CarlitosWay's Tiers to Remember - NBA picks 11/16
New look, new take. This series of blogs will highlight my top 3 picks in each positional category categorized through the following options: stud (>8K), mid-tier (5K-8K), sleeper (<5K). Finding spots where you can take advantage of (whether price, role, injury news, etc.) is key to your success.
Decent day, there were areas where you had to pick from and start from there. There was a good amount of regular usage players that had a price drop. Then if you had the right value, you would have succeeded. Tonight’s slate is huge, and after Harden, there are numerous options to go with. Don’t be afraid to be different and definitely do not be afraid to avoid the obvious chalk, which sometimes isn’t good chalk.
*Based mostly on those mentioned in previous day’s blog
: Lilliard – POR – $8.7K – If you want to go a bit more balanced tonight, Lilliard is a good starting point. He is priced at what looks like to be his lowest tag of the season. Don’t focus too much on his recent outing, he faced a Raptors team who held Leonard and LBJ to under 20 real points and a poor field goal percentage. Lilliard makes a ton of sense tonight with Portland needing a win badly.
: Teague (if Wiggins out) – MIN – $5.1K or Dragic (if Butler out) – MIA – $5.7K – Doing these articles so early is tough especially in NBA when everyone’s status is up in the air. Wiggins had to attend to a grievance missing out on yesterday’s game, we do not know if he will be back tonight. Teague still is not priced appropriately for someone who owns a 25% usage rate with Wiggins out. Even if Wiggins plays, I think Teague is still a good play at his price. As for Dragic, him and Butler both have a bug so perhaps both might not play. If Butler does not play, Dragic should enter the starting lineup against a Pelicans team who gets a lot of points scored on. Dragic, for his price, is underpriced as well in such a scenario.
: McConnell – IND – $3.7K – With Brogdon doubtful, I’m loving McConnell way more than Aaron or Justin Holiday. Aaron is $1.2K more expensive believe it or not. I trust McConnell more so I will leave you with that. Problem is he is questionable and if he is ruled out, this chalk Holiday day is probably something I don’t want part of especially in GPP’s. Milwaukee is tough with or without Middleton. If I’m wrong, it’s all good.
Other notables: Trae 9.4K, Bledsoe 7.3K
: Harden – HOU – $12.2K – Lock him in, enough said!
: Nunn – MIA – $5.8K – Huge pace-up game for the Heat and for a guy who shoots a ton, Nunn may be priced a bit too low. A lot of if’s here, but he should meet value regardless if Butler and Dragic are in. Winslow is out firstly, so that already benefits him. Herro is questionable too, if he’s out clearly that boosts Nunn more. If the aforementioned two are out, Nunn is lock and load 100%. The Heat are problematic so hopefully news comes out before the slate starts. But yes, Nunn is at an efficient price tonight. By the way, I’m leaving out a lot of good plays who are just priced higher such as FVV, Lou, and Graham.
: Rivers – HOU – $3.7K – Here’s another if. Only if House is out, Rivers will enter the starting lineup. And that’s the only way I would play him. Cheap value who actually gets touches with Harden on the floor. He is still a risk regardless. If House plays, well at $3.9K, I think I would lock him in as not only does he score, but he grabs those boards too. In that case, Moore would be decent in this spot if Ingram is actually ruled out.
Other notables: Graham 7.2K, VanVleet 7.1K, Lou 7.4K (if Pg or Klaw out), McCollum 6.5K, Doncic 10.3K, White 4.5K (if Murray out), Herro 4.6K
: Giannis – MIL – $12K – Most likely nobody will take him because of Harden. If you really think Harden is going to flop hard, then yes Giannis is the logical pivot. But you can’t expect Harden to mess it up without RWB and Capela on the floor. His usage should hit 50% tonight haha.
: Ingram – NO – $6.9K – This is a weird price tag to see considering Ingram takes close to 20 shots per game. Miami is tough to play against for sure. But at a price like this, and a player who has had 31% usage over the last few games he has played, it seems like a mis-price. He would get an upgrade if Butler misses out as he wouldn’t have to deal with him being on his arse all game long.
: Tucker – HOU – $4.4K – His price dropped even further tonight, even with knowing Capela and RWB would be out. That’s strange. He will play close to 40 minutes and will be needed to combat the size of Towns at the very least. He’s more of a safe play than upside play, but either way, it makes sense to roster him tonight more than last night.
Other notables: Butler 7.6K, Morris 6.0K, McLemore 3.8K (if House out), Moore 4.5K (if Ingram out)
: Siakam – TOR – $9.2K – Obviously if going balanced, you probably want a piece of the Raptors who are losing players each and everyday. Siakam is the go-to guy even more now and his price seems a bit too low. If going balanced, this is a great piece. There is no denying that.
: Paul George (if Leonard sits) – LAC – $7.9K – Here’s another play which is underpriced if Klaw does sit out again. We saw what PG13 did in limited minutes, he was a monster. Expect the same from him again if the other superstar does not play. However, if Klaw does play then we need to see how the Clips will operate under this monster duo. If that is the case, my next pick in this cat would go to Randle at $6.4K. I don’t know why his price keeps dropping even though he is consistent in minutes in the 30’s. Sure, his ceiling has not been hit but if he is going to hit 30 at that price, I will gladly take him. Plus Charlotte is a team you can take advantage of in size.
: House – HOU – $3.9K – If he starts/plays, like I said above, not only will he be needed for the secondary scoring, he will be needed to grab boards with Capela out. Just look at his game logs, they are pretty balanced and I think his price is this low because DK is not expecting him to play. If he’s out, Covington looks like a good play at his price which is the same last night only if Wiggins is out again. A lot of if’s continue to be the trend tonight. Considering he is out now, Covington looks like the play here if Wiggins is out.
Other notables: K. Williams 5.3K, Leonard 9.9K, Parker 7.0K, Covington 4.8K
: Towns – MIN – $10.1K – This is an easy one to spot, Another pivot from Harden or if going balanced, you might want to start here. With no Capela, I think he should have a very good day. In fact, everyone should think that way.
: Aldridge – SA – $6.6K – I don’t think LMA’s price is going to rise this year. Anyways, I’ll gladly take advantage of that. You know he usually shows up against his former team and this is actually a plus matchup for him. Murray probably won’t play so more usage to LMA, at the very least in the scoring department. I like his price tonight, boosted by his greater role. Let’s go!
: Robinson – NYK – $4.5K – This is an area I probably won’t go but if I had to pick a guy under $5K, it would probably be Robinson. The risk is Fizdale. He seems to always start Robinson when healthy but depending on how it goes, it’s a possibility that he sits for the rest of the game. The rotation here is brutal, but his price seems so low in a smash spot. For GPP’s it makes total sense.
Other notables: Favors 6.2K, Adebayo 7.5K, Harrell 6.9K, Sabonis 8.5K