CarlitosWay's Tiers to Remember - NBA picks 11/18
New look, new take. This series of blogs will highlight my top 3 picks in each positional category categorized through the following options: stud (>8K), mid-tier (5K-8K), sleeper (<5K). Finding spots where you can take advantage of (whether price, role, injury news, etc.) is key to your success.
Took Sunday off so reflecting on the Saturday slate which went quite well. I hardly play much over the weekends as I’m not sitting at home lounging after a brutal workday. Nonetheless, I try to get a few lines in just to see what happens. Once again if you take into account the average FPts/value totals, you can see that some very good lines could have been made with only the players suggested in the bottom chart. This is how I operate each and every slate that I play. With injury news coming late though, you are sometimes forced to go out of your way and select the new value that opens up that was not around in the morning/afternoon when I actually built it. Nevertheless, usually your first picks are always the better picks, and with injury news, they sometimes lose ownership which can give you a slight advantage in GPP’s if they go off as I estimated. This way of analyzing slates has worked out for me, so it will continue!
*Based mostly on those mentioned in previous day’s blog
: Harden – HOU – $12K – Until he shows signs that $12K is too much to pay up for, I will keep rolling him out, so as long as there is decent value. And that is the problem today, there may not be enough value for us to go this high and a balanced approach tonight might make more sense. Nonetheless, Harden is a top pick and we don’t really have to explain why. If going more balanced, I’m looking at Irving at only $8.5K which is his lowest on the season – he is questionable though. Lilliard has seen his price decrease so lots of people will take advantage of him even though his usage rate over his last four has dropped to 22.4%.
Brogdon – IND – $6.5K – As long as he’s healthy tonight after recovering from back spasms, he is also at a low price for what he means to this Indiana offense. He posted a 50 DK point night last time out against the Nets. He’s in play due to his price dropping a bit too much while owning a 30% usage rate before he got hurt. All depends if he plays now. Looks like he is out, so A. Holiday at $5.5K becomes the leading replacement candidate here especially with McConnell and Lamb ruled out already. UPDATE: With Irving out, give me all the Dinwiddie!
: Wanamaker – BOS – $3.5K – By no means am I recommending this pick, it is solely to fit in with this category. However, on a more bright side, he has played more consistent minutes with Hayward out hitting at least 15 DK points in his last four. If paying up high, you can probably take a risk with him here.
Other notables: Irving 8.5K, Lilliard 8.6K, RWB 8.3K, Bledsoe 7.2K, Kemba 8.4K, Paul 6.6K
: Doncic – DAL – $9.8K – This is a great guy to start a balanced line with tonight. You have to be amazed at this kid’s talent. He has become another triple-double machine in today’s era of basketball. He has a lot of upside for his price tonight, so if fading Harden, this looks like a great alternative.
: VanVleet – TOR – $7.4K – Until Lowry comes back, I think you can feel confident in playing FVV every night he is out there. He is a 35+ minute man leading the point for a strong team. At a decreased price among all other guards on the slate, he can easily be taken for security. He also has a 50 DK point ceiling. In a soft matchup tonight, his efficiency should take flight along with the rest of the team – more assist potential in other words. I do like SGA tonight though too for a discount.
: Davis – TOR – $3.5K – Here is another pick which is not recommended but fits the category right now. Tongight’s softer match-up might allow Nurse to release the leash on some of these young bench players and Davis would be the first one up. He has been solid in his limited time on the floor, from rebounding to assists to scoring. There is no true back up to FVV so he kind of fills the hole. If the Raps can get out to a good lead throughout the game, Davis should secure more minutes.
Other notables: Lou 7.4K (if Klaw out), McCollum 7.3K, Lavine 6.9K, Mitchell 7.9K, Smart 6.4K, SGA 6.3K, Dinwiddie 6.0K, Holiday 5.5K (if Brogdon out), Monk 5.0K
: Giannis – MIL – $11.3K – You are getting a $700 discount from Harden. Not sure if that helps but you know Giannis will put up big numbers as well, even more so with Middleton out. There is no right or wrong between those two and for those trying to squeeze value, he will be another popular stud to begin with.
: George – LAC – $8.1K – As I do not care for anyone in this spot between the $5-7.9K range I set for myself with this blog, I’m going a bit out of the confines ($200 bucks only) and adding George here. To me, he is a huge lock if Leonard misses out again. Plus, low and behold he is facing his former team. Even in limited minutes he has destroyed his first two opponents from a DFS standpoint. There is no denying that his price is cheap. It is a bargain if Kawhi sits out.
: Little – POR – $3.3K – This comes with an asterisk as he is only in play if given the start again tonight. Once again, we are scrapping for value but this is projected to be one of the highest owned value plays of the slate (only if he is starting).
Other notables: House 3.7K
: Siakam – TOR – $9.0K – Only reason why Siakam did not hit value last time out at his price was due to his lack of efficiency. Tonight should be a different story though at home. He should smash value tonight and I will be going back to the well here.
: Sabonis – IND – $7.3K – Stuck here between him and Porzingis. I’ll slightly lean Sabonis here due to the far better match-up. Although Turner is back, Sabonis still performs adequately well. You are hoping for a double-double from him which is very reasonable tonight. If he is ruled out, load up Turner and my alternative Porzingis comes in place. Recall, when Doncic performs well so does Porzingis so they are correlated positively.
: Kleber – DAL – $4.2K – Here’s another one that comes with an asterisk. Only if he starts. He had an amazing performance last time out versus the Raptors where he was inserted into the starting lineup. He could be in line for another start which provides a good value piece for tonight. Otherwise, you are truly scrapping the barrel at the moment.
Other notables: Porzingis 7.5K
: Towns – MIN – $10.2K – It goes without saying that Towns will be the lowest owned of all the high-priced studs tonight. It’s definitely a tough matchup for him but he does get the benefit of having Wiggins most likely out again. Therefore, the only way Minnesota stays in this game tonight is through a strong outing by Towns.
: Turner – IND – $6.1K – I honestly love this area tonight. So many options in good spots. Turner for me is leading the pack. He gets a very positive matchup here and if Sabonis misses out, more power to him. If he doesn’t meet value at this price, then it is hard to trust Turner in any other game. But there are more great alternatives here like Whiteside, Capela, Thompson, Baynes (versus his former team), and Jordan.
: TBD – Kanter, Theis, or Zizic. Looks like it will be Zizic tonight!
Other notables: Gobert 8.2K, Capela 7.7K, Whiteside 6.7K, Thompson 5.6K, Jordan 5.7K, Baynes 5.1K