LeBron doesn’t get hurt in the third and continued his monster pace I would’ve done REALLY well. All total I had $13.12 in play. The Late slate was the worst as I finished 42nd in the 100 man and mid pack in the GPP, but did win $.30 for the EGP. The Afternoon slate I did fairly well finishing 8th in the 100 man for $8 and just missed winning the ticket to the $4.44 finishing 4th. The best slate and most rewarding of the night was the After Hours slate where I managed to finish 2415th out of 25,510 in the $7 GPP which got me $16, and the two fadeaway’s finished in the top 1100 for $.60 a piece.
Overall Christmas entries $13.12 Winnings $25.50
12/26 Wednesday 10 Game Slate
Back to a full slate of games which basically were the 20 teams that got to spend Christmas day with their families. I have to admit the Holiday break was just what I needed and I am felling refreshed and ready to finish out December with a bang! Let’s take a look at what the popular opinion is going to be for tonight’s slate.
There are a bunch of teams we all love seeing on the schedule and for that matter a bunch of teams people will target tonight. Teams like Detroit, Orlando, Indiana, Minnesota, Dallas, and both the teams in that late night hammer in Sacramento and the Clippers. It shows the highest total, and should be an up and down game. It is the chalk game of the night imo and as always I might have a piece, but will not make it a priority. With all of the bad defensive teams on the schedule there are 7 teams that will garner the most attention tonight. That is a lot. If you figure there are roughly 3 guys on each team that are worthy of playing (a stud, a mid-tier and a value) that puts 21 guys in a player pool right off the bat. I only need 9 so how do I narrow that down?
What I try to do for this blog is consider who will be the most popular, but looking at the DvA numbers there are so many ways a person can go on this slate. For that reason I am going to just stick with my gut, start with a couple contrarian studs and go from there. I do like a guy in Charlotte who fits the old centers vs. Brooklyn narrative that I am guessing will be the lowest owned C vs. Brooklyn of the year because he has such a capped ceiling, and low floor, but he has been playing better and, of course, he’s an Indiana kid.
SG – Victor Oladipo $8,500
Vic finds himself in a great spot tonight against the Hawks. Looking back this was the game in which he only played 4 minutes and left with knee soreness which caused him to miss the next 8 games. He gets an elite match-up against a Hawks team who struggles to even defend the towel boys so I am expecting big things from Oladipo tonight. The only thing that worries me here is that Atlanta is so bad anyone on the Pacers could have a good game and that might cut into his production if he isn’t needed to take over the game.
PG – Mike Conley $8,600
Is it just me or does it seem that Conley carries a GTD tag all the time. I can’t remember the last time I looked at his name and there wasn’t an injury report included. I do love this spot for him at home against a Cavs defense who doesn’t defend PG’s very well. Not to mention Memphis is never a sexy team to play in DFS, and for that reason I expect him to get overlooked slightly tonight. There are a bunch of good PG plays tonight and choosing the right ones could make the difference. I am labeling him the feature player of this build since he has that 55 FPt potential and should come in a pretty low ownership.
SF – Robert Covington $6,600
It has been a while since I was able to squeeze RoCo into this blog build. I always love playing this guy because he is so versatile in the way he gets fantasy points. Of course the best way he fills the stat sheet is with the stocks we get 3 points a piece for and against a Bulls team that is turnover prone and a little banged up he should get plenty. Thibs loves to run his starters in the ground and RoCo has seen his fair share since joining the team. He is averaging about 35 FPts since becoming a Timberwolf with a 46 FPt ceiling which would crush this salary.
PG – Derrick Rose $7,300
I am going to stay in this game for the next pick. Who doesn’t like D-Rose heading back into Chicago. Yes narrative street should be buzzing on this one, and I just think it is too good to pass up. He has that explosion type potential where he can reach a ceiling of over 60, and he is carrying a GTD which might make people hesitate a bit, or not even want to take the chance he sits. There are a couple of things that make this a contrarian play even with the narrative chalk. One he is a GTD, and two is the fact that Minnesota forgets to show up on the road. They are 3-13 on the road this year. Yikes. Better take the Bulls and the points.
PF – Montrezl Harrell $6,600
Harrell has slipped down to a price where if he only gets 22 minutes and 30 FPts it doesn’t kill us. I wanted to have a piece of this late night hammer game since it is always nice to still be earning points when a bunch of people are not. My only hope here is that this game ends up being like 125-132 or something. In this case Harrell should get plenty of opportunity and he did put up 35 FPts in only 25 minutes last time these two teams played.
Contrarian Plays, Mid-Tier Fillers, and Low Owned Options
SG – Garrett Temple $4,300
Temple is going to serve as the FUNT for this build. However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him put up 32 FPts tonight. He is in a pretty good match-up and has been playing very well. Here are his last 5 game logs… 27.3,15.4, 26.7, 24.7, 30.8, and 31.9. He is trending up and his minutes have averaged around 32 per game. At home against a weak Cavs team defense is a recipe for success I think.
PF – Jaren Jackson Jr. $6,600
Rounding out the mini-Memphis stack for this roster is Triple-J. I am guessing the match-up in this game is going to see him facing off against Cedi Osman with Nance Jr. having to deal with Gasol. I like this match-up much better and as becoming cliche with this kid, if he can keep out of foul trouble he should have a good game. I do have one worry with this Memphis stack and that is that it does not include Gasol. I played him a few builds ago and he bombed in a great spot, so the way my luck goes, he puts up a triple double tonight in route to blowing out the Cavs and Triple-J, Temple, and Conley only see 22 minutes and none in the 4th.
SF – Rudy Gay $6,200
This pick is more based upon the fact that Denver is dealing with multiple injuries than it is that he has been playing well. However the Spurs are coming together as a team and I think if they are going to do anything to make the playoffs or this year for that matter, Gay is going to have to be a big part of it. Seriously, with DeRozan, Gay, and Aldridge when they get Murray and Gasol back that is a loaded starting 5.
C – Cody Zeller $5,300
The match-up here is elite. The player is not. No offense Cody, but you just don’t see enough court time or usage for the normal amount of people to be on this center vs. Brooklyn narrative. He does have 40 FPt potential as he showed a few games ago. This game is in Brooklyn which I think only helps his value. He is a scrapper and will out hustle Allen all night. If the Charlotte guards are making their shots early on this game might get out of hand. But if they are not I can see Zeller reaching a double double and putting up enough to reach value here needing 26.5 FPts.
So that makes the blog build look like this….
As always don’t forget to hit that like button if you enjoyed the read. Good Luck Tonight!!