Building Lineups for the Small Guy
This is my first post, just wanted to share somethings I have experienced with DFS. This in no way makes me an expert but just giving my strategies for the small guy or in this case the casual player.
Many of us including myself play DFS for the casual purposes. We dream big and want to win the top prize. We all would love to win the million dollar maker in NFL but in reality its really hard to win because one we may not have the money to spend to build the max amount of the lineups and two we also may not have knowledge or strategy to build unique lineups or take certain risks that may make a difference between cashing big and just cashing. There is a reason that some people are more successful in the long run because they have good strategies and put in lots of hours to build their lineups. Having money is only part of the solution.
This blog is for the casual player, the ones that may play consistently but never look to spend lots of money but want to have a good time. The guys that put in 6-7 lineups instead of the max 150 that the NBA DFS lets you. I am one of those guys that may spend between $10-20, maybe more on a occasion. But really looking to have fun.
For me I found that in the past when i play like 6 lineups, I tend to go all over the place thinking that the more players I cover the better chance I have to win the big prize but in reality what happens a lot is that I get a few of the picks right in each lineup and then tend to just cash out. Thats fine and all but in reality its not effective.
Recently what I have been doing is more of what the big players do and that is pick some core players and build around those guys, less variation between lineup and more correlation between picks. I found that in making 6 lineups, I should look to have between 3-5 players almost locked in all the lineups. Its a risk for sure but what I realized is that if those picks are correct I give myself a better shot at the bigger prizes.
In reality making 6 different lineups is not effective because even if you get one pick right, you now need all the other 7 players to be right as well. Thats tough to do. Building a lineup instead with 3-5 core players that you lock in gives you a better shot. With the research I put in, I have found that I already have a few players that I love that night, so just locking them up is not as big of a risk. The reason for locking a few players is because if those guys go off, you all of sudden have a better chance at the top spot. Now you have 6 different lineups that potentially could be successful. The odds are more in your favor, you now would need to get like 3 players correct but have 6 lineups to do that with. The potential to cash big is there.
Of course there are risks because by building lineups this way you now need those core players to do well. If they flop it means that you probably won’t win the money. The reality is that using core players and less variation gives you more chances to win one of the bigger cash amounts. Instead of getting $8-10 in the $4 tournaments, you could win a $100 or more.
For casual players the mentality is to play it safe and cover as many players or games as possible. But in reality the more narrow your picks and games you choose to stack, the better chance to win the big money.
Stay tuned for my next post. Hope you enjoyed it and have fun playing DFS.