Capps' Crucial Plays for Week 10

I realize the moniker “Core Plays” is already spoken for, so I’m giving out my CRUCIAL plays from now on. I like this word, “crucial.” It has a ring of urgency to it. Anyway, yours truly is a chalky player, I make no apologies. At the very least, maybe you’ll see who might be popular so that you can zig while the field is zagging. I am attempting to turn over a new leaf and not just roll with the crowd all the time, so I’ll be doubling back around after lock to comment with ownership percentages on each player. Let’s do this.

WR A.J. Brown ($5,500) vs. Chiefs – The Titans promoted wideout Cody Hollister from the practice squad on Saturday, meaning Corey Davis is definitely in doubt as far as suiting up goes. Brown would be a solid play anyway, but the absence of Davis and the low price for Brown have me excited for his prospects. Brown should be the main man for Ryan Tannehill in this one, but taking a shot on TE Jonnu Smith in your lineups makes sense as well. But if I have to pick one, give me Brown.

TE Mike Gesicki ($5,300) at Colts – Gesicki caught 6-of-6 balls for 95 yards last week as Miami won their first game over the Jets. Meanwhile, these same Colts were busy allowing a useful 5-30-1 line to Vance McDonald. Gesicki is a great bet for additional volume this week, as the Colts have lost WR Preston Williams to injured reserve and RB Mark Walton to suspension. DeVante Parker is a worthy and popular play today, but I really like the upside of Gesicki and his athleticism this week, which is paired with the gunslinging tendencies of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Colts like to funnel plays towards the middle of the field anyway, an area that should benefit Gesicki. The numbers bear out this tendency, as the Colts are bottom-10 with regard to receptions, yardage, and scores allowed to enemy tight ends in 2019—and many of the teams worse than Indy have played an extra game. I like Gesicki for $200 more than Jonnu Smith on FanDuel (I’d rather have A.J. Brown if picking from that game).

WR Christian Kirk ($5,700) at Buccaneers – Larry Fitzgerald didn’t do much in the injury absence of Kirk, and now Kirk gets the Buccaneers pass defense, which is a sieve. Only the Giants, Texans, and Dolphins have allowed more scores to wide receivers this year (all tied at 13). The Bucs have allowed 12 such scores, and my money is on Kirk to be that guy today, not Fitzy. Kirk has seen double the amount of volume than Fitzgerald over the last two weeks (16 to 8). The Cardinals do get David Johnson back, and the trade for Kenyan Drake a week ago paid immediate dividends. However, the Bucs are great to attack with receivers, as the Bucs run defense has only allowed 3.4 Y/A in 2019, the 2nd best mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bucs have allowed the 6th most yardage in the NFL this year, and all five teams that have allowed more have played an extra game…

WR Davante Adams ($7,800) vs. Panthers – With the status of the best Panthers CB (James Bradberry) legitimately questionable, I’m firing up Adams in his second week back from injury. He would make sense anyway given his talent level, but if Bradberry is limited (or winded after missing practice all week) then the Packers can take away the strength of the Carolina defense, which is pass D. I will definitely have some exposure to this game in Week 10.

DEF Buffalo Bills ($4,500) at Browns – Does OBJ make sense for you folks who enter far more lineups than I do? Absolutely. However, I am banking on the larger body of work with the Bills, as well as the ineptitude displayed by Cleveland so far in 2019. This game has an implied total of 39.5, the lowest of the week. yes, Nick Chubb is a concern, and I’ll have some exposure to him this week. But if I have to pick a side, I am picking Buffalo. If I can’t interest you in the Bills, find $100 extra and work your way up to the Rams, who are also on the road, but to Pittsburgh. This is the range I’m living in for my defense this week, with the New York football Giants also in consideration at $4,500 against the Jets in a battle for New York.

Those are five plays I’m definitely working in this week! Kirk is sure to be popular, but the rest I’ll be curious to see just how much. Who did I miss and who do you HAVE to play this week?

About the Author


  • hecapps

    • Blogger of the Month

    Rough day at the office. Ownership in FD Milly:

    AJ Brown 8.4% (2.2 FDP)
    Davante Adams 10.5% (15.3 FDP)
    Christian Kirk 27.7% (34.8 FDP)
    Mike Gesicki 8.7% (2.3 FDP)
    Bills defense 4.2% (5 FDP)

    Note: With the Stafford being out news, I switched off to the Bears (21.0%). That was a bit better than the Bills, who managed only 5 points. Unfortunately I didn’t do much with the $300 savings.

    Winning lineup in FD Milly had Lamar, D Henry, A Jones, G Tate, M Thomas, C Kirk, OJ Howard, Damien Williams, and the Ravens defense.

    I Pegged Kirk, and I had a TEN element (AJ Brown instead of D Henry) as well as a GB element (Davante instead of Aaron Jones). Also punted TE with Gesicki…instead of stomaching the OJ Howard play.

    I wasn’t in on Damien Williams, will have to see what his price is for Week 11 now that I’m a week behind…

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