The dream is always the same.
Everything I do turns to gold. My lineup of stars and scrubs hits big. I mean really big. I top 400 points and take home first place in the Mega Slam on Fan Duel and win the big money. My life, which is somewhat crappy at the time, is miraculously fixed in one fell swoop. All my struggles will be no longer. The visit to the dentist I’ve needed to make but couldn’t afford is a problem of the past. The arguments with my girlfriend over whether I should get a real job are now just figments of my imagination. Life is good. Life is grand.
And then I wake up.
People probably aren’t going to like this blog because it’s a hard dose of reality. It’s not a fairy tale. It’s what happens to most people who play daily fantasy sports. I’ve gone busto. Top 200 in the Player of the Year race. Top 500 in the NBA. And my DFS accounts are down to the felt. $55 to be precise.
Now to be honest, I’m still up in my DFS play. I’ve taken out more than I put in. But after my last cash out of $1,000 from Fan Duel… to pay bills I needed to pay due to real life work drying up of late… I left myself with a bankroll of $750. Which is now gone.
Why? Variance. Bad bankroll management. Picking the wrong players at the wrong times. Mainly bad bankroll management as I thought I was infallible. I’d never lost more than 1/3 of what I put into play on a given day so I felt like it was okay to put 25% of my bankroll at risk on a daily basis. That worked fine until I ran into a bad day… and another bad day… and another. Suddenly that $750 was down to $255. I put another $100 at risk and went 0-fer. That’s right, I didn’t win a solitary cent. Down to $200, I did it again and the unthinkable happened. I had back-to-back 0-fer’s.
Raging full-blown monkey tilt.
For the first time in four months, I took a day off from DFS. I took the weekend off. And now I sit here writing this telling you about the reality of DFS. Most people are going to lose at this game. The rake is too high. The variance at times impossible to overcome. But mainly people are impetuous and do as I did and make mistakes. I know I’m not alone. It’s just not something people want to admit or discuss openly because it’s not “good for the game.”
Go back to some of the original RotoGrinder podcasts of some of the big names of the time that were interviewed. Look up their recent results – I did. Some will still be doing well but the majority haven’t played in a while. They’ve either moved on to bigger and better things or more likely have gone busto. It’s the inevitable conclusion for most people who will play DFS. And while people hate to make the comparisons to poker it’s usually what happens to most players. In the end, rake wins. It almost always does.
I’m still going to play DFS, starting from scratch once again, but I need to learn from my mistakes. I need to learn to adhere to the bankroll management principles that made me successful when I first started played. No one is infallible in this game and owning up to that is the first step I need to take.
Dreams are dreams.
Reality is reality.