Bright Ideas: 12/28 Beware the Game Log
I’ve been playing DFS for about 4 years now. I normally play small buy-in large field GPP’s and have found moderate success. I do not play DFS to get rich however I am still holding on to that dream. I play mostly for entertainment purposes, so this blog is not an attempt to find fantasy gold, but rather a way to spice things up a bit. I have always wanted to find a system that bucks the popular trend and goes against the grain so to speak. I know the importance of being contrarian and differentiating roster construction and I hope this helps me, or anyone else who struggles with this, kind of think outside the box. I will construct one large field $0.25 GPP entry and break it down. I will use FanDuel pricing, and again, this is for entertainment purposes only.
Reflection and Analysis for 12/27
Well I won’t spend too much time here today since yesterday’s blog was such a train wreck. I was unaware of the news that Beasley’s mother had passed and he was away from the team. That threw me into panic mode adjusting lineups without really thinking about what I was doing. However I will say this… when building a roster it can be very fruitful to find hidden gems like that. Nobody has thought about Beasley for most of the year, and he is one of those players that has talent but is just mired in a situation that doesn’t afford him much playing time if any at all. There are a handful of players like this sprinkled throughout the NBA that are what could be considered “playoff roster spots” They are veterans that are on the roster, rarely see the floor, but are there if needed come crunch time. Finding and playing one of these rare occasions can be very rewarding so I am not ashamed of the thought, just ashamed I didn’t do it the due diligence it deserved.
The two lineups I built for yesterday did ok, but neither cashed since the cash line was 321.7. What I did notice was how heavily targeted the Lakers were. If that game doesn’t end up as competitive as it did then I would guess both of these lineups I built would’ve cashed. Lonzo and Kuzma were pretty much at 50% ownership, and none of the Lakers starters were below 37% besides maybe Zubac. That was definitely the chalk game last night.
November Total: $2.98 LOSS
Overall December Total after 18 builds: UP $.45
12/28 Friday 10 Game Slate
Back to another 10 Game Friday Slate. I have managed to keep this blog build in the black for most of the month, but I was hoping to erase some of that November deficit at some point. Still have 4 days to eat away another $2.53.
At first glance, this sets up just like last night. There are a number of ways to go and interestingly enough we have a few games that are rematches from a couple days ago in BKN/CHA, SAS/DEN and DAL/NOP. Game log watchers love this. It is the most recent sample you can get from a DFS perspective. The only thing I would be cautious about is that they are HOME/ROAD B2B’s and that can completely change the complexion of the game. Take the Nets and Hornets for example. They played an overtime game that saw some where around 260 points if im not mistaken. (not going to look it up) Can we expect that again? Probably not. There will be some results that will be chased by DFS’ers for those two teams.
I guess what I am saying is take it in context and consider the scenario. Am I saying Anthony Davis is a bad play tonight, absolutely not. Let’s take two players for an example. Anthony Davis and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. AD scored 60.6 an RHJ scored 50. AD did his damage on the road, while RHJ was at home. AD is averaging 61.5 FPts per game while RHJ is at 23.5. I think more realistic expectations are that AD repeats his performance than does RHJ. So basically playing RHJ is chasing points while playing AD is just playing AD. If we play players from these 3 games we have to consider the context.
There are two games that show large spreads and one is the lowest total on the board which makes it an ugly game from a DFS perspective. The CLE/MIA game should be avoided by many tonight and that might be a good place to find a few contrarian players. The other large spread is ATL/MIN but that game carries the highest total on the board so it will be more heavily targeted.
The two chalk games imo will be the DAL/NOP and LAC/LAL games. The latter for obvious reasons, and the former because of the 119-122 total we saw a couple days ago.
There are a couple of spots I want to attack tonight with this blog. One is a stud center in a blow out game, and the other is one of my favorite players to roster but just hasn’t had that explosion game recently. I will fill in with a few mid-tier players from ugly games, and a value PG in San Antonio, and some guys that get overlooked on a nightly basis.
