CarlitosWay's Tiers to Remember - NBA picks

New look, new take. This series of blogs will highlight my top 3 picks in each positional category categorized through the following options: stud (>8K), mid-tier (5K-8K), sleeper (<5K). Finding spots where you can take advantage of (whether price, role, injury news, etc.) is key to your success.

Wednesday Recap

When did the NBA become this non-competitive? Blowout after blowout. I guess when one domino falls, so do the rest and that’s what happened with my lines. Most players picked were in those uncontested games. Not to mention the horrible performance by Doncic. In all honesty though, based on my chart below, I should have done better – the problem was my selection of players was not optimal at all. A bunch of those players hit 6x value but most of my lines were filled with the ones that only hit 3x – that tells it all. Least my worst performance came in 8 days into the season – I can live with that trend. Time to get back on the horse today! I don’t see much blowout risk tonight but we shall see.

*Based mostly on those mentioned in previous day’s blog

December 31


Stud: SGA – $8.1K – The pace will be higher for OKC due to the matchup against the Pelicans. Harden is out of the conversation tonight with everyone back for the Rockets. SGA is at a reasonable price to reach value considering he owns 29% usage on the team. The next closest is Hill at 21% so that there already tells you a whole lot. He’s looking like a strong cash play tonight.

Mid-Tier: Wall – $7.1K – Fox is my top pick here and he should be on everyone’s radar but I mean, Wall at $7.1K. The man has been having a nice rest over the start of this season. Expect big minutes for him tonight. I love the idea of pairing both Fox and Wall tonight and just stacking this game altogether. They just both seem underpriced for the matchup today.

Sleeper/Value: Hill – $4.7K – Many areas will be scarce today in terms of value and this is another one. I don’t expect Hill to continue to be this efficient going forward but he has another case today for a reasonable value play. His price is still under $5K for a starter and he will enjoy an uptick in pace today versus the Pelicans. Therefore, the opportunity is there even if he doesn’t perform as well as he has in his first two games. He is also coming off a game’s rest, so he should be ready to play bigger minutes.


Stud: Harden – $11K – Only two viable options in this positional category price range. Booker has not been doing enough to meet his price tag, so Harden is really the better option. However, I will not be going here tonight. I love the balanced mid-range approach for today’s slate. Harden has Wall and Cousins back so expect his usage to go down a bit. He will still produce but not for this price tag.

Mid-Tier: VanVleet – $7.2K – The Raptors cannot afford to go 0-4 to start the season especially against the Knicks. I am expecting a ton of minutes to be played by their starters tonight and VanVleet should lead the pack. I will reserve this play for GPPs but if he finally finds himself, he can easily pay off his salary. I like the potential for his high minutes making him my most viable play in this range.

Sleeper/Value: Clarkson – $4.8K – I find this price a bit strange for Clarkson who leads the bench usage at 25.5%. He can easily reach value here based on his first three performances. Sure, he is sometimes scoring dependent but it’s not like he fails much. Considering the limited value today, I think he makes for an optimal play below the $5K range.


Stud: Ingram – $8K – Coming off a sour performance, I expect the Pelicans to be better tonight and that encompasses all of their players. Ingram got off to a hot start last game but then the Pelicans faded and it halted his fire. Price is affordable tonight, though he probably doesn’t crack my top five. I may rather turn to the Fox and Wall combo, so Ingram is reserved for GPP only. He does lead the team though with a 29% usage rate.

Mid-Tier: Bazley – $5.7K – Although Barnes has impressed, it also seems out of the norm for him to be doing so well fantasy wise. Given OKC’s below average squad and considering their positive matchup tonight, I give Bazley the edge as he should see 25+ minutes and you can guarantee that he gets it done on both ends of the floor. This is also another great game to stack.

Sleeper/Value: O’Neale – $3.8K – A range where I am not highly interested. The value on this slate is weak at the moment but O’Neale does make the shortlist in this case just because he is playing over 30 minutes per game. He is not the best of fantasy producers but you won’t find high minute players like this under the $4K range. Be cautious, but I understand the play for value in price here.


Stud: Randle – $8.8K – I trust Randle more than I do Siakam in this range. Will I go here tonight? I have my doubts. But if I had to pick someone in this positional range it would be Randle. He has been a monster as of late and playing huge minutes. This should continue tonight but I think it will be less of a ceiling game for him.

Mid-Tier: Zion – $7.9K – The mid range is filled with many solid plays, Zion being another one of them. All he really gets you are points and boards, you cannot expect much else. But that’s enough to pay off his below $8K price tag. I think I’d rather go elsewhere tonight but expect him to be lesser owned than usual and he makes for a great pivot over higher priced Randle.

Sleeper/Value: Johnson – $4.7K – Stay away from this area. There is absolutely no one of value here. In order to complete my blog, I have to list someone so Johnson it is. He has been doing impressively well off the bench in somewhat limited minutes. Tonight’s match-up definitely isn’t the greatest for someone who gets under 25 minutes per game, but there is reason behind going this way. For me though, full fade in this positional price range.


Stud: Embiid – $10K – I think I would much rather have Embiid tonight over Harden even if Embiid’s individual matchup is that much harder. From past game logs against Vucevic, Embiid has always produced a double-double. So that already gives me comfort if going this way. In turn, you can also go Vuc for much less but I expect a greater chance of a ceiling game from Joel than Vuc. Joel also owns a 30% usage rate. I actually like this pick if you can find a promising value play to pair up with him today.

Mid-Tier: Gobert – $7.5K – Gobert seems a bit under priced today. He has been hitting 40 fantasy points per game which means at this price he will hit over 5x value. Ayton is a nice match-up for him because everything stays within the key so board opportunities are numerous. I don’t see much of an issue going here, seems a bit too good to be true but I’ll take my chances.

Sleeper/Value: Cousins – $5K – This is a very strange price. He might be the biggest lock for everyone today even if he doesn’t start over Wood. He is a huge fantasy point per minute producer and that was evident during the preseason. With limited value on the slate, at $5K, Cousins makes for one of the best plays on paper. In what should be the highest scoring match of the slate, you definitely want a lot of ownership in it, and Cousins is a great piece.

Best of luck to all! Follow me on twitter @CarlitosWay_DFS.

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