CarlitosWay's Tiers to Remember - NBA picks 1/7

This series of blogs will highlight my top 3 picks in each positional category categorized through the following options: stud (>8K), mid-tier (5K-8K), sleeper (<5K). Finding spots where you can take advantage of (whether price, role, injury news, etc.) is key to your success.

Wednesday Recap

Another good day. The only thing that messed me up was the Clippers situation. Under the impression that one of their stars would sit, I had my mind on either Kennard or Lou for value. Unfortunately, news broke late that they would all play, and I had no better choices to pivot. However, the rest of my line was so good that it didn’t even hurt much as both lines stayed in the green. I have no idea why Beal and Embiid were so low owned, I also don’t get how people would fade Cousins yesterday. The mix was on the right side of the slate this time around.

*Based mostly on those mentioned in previous day’s blog

January 7 Picks

.Irving should be chalk again with Durant out. His price is still low to take advantage of this situation. If McCollum continues to be priced $1K less than Lilliard, I will always continue using the former over the latter. They own the same usage rate and their production is identical. One of James or Davis will go off – James is the safer choice, Davis is more of the GPP play given the current performances to start the season. Embiid is again priced too low for today’s matchup in my opinion. It’s tough counting on a lot of minutes for him on a back to back set but as long as the game stays close, this is another game where he should smash his price tag.

Any time one of the big two are out for the Nets, you usually turn to LeVert as he will be priced as if those two are active. The surprising part about last game is that Steve Nash decided to keep playing him off the bench. If it wasn’t for his explosion late in the game, he probably wouldn’t have crushed his value given the poorer performance DFS wise in the first half. So there is some risk if he does not start again, but the bench usage is all his regardless. Every time I play Russell he decides to have a poor game – well, I am back to the well on this one. Portland is a juicy matchup and with Towns still out, Russell makes every sense at this price given his prior two performances as he might be turning the corner. Brooks should be much more free to get his shot efficiency up today, expect him to break the 30 fantasy point mark. Osman has been pretty impressive in terms of the amount of field goal attempts he is taking with all the injuries to the Cavs, and the price is still there for the taking making for a nice GPP shot. And then we get Nurkic, who still limited on minutes, can crush in tonight’s matchup just like he did against the Wolves in under 30 minutes.

More value will open up as injury news comes in. For now, here is what I see. KCP, if healthy, is below $4K. He usually starts and his floor is around 20 fantasy points – easy pick. Then we look towards Hernangomez again – it will be a play everyone goes back to in cash. We will have to await some injury news on the Sixers side in regard to Curry – if he’s out, that’s a nice bump for Milton who will then be more viable at his price. A bigger bump for Green who from my point of view is under priced and will be a popular cash play – these are the kind of nights where he scores under 10 fantasy points so buyer beware. Lastly, if Cauley-Stein starts again, he will definitely be considered, although his matchup against Jokic isn’t the best for him. Otherwise, you can look towards Dieng.

Best of luck to all! Follow me on twitter @CarlitosWay_DFS.

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