C – Karl-Anthony Towns $9,600
KAT will be the feature player for this build. He gets an elite match-up against the Hawks and has been playing great sans Butler. He always has that 20/20 potential and tonight could be another big night. I am expecting a few savvy DFS players to be on Jokic tonight and I would be lying if I didn’t consider him for this roster. It is a good habit to be on players in bounce back spots against teams they recently put up a dud against and we get that tonight with the Joker. However, I decided to fade Jokic for this reason… I think the Spurs have figured something out. I am going to bet that their defensive revelation is not a fluke and they hold the Joker and the Nuggets down again tonight. So I will take the next best spot for a C on this slate. Towns vs. the Hawks. Hopefully this game stays closer than the spread.
SG – Victor Oladipo $8,700
Vic is probably the one player I have used the most for this blog and rightly so. I am enormously bias and love my Hoosiers and Pacers. He hasn’t really let me down, but he really hasn’t sent me up the leaderboards either. There has to be a breakout 70 FPt game coming from him and I will be on him if I have to play him every time he is on the schedule until that happens. He does get a favorable match-up against the Pistons who he has played well against in the past. The game is at home, and he is carrying a GTD tag which should scare some people off. As if his recent game logs wouldn’t do that anyway. It’s that time Dipo…. time to remind everyone of the All-Star that you are.
PG – Kris Dunn $7,600
People have gotten in the habit of attacking the Bulls this year and I personally think that is about to change. The Bulls are becoming healthy now that they will have Dunn, LaVine, and Markkanen in the lineup together which hasn’t happened all that much this year. They get to go into Washington which basically should have a sign on the visiting locker room door that says, “No Defense Allowed in this Building.” Dunn has a steep price and his value gets hurt a tad with LaVine back on the floor and in the starting lineup, but what I like about Dunn is his stocks potential. And Wall is careless with the ball at times.
SG – Andrew Wiggins $6,100
Like KAT, Wiggins gets an elite match-up against the Hawks tonight. There will be plenty of people on D-Rose but I am going to side with the cheaper of the two. Wiggins is very scoring dependent but when he gets hot he can put up 35 in a heartbeat. Honestly I just like this game environment. I think Wiggins plays better when he can play fast and that is what he will get in this game. The Hawks play at a pretty fast pace which has Minnesota seeing the biggest pace bump on the slate at +5.4 which is crazy. I think this adds up to good nights for Wiggins and the Big KAT.
SF – Justise Winslow $6,500
Winslow has shown up on the blog build a few times this year to mixed reviews. Sometimes he’s on, sometimes he’s not. What I like about this pick is the comment from Spoelstra about Winslow being the starting point guard. Earlier in the year it was Richardson manning this spot but I think they have realized moving him off the point doesn’t hurt his production much while moving Winslow too the point increases his production quite a bit. Its a win win. What I never used to like about playing Winslow was the minutes he saw. He would come off the bench, or start and still only see 22 minutes. In the last three games he is averaging over 30 and if he can get 30 minutes at the point against Cleveland we may rethink the ceiling this kid has.
Contrarian Plays, Mid-Tier Fillers and Low Owned Options
SF – Harrison Barnes $5,700
The game a few days ago against the Pelicans Barnes didn’t play very well. I am going to attribute some of that to the Luca Doncic show, and with DSJ returning tonight that might force the Mavs to rely more on their offensive sets and less on Doncic isolation and P&R.
PF – James Johnson $5,100
I used to love rostering this guy. Last year he was so solid. This year he started out injured and was eased back into the rotation so slowly that here we are 18 games later and he is finally seeing close to 30 minutes. He is a stat machine and plays all over the floor, and tonight against the Cavs I am hoping he and Winslow can wrestle this game into submission.
PF – Jerami Grant $5,700
Grant has quietly been putting up some great numbers for a Mid-Tier PF. Here are a few of his recent game logs… 39.8/28.4/31.4/27.9/16.9/37.3/20.4 in his last 7 games. He has also averaged about 32 minutes this year so he has finally gotten the run and made the most of it. Tonight he gets a great match-up against the Suns. It is a road game and he did only score 20 FPts last time they faced them, but this is the Suns we are talking about, and I like the chance Grant can reach his 28 FPt value tonight.
PG – Bryn Forbes $4,800
Rounding out the roster is the FUNT in Forbes. He did just put up almost 30 against the Nuggets Wednesday and even though this game is in Denver, Forbes has been getting solid minutes and is a great shooter so I am expecting a repeat performance from him tonight. And if he duds so be it.
So that makes the blog build look like this…
As always don’t forget to hit that like button if you enjoyed the read. Good Luck Tonight