CarlitosWay's Tiers to Remember - NBA picks 11/19
New look, new take. This series of blogs will highlight my top 3 picks in each positional category categorized through the following options: stud (>8K), mid-tier (5K-8K), sleeper (<5K). Finding spots where you can take advantage of (whether price, role, injury news, etc.) is key to your success.
On the surface, it wouldn’t appear that I had a positive day but I did. It was all about mixing and matching the right players on yesterday’s slate and taking advantage of injury news. Part of it also was that some higher owned plays did not live up to expectations such as Thompson, Harden, Siakam, and George to name a few. My risky value paid off, however, Zizic underwhelmed. You would have thought he would get more minutes with both Love and Nance out facing a big NYK team. But by loading up on Dinwiddie and Sabonis in all my lines, that helped suppress the low totals on the underperforming guys. Sometimes you need that. Today a much quieter slate but we’re all in again.
*Based mostly on those mentioned in previous day’s blog
: Holiday – NO – $8.8K – I love the game total. The only thing that concerns me here is the possibility of Ingram and Ball coming back from injury tonight. Clearly, Jrue has more upside with these two out especially Ball. If Ingram is in, I can still phantom using Jrue. However, with Ball in, we’ve seen Jrue already take a back seat to him early on in the season. Either way his price is quite enticing. I can’t trust Lilliard at the moment and if he sees Jrue defense, probably a tougher match than it seems on paper.
: McCollum – POR – $7.8K – As long as Lilliard continues to struggle, I’ll take McCollum for the discount as he has been taking over. When Lilliard struggles, McCollum shines and vice-versa. That has been the trend this year and probably the reason why Portland has such a poor record. If McCollum is taking 20 shots today, I’ll take him at this price.
Rondo – LAL – $4.5K – Going to have to be different today. Clearly, everyone will gravitate toward Bowman here. I am too but as an alternative in some of my lines, I will be sticking in Rondo at this cheap price where his minutes are no longer restricted. It’s a tough matchup for sure, and thus, only in GPP’s for me but I will take a shot tonight. UPDATE: Simons – POR – $4.4K – With Lilliard out, here is a popular lock now without a question.
Other notables: Lilliard 9.2K, Bowman 4.7K, Rondo 4.5K
: Booker – PHX – $8.4K – With limited options here, I need to fill in this category. This one comes with an asterisk though. I recommend Booker only if Rubio sits out again tonight. If that happens, this should be a 40 DFS point night for Booker. He will have much more ball in his hands. I’ll remind you this happened yesterday and Booker only got to the 25 DFS point mark. Well, they faced the Celtics – they are no slouch on defense – the Kings are not the same. If not, well Lilliard replaces Jrue at PG and Jrue is inserted here.
: Burks – GSW – $5.0K – Loving his price tonight. Forget Draymond at point, he should not play point. Burks should be the one in this spot. Regardless if he starts or not, he is going to see action. Memphis is very friendly to point guards so Burks is sure to be very popular at this price. It’s between him and Bowman today – I could see people using both though.
: Carter – PHX – $3.0K – This is only if Rubio misses out again. Can’t go wrong with a minimum priced play who probably would start again at PG. I’ll take the savings regardless of the outcome.
Other notables: SGA 6.1K
: James – LAL – $11.1K – Goes without saying he is the only play in this category. Price is super high on today’s slate versus a tough defense who shut down PG13 last night. It could be easy to pay up for him tonight and you aren’t wrong doing so as he is a comfortable play. I myself though may just go a bit more balanced as those $8-9K ranges are capable of all breaking out tonight.
: Ingram – NO – $7.2K – Will Ingram be back or not? If he is, he looks quite cheap for the player he means to this team. If he’s out, it affects a whole lot making their role players much more viable. Bogdanovic is close behind in being a nice play in this range. I just like Ingram’s upside more if he plays.
: Cam Johnson – PHX – $3.7K or Little – POR – $3.5K – If Little starts again, even with Anthony being available to play, he remains super cheap. If Little does not start, a pivot to be made is Johnson. By looking at his game log, he has been getting decent run and he has been respectable in his fantasy outings. If this continues tonight, I like the trend and may throw him in as a value play especially if Little does not start.
Other notables: Redick 5.1K, Moore 4.6K, Bogdanovic 7.1K
: Davis – LAL – $9.8K – Will I use him today? Probably not. So why is he on here? He is the only guy that fits here. His right shoulder must be super sore to explain his poor performances. It could also be the way he is being used on this team. Something is wrong. He probably will be very low owned if you are wanting to pick him though.
: Paschall – GSW – $5.9K – I love me some Holmes and/or Bjelica as they will be needed tonight against Baynes/Kaminsky duo. Problem is it is a guessing game as to who outperforms the other. Paschall seems like a more safer pick in this range knowing Russell is out today. Paschall has a 22.5% usage rate over his last four and with Russell out last game, this climbed to 28%. The price is there for the taking.
: Melli – NO – $4.4K – With Okarfor and Favors out, Melli had to step up last game playing 28 minutes. I assume this will be the same thing tonight and although his price crept up, he looks like decent value once again tonight. Portland has bigs to contend with – Hayes cannot do it all.
Other notables: Holmes 5.8K, Bjelica 5.5K
: Whiteside – POR – $6.3K – As long as this game stays close, this should be a smash spot for Whiteside. He will be going up against Hayes who he should take advantage of. In addition, the rebounding rate should be much higher against this fast paced Pelicans team. His price is too low to ignore.
: Hayes – NO – $4.9K – With that said, on the opposite side, Hayes will start once again and most likely play 30+ minutes at this price. He will be in many lineups. Though if you want to consider pivots, there are some cheap centers today such as Adams and Baynes, or if you want to get risky look at Noel.
Other notables: JV 6.8K, Baynes 4.9K, Adams 4.9K, Noel 4.0K